Jay Harry — OGILVIE

Jay Harry2B New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 24 L/R 5'11" / 195 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION295 act + 196 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .267 / .361

PA196

HR5

K%27

BB%5

BABIP281

ISO142

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	117	105	33	7	1	1	7	12	4	4	1	314	379	429	808	114	344	10	6	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	117	101	34	8	1	1	11	8	4	4	1	337	422	465	888	129	355	7	9	396	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	448	407	64	14	1	8	24	141	12	5	5	157	226	256	481	98	213	31	5	211	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	448	395	84	23	1	12	36	97	12	5	5	213	298	367	665	154	247	22	8	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	2 teams	—	366	340	52	10	1	5	22	110	3	9	3	153	211	232	443	79	208	30	6	201	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	2 teams	—	366	326	65	12	1	5	36	75	3	9	3	199	285	288	573	89	243	20	10	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AA	TOR	—	295	279	76	18	3	11	10	79	4	1	1	272	307	477	784	204	342	27	3	335	115	+5	-0	+0	+1	+8	1.4
YTD	24	AA	TOR	—	295	274	88	22	4	13	15	63	4	1	1	321	365	573	938	252	377	21	5	405	168	+23	-0	+0	+1	+8	3.3
ROS	24	AA	TOR	2%	196	182	40	9	1	5	9	54	3	2	1	219	267	361	628	142	281	27	5	279	72	-6	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.0
ROS	24	MLB	TOR	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		282	25	0	270	65	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	AA	TOR	—	299	283	77	18	3	11	10	80	4	1	1	272	306	473	780	201	342	27	3	334	114	+5	-0	+0	+1	+8	1.4
TOT	24	AA	TOR	—	491	461	116	27	4	16	19	133	7	3	2	251	291	431	722	180	318	27	4	313	97	-1	-0	+0	+2	+14	1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	TOR	31%	370	344	76	16	2	10	18	101	5	3	2	221	270	366	636	145	281	27	5	281	73	-11	-0	+0	+1	+10	0.0
2028	26	MLB	TOR	45%	407	378	85	18	3	11	21	110	5	4	2	225	275	376	650	151	282	27	5	285	76	-11	+0	+0	+1	+12	0.2
2029	27	MLB	TOR	49%	420	389	87	18	3	11	23	113	5	4	2	224	276	370	646	147	282	27	5	287	78	-10	+0	+0	+1	+12	0.3
2030	28	MLB	TOR	52%	425	393	88	19	3	11	24	114	5	3	2	224	277	372	649	148	282	27	6	287	78	-11	-0	-1	+2	+12	0.2
2031	29	MLB	TOR	52%	420	388	85	18	2	11	24	114	5	3	2	219	273	361	634	142	281	27	6	285	76	-11	-0	-1	+1	+12	0.1
2027	25	MLB	TOR	31%	115	108	24	5	1	3	5	31	1	1	1	222	263	370	634	148	283	27	4	273	67	-4	-0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2028	26	MLB	TOR	45%	181	168	38	8	1	5	9	49	2	2	1	226	274	375	649	149	283	27	5	277	70	-6	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.0
2029	27	MLB	TOR	49%	207	191	43	9	1	6	11	56	3	2	1	225	278	377	655	152	284	27	5	279	72	-7	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.0
2030	28	MLB	TOR	52%	219	202	46	10	1	6	12	59	3	2	1	228	281	376	657	149	284	27	5	279	72	-7	+0	-0	+1	+6	-0.0
2031	29	MLB	TOR	52%	217	200	44	9	1	6	12	59	3	2	1	220	274	365	639	145	283	27	6	277	70	-7	+0	-1	+1	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	943	873	196	41	5	26	49	255	12	9	5	225	275	372	647	148	285	27	5	277	70	-32	-0	-1	+3	+27	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	602	134	28	3	18	34	176	8	6	3	223	273	369	642	146	282	27	5	277	70	-22	+0	-1	+2	+18	-0.2
Career	—			—	3169	2926	610	129	17	73	172	869	47	37	20	208	264	339	602	131	268	27	5	267	63	-134	-1	-2	+11	+90	-3.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	600	124	26	3	15	35	178	10	8	4	207	262	335	597	128	265	27	5	267	63	-28	+0	-0	+2	+18	-0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	117	101	34	8	1	1	11	8	4	4	1	337	422	465	888	129	355	7	9	396	161	+8	+0	—	—	+3	1.2
2024	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	448	395	84	23	1	12	36	97	12	5	5	213	298	367	665	154	247	22	8	298	86	-7	-1	—	—	+13	0.5
2025	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	141	124	19	3	0	2	15	33	2	4	0	153	255	226	481	73	191	23	11	231	35	-10	+1	—	—	+4	-0.6
