Austin Smith

OF Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 24 L/L 5'11" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	ATOR	99	.259/.394/.395	2	7	70	—	.200/.313/.282
2026	23	A+/ATOR	322	.241/.357/.368	6	13	70	—	.208/.303/.311
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBTOR	372	.199/.276/.311	7	8	67	0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBTOR	59	.202/.279/.319	1	1	70	-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBTOR	111	.204/.281/.323	2	2	71	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

K%99

Z-Con%99

Whiff%98

ISO84

wRC+80

wOBA76

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRiver Town (age 24) · Matt Rudick (age 24) · Tom Belza (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .273 / .309

PA170

HR3

K%22

BB%7

ISO112

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	99	81	21	5	0	2	12	12	6	7	3	259	394	395	789	136	284	12	12	364	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	116	102	30	9	0	5	5	9	6	4	1	294	363	529	892	235	278	8	4	382	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	206	164	34	5	1	1	32	37	5	9	2	207	353	268	622	61	256	18	16	294	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	99	85	17	4	0	1	8	17	6	7	3	200	313	282	595	82	235	17	8	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	116	103	27	8	0	4	4	12	6	4	1	262	327	456	784	194	248	10	3	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	206	174	31	4	1	1	22	50	5	9	2	178	289	230	518	52	228	24	11	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	99	85	17	4	0	1	8	17	6	7	3	200	313	282	595	82	239	17	8	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	99	81	21	5	0	2	12	12	6	7	3	259	394	395	789	136	284	12	12	364	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	322	278	58	12	1	5	25	62	11	13	3	209	299	313	612	104	245	19	8	271	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	322	266	64	14	1	6	37	46	11	13	3	241	357	368	725	128	265	14	11	326	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	99	85	17	4	0	1	8	17	6	7	3	200	313	282	595	82	235	17	8	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	322	283	58	12	1	5	25	62	11	13	3	205	299	307	607	102	235	19	8	271	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	99	85	17	4	0	1	8	17	6	7	3	200	313	282	595	82	235	17	8	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	322	283	58	12	1	5	25	62	11	13	3	205	299	307	607	102	235	19	8	271	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	0%	372	334	67	13	2	7	27	82	8	8	2	199	276	311	587	112	240	22	7	267	67	-15	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	30%	197	176	36	7	1	4	15	43	4	4	1	202	278	318	596	116	242	22	8	271	70	-7	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	44%	252	226	46	9	1	5	19	55	5	5	1	204	280	322	602	118	244	22	8	273	71	-9	+1	+0	-2	+5	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	30%	59	54	10	2	0	1	4	13	1	1	0	202	279	319	598	116	243	22	7	272	70	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	44%	111	100	21	4	1	2	8	24	2	2	1	204	281	323	604	118	245	22	7	274	71	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	170	154	31	6	1	3	12	37	3	3	1	201	272	312	584	110	243	22	7	273	70	-6	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	118	23	4	11	46	141	11	11	4	200	271	309	580	109	243	22	7	273	70	-23	+1	+0	-4	+14	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	1040	917	187	38	4	18	79	214	30	32	9	204	288	313	601	109	244	21	8	271	70	-22	+1	+0	-4	+13	-1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	116	24	2	11	49	134	19	20	6	202	287	309	596	106	242	21	8	271	70	-24	+1	+0	-4	+14	-1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 206 PAwOBA .292 → .237 (−55)K% 18.0% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.96%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	24.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.53%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	10.61%
HBP% /PA	2.43%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	1.87%
Singles /BIP	21.26%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.993	×0.990	19.22%
Doubles /BIP	3.94%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.993	×0.990	3.21%
Triples /BIP	0.79%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.993	×0.990	0.70%
Home runs /BIP	0.79%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	0.62%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .292 → .237; ISO .061 → .051; BABIP .256 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 116 PAwOBA .378 → .331 (−47)K% 7.8% → 10.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.76%	÷1.000	×1.350	—	—	10.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.31%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.998	3.05%
HBP% /PA	5.17%	—	×0.810	—	×0.998	4.18%
Singles /BIP	17.20%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.025	×0.998	16.02%
