Carlos Medina

P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	21	MIX3 levels	30	14	81	4.76	3.73	19.8%	8.2%	—	K 15.0% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.54
2027PROJ	22	MLBSD	50	0	53	4.88	4.88	17.1%	9.5%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSD	35	0	37	4.71	4.63	19.0%	9.0%	-0.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBSD	51	0	54	4.56	4.48	20.2%	8.7%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJohn Matthews (age 23) · Nick Gallagher (age 22) · Connor Johnstone (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%17.1%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%7.5%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	14	81	354	70	29	8	47%	2.7	15.0%	9.6%	5.5%	2.7%	4.76	4.54	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	14	81	354	70	29	8	47%	2.7	15.0%	9.6%	5.5%	2.7%	4.76	4.54	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	14	81	354	70	29	8	47%	2.7	19.8%	8.2%	11.6%	2.3%	4.76	3.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	SD	50	0	53	224	38	21	7	0%	1.1	17.1%	9.5%	7.5%	3.0%	4.88	4.88	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	72	0	76	320	61	29	9	0%	1.1	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	2.9%	4.71	4.63	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	74	0	78	328	66	29	10	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.7%	11.5%	2.9%	4.56	4.48	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	75	0	79	333	69	28	10	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.6%	12.3%	2.9%	4.46	4.40	+0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	75	0	79	333	70	28	10	0%	1.1	21.1%	8.5%	12.6%	2.9%	4.41	4.37	+0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	74	0	78	328	69	28	10	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.6%	12.5%	3.0%	4.41	4.41	+0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	SD	72	0	75	318	67	28	10	0%	1.0	21.0%	8.8%	12.2%	3.1%	4.46	4.50	+0.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	SD	68	0	72	304	63	27	10	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.0%	11.8%	3.2%	4.56	4.63	-0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	SD	64	0	68	285	58	27	10	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	3.4%	4.71	4.80	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	35	0	37	156	30	14	5	0%	1.1	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	2.9%	4.71	4.63	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	51	0	54	228	46	20	7	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.7%	11.5%	2.9%	4.56	4.48	+0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	61	0	64	270	56	23	8	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.6%	12.3%	2.9%	4.46	4.40	+0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	66	0	69	291	62	25	8	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.5%	12.6%	2.9%	4.41	4.37	+0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	67	0	70	296	62	25	9	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.6%	12.5%	3.0%	4.41	4.41	+0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	SD	66	0	69	291	61	26	9	0%	1.0	21.0%	8.8%	12.2%	3.1%	4.46	4.50	+0.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	SD	64	0	67	283	59	25	9	0%	1.0	20.8%	9.0%	11.8%	3.2%	4.56	4.63	-0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	SD	60	0	63	266	54	25	9	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	3.4%	4.71	4.80	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		470	0	494	2086	431	184	63	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.8%	11.9%	3.0%	4.52	4.14	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	74	26	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.8%	11.9%	3.0%	4.52	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		30	14	81	354	53	34	10	47%	2.7	15.0%	9.6%	5.5%	2.7%	4.76	4.54	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	34	200	870	131	83	24	47%	2.7	15.0%	9.6%	5.5%	2.7%	4.76	4.54	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	17.1%	9.5%	3.0%	—	4.50	20.0%	11.3%	232	-0.38	—	—	—
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	87
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	86
Connor Johnstone R 2018 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.51	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.11	3.78	319	85
Marc Brakeman R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.92	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.07	3.85	156	85
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	85
Adam Bernero R 2000 · 4.15 FIP	23	SW	4.15	14.2%	8.5%	2.1%	.283	4.88	14.2%	6.3%	247	+0.73	3.45	376	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	84
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	84
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	15.4%	8.7%	3.3%	.310	6.28	16.6%	1.7%	52	+1.57	4.59	120	84
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	433	84
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	83
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	83
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	83
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	83
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	82
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	82
Chad Bettis R 2013 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP-	4.38	14.4%	8.7%	2.6%	.318	3.81	17.4%	10.4%	365	-0.57	3.67	672	82
A.J. Bogucki R 2017 · 3.84 FIP	22	SW	3.84	15.5%	8.4%	1.8%	.308	4.40	19.2%	8.2%	87	+0.56	3.84	142	82
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	82
Luis Rujano R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	17.0%	12.3%	2.4%	.361	4.80	17.9%	-0.8%	97	+0.26	4.54	203	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	73	20.3%	8.9%	1.17	4.56
Aaron Heilman ('11)	3.1	70	20.1%	9.4%	1.03	4.40
Bobby Ayala ('99)	2.9	72	21.3%	9.7%	1.11	4.78
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50
Ed Vande Berg ('82-'88, 3 WAR*)	2.6	74	19.6%*	8.8%*	1.07*	4.07*
Frank DiPino ('81-'93, 3 WAR*)	3.5	78	22.5%*	9.0%*	1.00*	4.44*
Randy Moffitt ('72-'83, 4 WAR*)	3.9	78	19.4%*	8.3%*	1.08*	4.19*