2025	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	225	202	46	9	1	3	21	42	1	5	3	228	304	327	630	99	272	19	9	287	78	-6	-0	—	—	+6	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jose Castillolast yr '08 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,059 PA	5	2,059	39	13	254	296	379	+7	-14	1.9	1.9
	/162	664	13	4	254	296	379	+2.4	-4.5	0.6	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	945	25	8	223	272	371	+3	+2	0.5	0.5
	/162	664	18	6	223	272	371	+2.4	+1.4	0.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jay Harry (OGILVIE)	24	40	30	45	40	251/291/431	180	318	16	3	27%	4%	97	+1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rodrigo Aguirre 2008 · AAA	24	42	39→30	44→45	42	206/245/292	86	253	7	10	22%	5%	43	-2.2	251/295/361	110	282	9	6	14%	5%	83	+0.6	267/312/347	80	297	4	2	11%	6%	82	+0.2
✕Noe Becerra 2011 · AAA	24	44	41→30	45→40	46	216/269/309	93	264	9	9	22%	7%	59	-1.1	232/278/315	83	267	6	6	15%	5%	63	-0.8	274/319/333	59	310	3	0	12%	5%	84	+0.2
✕Bryant Flete 2017 · AA	24	42→44	39→40	47→50	44	200/257/286	86	265	5	6	26%	6%	47	-1.9	210/267/288	78	287	5	6	27%	6%	53	-1.5	207/269/273	66	287	5	4	28%	6%	47	-1.0
✕Michael Pérez 2017 · AA	24	38	40→50	43→40	42	187/244/278	90	253	7	4	28%	7%	40	-2.4	218/272/327	109	286	10	3	26%	7%	65	-0.7	221/281/340	119	284	13	0	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Francisco Arcia 2014 · AA	24	42	41→40	45→40	42	207/261/303	96	265	9	5	25%	6%	54	-1.4	223/270/296	73	288	5	4	23%	5%	56	-1.3	224/271/278	54	294	3	2	23%	4%	48	-0.9
✕LJ Talley 2021 · A	24	38→48	43→45	50	41	193/248/299	105	257	11	6	29%	6%	48	-1.9	219/279/338	119	279	13	9	25%	7%	71	-0.3	216/280/332	116	270	13	10	24%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Tanner Allen 2022 · A	24	40	42→50	44→45	43	202/256/306	104	251	10	7	24%	6%	53	-1.5	204/260/310	106	250	10	7	22%	6%	56	-1.3	201/260/306	105	244	11	7	22%	6%	50	-0.8
✕Anthony Bemboom 2014 · AA	24	40	40→45	45	42	199/247/279	80	247	9	4	23%	5%	42	-2.3	210/252/304	94	261	9	5	23%	5%	50	-1.8	209/279/326	117	268	12	2	26%	8%	66	-0.2
✕Livan Soto 2022 · AA	22	36→46	40	50	41	181/235/274	93	246	8	11	29%	6%	36	-2.7	225/291/315	90	302	7	9	26%	8%	70	-0.3	236/307/320	84	310	7	8	24%	9%	76	+0.0
✕Austin Davidson 2016 · A	23	37→40	43→45	41→45	43	188/254/291	103	226	11	8	22%	5%	50	-1.8	219/283/334	115	270	10	7	22%	7%	72	-0.2	227/291/351	124	279	11	6	22%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Dom Nuñez 2019 · AA	24	38→44	43→45	46→45	46	192/260/294	102	242	12	9	26%	8%	52	-1.6	187/269/327	140	259	16	7	33%	9%	66	-0.6	151/250/285	133	213	15	2	34%	11%	43	-1.1
✕Colton Welker 2022 · MLB	24	39→49	44→40	47→45	43	199/253/311	113	254	12	5	27%	6%	53	-1.5	220/305/319	99	291	9	8	25%	9%	78	+0.2	209/330/239	30	289	0	6	23%	13%	67	-0.2
✕Raynel Delgado 2023 · AA	23	40→50	39→40	49→60	43	195/265/283	88	276	7	15	30%	7%	51	-1.7	229/292/326	97	319	8	23	29%	7%	73	-0.1	242/304/336	94	333	8	32	28%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Alika Williams 2023 · AAA	24	43→45	41→45	44→45	44	214/271/309	96	275	9	7	25%	6%	60	-1.0	223/277/326	103	287	9	7	24%	6%	67	-0.5	242/291/349	107	304	9	4	22%	5%	75	+0.0
✕J.C. Escarra 2019 · A	24	40→46	38→45	47→45	48	191/271/274	83	251	5	5	25%	8%	52	-1.6	198/257/293	95	247	10	4	23%	6%	50	-1.7	223/294/353	130	256	11	4	17%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Taylor Grzelakowski 2018 · A	24	43	41→45	50→30	42	210/261/306	96	282	8	8	28%	6%	55	-1.4	214/275/307	93	325	6	3	33%	7%	61	-1.0	207/272/296	89	313	6	1	33%	8%	55	-0.7
✕Bryan Holaday 2012 · AA	24	41	41→45	48→40	40	201/257/296	95	274	9	7	29%	6%	51	-1.7	214/263/302	88	270	7	5	23%	5%	55	-1.4	223/289/353	130	256	14	2	19%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Dallas Poulk 2011 · A	23	42	40→30	50	44	204/263/298	94	276	7	8	28%	7%	53	-1.5	210/276/281	71	300	3	9	28%	8%	54	-1.4	203/274/265	61	294	1	8	29%	8%	47	-1.3
✕Joey DeMichele 2015 · AA	24	42→47	39→40	48→50	40	202/247/288	86	272	5	9	27%	5%	43	-2.2	211/257/309	98	296	7	8	29%	5%	53	-1.5	209/256/312	102	295	7	7	30%	5%	51	-1.5
✕Ty Moore 2017 · A	24	42→49	38→40	45	44	200/249/280	80	244	5	7	20%	5%	43	-2.2	228/281/322	94	286	8	8	22%	6%	68	-0.5	234/289/322	88	292	8	8	22%	6%	69	-0.3