Carson Jacobs
P
Birmingham Barons
Age 24
RHP
6'7" / 215 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135125vR 116
ERA5.13
FIP5.13
K%24.6%
BB%16.1%
K-BB%8.5%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 5 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 36.0% | 12.0% | 24.0% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 1.58 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 5 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 36.0% | 12.0% | 24.0% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 1.68 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 0 | 38 | 164 | 58 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.5% | 18.4% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 2.37 | 3.62 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 0 | 38 | 164 | 58 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 35.4% | 14.6% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 2.37 | 1.94 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 58 | 258 | 85 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.5% | 15.7% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 4.53 | 4.95 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 58 | 258 | 85 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.9% | 14.0% | 19.0% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 3.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 18 | 0 | 24 | 112 | 32 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.1% | 21.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 4.81 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 70 | 46 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 16.1% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 5.13 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CWS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 16.1% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 5.13 | 5.13 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 92 | 396 | 102 | 68 | 11 | — | — | 25.7% | 17.1% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 5.04 | 5.11 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 24.6% | 16.1% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 5.13 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 71 | 42 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 14.6% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.96 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 72 | 41 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 14.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.87 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 70 | 40 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 14.0% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 32 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 14.6% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.96 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 47 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 14.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.87 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 55 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 14.0% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 123 | 0 | 129 | 543 | 135 | 77 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 14.2% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.89 | 4.48 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 210 | 120 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 14.2% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.89 | 4.48 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 98 | 0 | 126 | 559 | 136 | 98 | 12 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.3% | 17.5% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 3.78 | 4.43 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 155 | 0 | 200 | 885 | 215 | 155 | 19 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.3% | 17.5% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 3.78 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Jacobs (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.13 | 24.6% | 16.1% | 3.1% | — | 4.86 | 24.9% | 10.7% | 203 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 93 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.90 | 26.4% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .278 | 5.86 | 20.3% | 5.0% | 58 | +0.96 | 4.90 | 103 | 90 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 90 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 90 |
| Eduardo Herrera R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.32 | 25.5% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .284 | 4.44 | 16.7% | -5.0% | 31 | +0.12 | 4.32 | 127 | 88 |
| Dakota Mekkes R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 16.7% | 1.8% | 70 | +0.30 | 2.99 | 246 | 88 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.30 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.35 | 4.30 | 107 | 88 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 88 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 88 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 87 |
| Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.2% | .301 | 4.32 | 26.4% | 12.7% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.63 | 172 | 87 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.00 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .284 | 2.56 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.44 | 1.52 | 452 | 87 |
| Colin McKee R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.08 | 24.2% | 14.7% | 3.9% | .330 | 4.37 | 27.7% | 12.9% | 97 | -0.71 | 4.10 | 148 | 87 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.59 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.41 | 4.18 | 103 | 86 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.95 | 24.3% | 15.3% | 1.8% | .328 | 3.42 | 26.4% | 17.1% | 108 | -0.53 | 3.10 | 218 | 86 |
| Riley Ferrell R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 4.28 | 23.1% | 7.4% | 55 | -0.15 | 2.83 | 175 | 85 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 85 |
| Zane Russell R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.19 | 22.7% | 18.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 5.10 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 71 | -0.09 | 4.28 | 108 | 85 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.73 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 161 | 85 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.11 | 172 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 24.8% | 14.7% | 1.19 | 4.95 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |