Brycen Mautz

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 26 LHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEFG #420

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+STL	24	24	122	5.18	4.29	23.8%	8.7%	—	K 18.3% · BB 10.0% · FIP 5.39
2025	24	AASTL	25	25	115	2.98	3.10	28.6%	7.1%	—	K 23.2% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.78
2026	25	MIX2 levels	39	17	101	4.10	4.51	22.8%	16.1%	0.1	K 20.2% · BB 14.7% · FIP 4.53
2027PROJ	26	MLBSTL	12	12	75	4.60	4.77	20.3%	11.7%	0.1
2028PROJ64% MLB	27	MLBSTL	11	11	68	4.68	4.76	20.4%	11.4%	0.1
2029PROJ76% MLB	28	MLBSTL	13	13	80	4.74	4.80	20.4%	11.2%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%90

K%67

FB Velo36

xwOBA vs12

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsBrad Mills (age 26) · Erik Rivera (age 23) · Hung-Chih Kuo (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.60

FIP4.77

K%20.3%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP75

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL—50

CMD5055

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p9032.6%

p6725.3%

xwOBA vs

p120.357

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	23	23	104	456	115	45	4	100%	4.5	18.7%	11.6%	7.0%	1.1%	3.98	3.62	—
2023	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	23	23	104	456	115	45	4	100%	4.5	25.2%	9.9%	15.4%	0.9%	3.98	2.69	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	122	538	128	47	20	100%	5.1	18.3%	10.0%	8.3%	4.7%	5.18	5.39	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	122	538	128	47	20	100%	5.1	18.3%	10.0%	8.3%	4.7%	5.18	5.39	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	24	24	122	538	128	47	20	100%	5.1	23.8%	8.7%	15.1%	3.7%	5.18	4.29	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	115	468	134	33	13	100%	4.6	23.2%	7.8%	15.4%	3.0%	2.98	3.78	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	115	468	134	33	13	100%	4.6	23.2%	7.8%	15.4%	3.0%	2.98	3.78	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	25	25	115	468	134	33	13	100%	4.6	28.6%	7.1%	21.6%	2.8%	2.98	3.10	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	17	101	473	108	76	10	44%	2.6	20.2%	14.7%	5.5%	2.3%	4.10	4.53	+0.0
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	17	101	473	108	76	10	44%	2.6	20.2%	14.7%	5.5%	2.3%	4.10	4.53	+0.0
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	17	101	473	108	76	10	44%	2.6	22.8%	16.1%	6.8%	2.1%	4.10	4.51	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	1	15	75	19	11	2	12%	1.9	25.3%	14.7%	10.7%	2.7%	5.87	4.47	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	STL	12	12	75	317	64	37	9	100%	6.2	20.3%	11.7%	8.6%	2.8%	4.60	4.77	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	106	446	91	51	13	100%	5.9	20.4%	11.4%	9.1%	2.9%	4.68	4.76	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	106	446	91	50	13	100%	5.9	20.4%	11.2%	9.2%	3.0%	4.74	4.80	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	101	426	85	48	13	100%	5.9	19.9%	11.3%	8.6%	3.1%	4.85	4.94	-0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	95	400	77	46	13	100%	5.9	19.3%	11.5%	7.8%	3.3%	5.01	5.13	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	68	287	59	33	8	100%	6.2	20.4%	11.4%	9.1%	2.9%	4.68	4.76	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	80	338	69	38	10	100%	6.2	20.4%	11.2%	9.2%	3.0%	4.74	4.80	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	83	350	70	40	11	100%	5.9	19.9%	11.3%	8.6%	3.1%	4.85	4.94	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	82	346	67	40	11	100%	5.9	19.3%	11.5%	7.8%	3.3%	5.01	5.13	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	53	328	1394	283	161	42	88%	5.5	20.3%	11.5%	8.8%	3.0%	4.88	4.52	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	32	200	851	173	98	26	88%	5.5	20.3%	11.5%	8.8%	3.0%	4.88	4.52	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		111	89	441	1935	388	213	55	80%	4.0	20.0%	11.0%	9.0%	2.9%	4.08	4.37	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	40	200	877	176	97	25	80%	4.0	20.0%	11.0%	9.0%	2.9%	4.08	4.37	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brycen Mautz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	20.3%	11.7%	2.8%	—	4.83	20.3%	9.0%	312	+0.06	—	—	—
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	84
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	76
Hung-Chih Kuo L 2007 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	19.3%	10.0%	2.1%	.333	2.04	29.8%	22.7%	170	-1.87	1.63	287	75
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	72
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	72
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	70
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	70
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	70
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	70
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	70
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	69
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	69
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	69
Josh Outman L 2011 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	13.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.302	3.80	21.8%	11.8%	123	-0.23	2.95	380	68
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	68
Brian Tallet L 2003 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	10.3%	9.2%	2.3%	.309	4.43	16.2%	4.4%	54	-0.22	2.59	443	68
Rodney Boone L 2024 · 4.56 FIP	24	SP-	4.56	18.1%	9.8%	3.2%	.221	3.64	18.5%	10.8%	78	-0.92	3.64	311	67
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	67
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	67
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	99	20.3%	11.5%	1.16	4.81
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Mickey Mahler ('77-'86, 0 WAR*)	2.0	81	20.4%*	10.3%*	1.20*	4.87*
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81
Steven Brault ('22)	1.8	59	18.8%	11.3%	0.97	4.73
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64