Doubles /BIP	9.68%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.025	×0.998	8.22%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.025	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.38%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.998	4.45%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .378 → .331; ISO .235 → .202; BABIP .278 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 99 PAwOBA .352 → .272 (−80)K% 12.1% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.12%	÷0.968	×1.360	—	—	17.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	—	7.55%
HBP% /PA	6.06%	—	×0.780	—	—	4.73%
Singles /BIP	20.29%	÷1.006	×0.920	×0.950	—	17.62%
Doubles /BIP	7.25%	÷1.047	×0.830	×0.950	—	5.46%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.910	×0.950	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.90%	÷1.284	×0.800	—	—	1.81%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 101, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .352 → .272; ISO .136 → .094; BABIP .284 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#5Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
#6Dave McCarty'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,647 PA	2.5	1,647	36	9	233*	295*	365*	-26	+16	-1.1	0.5
/162	664	15	4	-10.5	+6.6	-0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.5	340	7	7	202	275	317	-2	+0	-0.5	-0.2
/162	664	13	13	-4.0	+0.0	-1.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Austin Smith (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	197/273/309	111	240	3	3	22%	7%	67	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	40→38	44→40	55→50	47	201/283/322	121	254	11	15	25%	8%	74	-0.6	215/303/306	91	265	8	14	20%	9%	77	-0.3	215/311/283	68	261	5	15	18%	9%	73	-0.3
✕Matt Rudick 2022 · A	24	45→43	39→45	56→50	49	214/280/305	90	268	6	11	22%	8%	67	-1.1	207/291/310	103	258	8	14	22%	8%	74	-0.6	199/293/308	109	249	11	16	23%	10%	71	-0.5
✕Tom Belza 2013 · A	24	45→55	42→45	55→45	43	221/267/329	109	280	9	8	24%	6%	67	-1.1	235/283/325	90	309	6	8	25%	6%	72	-0.7	235/286/317	82	313	5	8	25%	6%	68	-0.8
✕Chantz Mack 2015 · AA	24	45→46	43→45	47→45	45	223/273/332	109	272	10	8	22%	6%	70	-0.8	213/281/321	108	291	10	5	28%	8%	72	-0.7	205/282/308	103	284	10	3	29%	9%	66	-0.8
✕Jonathan Wyatt 2009 · A	24	46	41→40	48→50	48	223/284/319	97	273	9	12	22%	8%	72	-0.7	213/263/284	71	272	5	10	22%	6%	55	-2.0	203/246/242	39	261	2	8	22%	5%	36	-2.4
✕Jacob Rhinesmith 2021 · A	25	42	42→45	50	46	208/268/315	106	256	9	11	22%	7%	65	-1.2	209/273/312	103	274	9	9	25%	7%	66	-1.1	207/276/325	118	263	10	8	24%	8%	68	-0.8
✕Jarrod Belbin 2024 · A	24	44	41→40	50	47	213/279/316	103	280	8	12	26%	8%	69	-0.9	215/281/309	94	298	7	10	28%	8%	68	-1.0	209/280/302	93	286	7	10	27%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Isaac Ballou 2015 · A	25	45→48	42→45	53→50	45	218/281/333	115	275	9	14	23%	6%	74	-0.6	221/278/324	103	287	7	13	24%	7%	70	-0.8	217/274/314	97	284	6	12	25%	7%	64	-0.8
✕Caleb Ramsey 2013 · A	24	52→59	40	52→50	47	245/288/341	96	275	6	13	14%	5%	77	-0.3	242/283/312	70	294	4	13	18%	5%	68	-1.0	244/288/307	62	311	3	7	21%	6%	67	-0.7
✕Steele Walker 2021 · A	25	45→47	43→45	48→50	44	219/275/334	115	272	9	10	23%	6%	72	-0.7	215/267/332	117	261	12	10	22%	6%	68	-1.0	205/258/319	114	245	13	10	22%	6%	59	-0.8
✕LJ Talley 2021 · A	24	38→48	43→45	50	42	195/250/305	110	253	12	6	28%	6%	56	-1.9	220/279/331	111	280	11	9	24%	7%	72	-0.7	217/281/325	107	273	11	10	24%	7%	70	-0.5
✕Danry Vasquez 2019 · AA	25	48→55	42→40	49→45	48	234/286/342	108	269	9	13	17%	6%	78	-0.3	234/293/386	152	285	18	19	24%	7%	91	+0.6	225/286/400	174	252	23	34	21%	8%	88	+0.1
✕Preston Beck 2015 · A	24	43→42	42→45	48→45	49	209/284/315	106	269	9	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	212/270/317	105	265	8	7	22%	7%	66	-1.1	213/262/313	100	267	8	3	23%	5%	59	-1.0
✕Matt Gedman 2014 · A	25	46	44→45	52→50	44	227/269/340	113	265	12	9	20%	5%	71	-0.8	204/243/283	79	255	6	8	22%	5%	47	-2.5	164/190/196	33	207	0	4	20%	3%	4	-1.8
✕John Mora 2017 · A	24	48→50	40	49→50	50	226/294/327	100	279	6	9	20%	8%	77	-0.3	216/272/304	88	292	5	9	26%	6%	63	-1.3	212/265/295	83	292	4	10	27%	6%	56	-1.5
✕Robert Neustrom 2021 · A	24	44→45	43→45	49→50	41	216/263/326	111	284	10	7	28%	6%	65	-1.2	218/273/349	131	270	13	12	24%	6%	75	-0.5	212/269/346	134	256	14	14	23%	6%	70	-0.7
✕Jax Biggers 2021 · A	24	47→52	38→40	49→50	49	224/286/299	76	273	5	12	19%	8%	68	-1.0	214/266/303	89	268	7	14	22%	6%	61	-1.5	219/293/313	94	285	7	13	24%	9%	72	-0.5
✕Gregory Thomson 2008 · A	24	48→50	41→45	50	42	230/275/333	103	278	7	12	20%	4%	71	-0.8	212/263/319	107	262	9	9	22%	5%	64	-1.3	194/247/298	103	239	9	7	22%	4%	50	-1.2
✕Donnie Dewees 2018 · AA	24	47→50	41→45	57→50	44	228/275/333	106	279	6	17	21%	6%	71	-0.8	216/266/333	117	259	10	12	20%	6%	68	-1.0	207/257/326	119	244	11	11	20%	5%	60	-1.3
✕Nate Sutton 2007 · A	24	48→56	42→40	55→50	46	232/287/340	108	284	9	17	22%	7%	77	-0.3	240/286/325	85	293	6	16	19%	6%	73	-0.6	246/292/320	74	297	4	17	18%	6%	72	-0.7

Austin Smith

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps