Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | FCL Braves | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 19.0% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 2.70 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | FCL Braves | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 19.0% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 2.70 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 0 | 35 | 146 | 51 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.4% | 11.1% | 19.3% | 6.6% | 3.63 | 5.58 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 0 | 35 | 146 | 51 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.9% | 12.3% | 22.6% | 4.1% | 3.63 | 3.97 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 54 | 212 | 76 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.1% | 14.9% | 13.2% | 4.6% | 2.52 | 5.14 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 54 | 212 | 76 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 35.8% | 12.7% | 23.1% | 1.9% | 2.52 | 2.75 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 11 | 0 | 17 | 77 | 21 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.1% | 18.6% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 6.35 | 7.01 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ATL | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 75 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.0% | 12.5% | 17.5% | 3.4% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ATL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.0% | 12.5% | 17.5% | 3.4% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 76 | 328 | 96 | 44 | 12 | — | — | 29.4% | 13.5% | 15.8% | 3.8% | 4.81 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 30.0% | 12.5% | 17.5% | 3.4% | 4.37 | 3.99 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 73 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.3% | 12.2% | 17.1% | 3.4% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 69 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 12.2% | 16.6% | 3.4% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 52 | 0 | 54 | 229 | 65 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 12.2% | 16.0% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.3% | 12.2% | 17.1% | 3.4% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 12.2% | 16.6% | 3.4% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.3% | 12.2% | 16.0% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 91 | 0 | 95 | 403 | 116 | 49 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.7% | 12.2% | 16.5% | 3.5% | 4.46 | 4.13 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 243 | 103 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 12.2% | 16.5% | 3.5% | 4.46 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 85 | 0 | 110 | 456 | 128 | 66 | 24 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.1% | 14.5% | 13.6% | 5.3% | 3.43 | 5.48 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 0 | 200 | 827 | 232 | 120 | 44 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.1% | 14.5% | 13.6% | 5.3% | 3.43 | 5.48 | -0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Bourassa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 30.0% | 12.5% | 3.4% | — | 4.49 | 28.8% | 16.6% | 170 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Jon Edwards R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.7% | .264 | 2.30 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.24 | 2.30 | 132 | 88 |
| Peyton Gray R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 87 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.01 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.02 | 3.07 | 363 | 86 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.57 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .299 | 4.42 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 87 | -0.15 | 3.74 | 163 | 86 |
| Eric Orze R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 28.8% | 12.7% | 3.1% | .261 | 3.34 | 22.7% | 12.8% | 112 | -0.62 | 3.06 | 331 | 86 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.48 | 29.2% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.47 | 27.4% | 21.2% | 41 | +1.99 | 3.48 | 138 | 85 |
| Adisyn Coffey R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.85 | 26.5% | 12.1% | 4.5% | .310 | 4.17 | 19.7% | 7.4% | 44 | -0.68 | 2.89 | 229 | 82 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.52 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .245 | 5.01 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 81 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .295 | 2.74 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.72 | 2.74 | 239 | 81 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 80 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.89 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.2% | .310 | 4.58 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.69 | 3.89 | 272 | 80 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .214 | 3.04 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 55 | -0.50 | 2.59 | 156 | 80 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 79 |
| Brad Brach R 2029 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.09 | 2.73 | 410 | 79 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.69 | 26.8% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.84 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 66 | +0.15 | 3.31 | 166 | 79 |
| Matt Jachec R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 28.3% | 9.9% | 3.6% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 120 | 79 |
| Argenis Angulo R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 27.6% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .263 | 6.61 | 21.0% | 5.6% | 58 | +2.49 | 3.07 | 245 | 79 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.27 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.07 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.20 | 2.74 | 178 | 79 |
| Matt Blackham R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.90 | 25.4% | 12.0% | 2.6% | .206 | 7.09 | 26.9% | 8.7% | 25 | +3.19 | 2.08 | 187 | 79 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.03 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 5.0% | .241 | 3.29 | 29.4% | 18.8% | 60 | -1.74 | 2.45 | 394 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 29.1% | 12.3% | 1.33 | 4.43 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Michael Feliz ('21) | 5 | 47 | 30.5% | 9.8% | 1.48 | 5.05 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |