Carson Jacobs — OGILVIE

Carson Jacobs P Birmingham Barons

Age 24 RHP 6'7" / 215 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%25.4%

BB%17.1%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

CMD3030

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	5	0	6	25	9	3	0	0%	1.3	36.0%	12.0%	24.0%	0.0%	1.42	1.58	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	5	0	6	25	9	3	0	0%	1.3	36.0%	12.0%	24.0%	0.0%	1.42	1.58	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	5	0	6	25	9	3	0	0%	1.3	36.0%	12.0%	24.0%	0.0%	1.42	1.68	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	38	164	58	24	0	0%	1.2	21.5%	18.4%	3.1%	0.0%	2.37	3.62	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	38	164	58	24	0	0%	1.2	21.5%	18.4%	3.1%	0.0%	2.37	3.62	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	0	38	164	58	24	0	0%	1.2	35.4%	14.6%	20.7%	0.0%	2.37	1.94	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	58	258	85	36	7	0%	1.3	25.5%	15.7%	9.8%	3.4%	4.53	4.78	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	58	258	85	36	7	0%	1.3	25.5%	15.7%	9.8%	3.4%	4.53	4.78	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	58	258	85	36	7	0%	1.3	32.9%	14.0%	19.0%	2.7%	4.53	3.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	32	0	44	201	62	43	2	0%	1.4	25.0%	23.5%	1.5%	1.2%	3.71	4.63	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	32	0	44	201	62	43	2	0%	1.4	25.0%	23.5%	1.5%	1.2%	3.71	4.63	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	CWS	32	0	44	201	62	43	2	0%	1.4	30.8%	21.4%	9.5%	1.0%	3.71	3.75	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CWS	6	0	6	26	7	4	1	0%	1.0	25.4%	17.1%	8.3%	3.0%	5.16	5.16	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	50	227	69	47	3	—	—	30.2%	20.9%	9.3%	1.2%	3.89	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CWS	65	0	68	287	73	44	9	0%	1.0	25.6%	15.3%	10.2%	3.0%	4.98	4.91	-0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	65	0	68	287	73	42	9	0%	1.0	25.6%	14.8%	10.8%	3.0%	4.88	4.85	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	64	0	67	283	72	41	9	0%	1.0	25.5%	14.6%	10.9%	3.1%	4.85	4.86	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	62	0	65	274	69	40	9	0%	1.0	25.3%	14.6%	10.7%	3.2%	4.89	4.93	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	CWS	29	0	30	127	32	19	4	0%	1.0	25.6%	15.3%	10.2%	3.0%	4.98	4.91	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	43	0	45	190	49	28	6	0%	1.0	25.6%	14.8%	10.8%	3.0%	4.88	4.85	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	50	0	52	220	56	32	7	0%	1.0	25.5%	14.6%	10.9%	3.1%	4.85	4.86	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	52	0	55	232	59	34	7	0%	1.1	25.3%	14.6%	10.7%	3.2%	4.89	4.93	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		174	0	182	769	196	114	24	0%	1.0	25.5%	14.8%	10.7%	3.1%	4.89	4.50	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	215	125	26	0%	1.1	25.5%	14.8%	10.7%	3.1%	4.89	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		112	0	146	648	160	121	11	0%	1.3	24.7%	18.7%	6.0%	1.7%	3.58	4.32	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	0	200	890	220	166	15	0%	1.3	24.7%	18.7%	6.0%	1.7%	3.58	4.32	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Jacobs (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	25.4%	17.1%	3.0%	—	4.87	25.5%	10.6%	203	-0.29	—	—	—
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	90
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	90
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	90
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	87
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	86
Carlos Contreras R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.46	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.29	107	86
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	458	86
Shane Broyles R 2016 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	24.3%	15.3%	1.9%	.328	3.62	26.4%	17.1%	108	-0.41	3.34	218	86
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	86
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	85
Tyler Vogel R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	22	SU	4.93	23.4%	14.3%	3.6%	.305	4.48	19.1%	6.1%	135	-0.45	3.84	200	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	84
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	84
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	84
Matt Keating R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	22	SU	4.34	23.3%	14.8%	2.4%	.346	4.63	23.2%	9.1%	157	+0.29	3.38	222	84
Riley Ferrell R 2018 · 4.38 FIP	24	SU	4.38	24.1%	15.6%	2.5%	.333	4.21	23.1%	7.4%	55	-0.17	2.85	175	84
Jonathan Sprinkle R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	24	SU	4.18	24.8%	16.3%	2.0%	.331	6.20	17.4%	-5.5%	26	+2.02	3.81	109	84
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	84
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	83
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	23.9%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	25.5%	15.3%	1.18	4.95
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99