Frankeli Arias

P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 24 LHP 6'0" / 170 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ACWS	28	8	71	4.92	3.94	24.4%	10.3%	—	K 18.0% · BB 12.2% · FIP 5.57
2025	22	A+CWS	26	17	89	3.76	4.07	18.6%	10.8%	—	K 14.4% · BB 12.4% · FIP 5.07
2026	23	MIX3 levels	39	1	45	7.05	5.23	22.6%	13.7%	—	K 16.3% · BB 16.2% · FIP 6.60
2027PROJ	24	MLBCWS	54	0	57	6.01	6.01	14.3%	15.4%	-0.9
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCWS	33	0	35	5.72	5.65	16.1%	13.9%	-0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBCWS	51	0	54	5.55	5.50	17.0%	13.4%	-0.6

Next 3 projected WAR -1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMatt Mikulski (age 24) · Matt Minnick (age 23) · Larson Kindreich (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131139vR 147

ERA6.01

FIP6.01

K%14.3%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%-1.1%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	13	5	49	201	50	12	4	38%	3.7	16.9%	7.5%	9.5%	2.3%	3.33	3.87	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	13	5	49	201	50	12	4	38%	3.7	24.9%	6.0%	18.9%	2.0%	3.33	2.85	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	13	10	54	235	52	23	6	77%	4.2	15.0%	12.2%	2.8%	1.6%	4.67	4.27	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	13	10	54	235	52	23	6	77%	4.2	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	2.6%	4.67	3.90	—
2024	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	28	8	71	320	78	33	9	29%	2.5	18.0%	12.2%	5.9%	4.5%	4.92	5.57	—
2024	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	28	8	71	320	78	33	9	29%	2.5	18.0%	12.2%	5.9%	4.5%	4.92	5.57	—
2024	21	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	28	8	71	320	78	33	9	29%	2.5	24.4%	10.3%	14.1%	2.8%	4.92	3.94	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	26	17	89	370	69	40	8	65%	3.4	14.4%	12.4%	1.9%	2.9%	3.76	5.07	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	26	17	89	370	69	40	8	65%	3.4	14.4%	12.4%	1.9%	2.9%	3.76	5.07	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	26	17	89	370	69	40	8	65%	3.4	18.6%	10.8%	7.8%	2.2%	3.76	4.07	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	1	45	212	48	29	8	3%	1.1	16.3%	16.2%	0.1%	5.1%	7.05	6.60	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	1	45	212	48	29	8	3%	1.1	16.3%	16.2%	0.1%	5.1%	7.05	6.60	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	1	45	212	48	29	8	3%	1.1	22.6%	13.7%	9.0%	3.8%	7.05	5.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CWS	54	0	57	241	34	37	8	0%	1.1	14.3%	15.4%	-1.1%	3.3%	6.01	6.01	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	77	0	81	341	55	47	11	0%	1.0	16.1%	13.9%	2.2%	3.2%	5.72	5.65	-0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	77	0	81	341	58	46	11	0%	1.0	17.0%	13.4%	3.6%	3.2%	5.55	5.50	-0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	76	0	80	336	65	42	11	0%	1.0	19.2%	12.4%	6.8%	3.2%	5.32	5.21	-0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	74	0	77	326	63	41	11	0%	1.0	19.2%	12.5%	6.7%	3.3%	5.28	5.27	-0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	CWS	70	0	74	311	59	39	11	0%	1.1	19.0%	12.7%	6.3%	3.5%	5.35	5.40	-0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	CWS	66	0	69	293	54	38	11	0%	1.1	18.6%	13.0%	5.6%	3.7%	5.48	5.57	-0.8
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	33	0	35	148	24	21	5	0%	1.1	16.1%	13.9%	2.2%	3.2%	5.72	5.65	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	51	0	54	228	39	31	7	0%	1.1	17.0%	13.4%	3.6%	3.2%	5.55	5.50	-0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	59	0	62	262	50	32	8	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.4%	6.8%	3.2%	5.32	5.21	-0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	62	0	65	274	53	34	9	0%	1.0	19.2%	12.5%	6.7%	3.3%	5.28	5.27	-0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	CWS	62	0	65	274	52	35	10	0%	1.0	19.0%	12.7%	6.3%	3.5%	5.35	5.40	-0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	CWS	59	0	62	262	49	34	10	0%	1.1	18.6%	13.0%	5.6%	3.7%	5.48	5.57	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		325	0	342	1443	265	186	49	0%	1.1	18.4%	12.9%	5.5%	3.4%	5.42	5.03	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	155	109	29	0%	1.0	18.4%	12.9%	5.5%	3.4%	5.42	5.03	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		119	41	307	1338	215	163	44	34%	2.6	16.1%	12.2%	3.9%	3.3%	4.60	5.11	-4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	27	200	871	140	106	29	34%	2.6	16.1%	12.2%	3.9%	3.3%	4.60	5.11	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Frankeli Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.01	14.3%	15.4%	3.3%	—	5.45	17.4%	4.2%	241	-0.56	—	—	—
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	84
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	78
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	75
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	75
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	75
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	74
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	74
Randy Keisler L 2000 · 5.13 FIP	24	SW	5.13	11.5%	15.4%	1.9%	.405	6.43	15.3%	0.9%	51	+1.30	5.07	135	74
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	74
Trevor Seidenberger L 2016 · 6.29 FIP	24	SU	6.29	13.1%	14.9%	4.4%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	101	74
Mason Green L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	24	SW	5.28	17.9%	16.7%	2.9%	.278	4.24	18.4%	6.3%	265	-1.04	3.68	450	73
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	73
Andre Wheeler L 2016 · 5.25 FIP	24	SU	5.25	17.5%	12.1%	3.8%	.347	5.01	14.4%	2.4%	29	-0.24	3.82	150	72
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	72
Max Schuh L 2016 · 6.12 FIP	24	SU	6.12	16.1%	17.9%	3.9%	.389	4.70	19.2%	5.6%	48	-1.42	3.10	118	72
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	72
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.35	164	72
Dan Lietz L 2018 · 5.82 FIP	24	SU	5.82	11.1%	13.2%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	188	71
Jaime Cerda L 2003 · 5.18 FIP	24	SU	5.18	13.2%	13.2%	2.8%	.275	3.92	17.2%	5.0%	65	-1.26	3.10	123	71
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	74	17.7%	13.2%	1.29	5.51
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*