Austin Smith — OGILVIE

Austin SmithOF Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 23 L/L 5'11" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION189 act + 126 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .304 / .318

PA126

HR2

K%27

BB%10

BABIP280

ISO109

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 53 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT53

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE62

scouting grade only

SPEED59

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	99	85	17	4	0	1	8	18	6	7	3	200	313	282	595	82	242	18	8	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	99	81	21	5	0	2	12	12	6	7	3	259	394	395	789	136	284	12	12	364	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A	TOR	—	189	157	27	4	1	1	22	48	5	8	2	172	293	229	523	57	234	25	12	237	40	-13	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.8
YTD	23	A	TOR	—	189	150	29	4	1	1	29	34	5	8	2	193	342	253	596	60	237	18	15	283	75	-5	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.0
ROS	23	A	TOR	0%	126	110	23	4	1	2	12	34	3	3	1	209	304	318	622	109	272	27	10	273	67	-5	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
ROS	23	MLB	TOR	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		274	—	—	259	57	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	23	A	TOR	—	189	158	27	4	1	1	22	48	5	8	2	171	293	228	521	57	232	25	12	237	40	-13	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.8
TOT	23	A	TOR	—	315	267	50	8	2	3	34	82	8	11	3	187	298	266	564	79	253	26	11	252	51	-18	+1	+0	-2	+9	-1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	TOR	30%	277	243	50	9	2	4	27	73	5	6	1	206	298	309	607	103	274	26	10	280	72	-9	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.2
2028	25	MLB	TOR	44%	345	303	64	11	2	6	33	90	6	7	2	211	301	320	621	109	276	26	10	285	76	-9	+1	+0	-2	+10	-0.1
2027	24	MLB	TOR	30%	83	73	15	3	0	1	8	22	2	2	0	205	301	288	589	82	276	27	10	267	62	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	TOR	44%	152	133	29	5	1	3	15	40	3	3	1	218	311	338	650	120	277	26	10	272	66	-6	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	235	207	44	8	1	4	23	62	5	5	1	213	308	319	627	106	282	26	10	270	65	-9	+1	+0	-1	+7	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	122	22	3	11	64	171	14	14	3	213	309	319	628	106	282	26	10	270	65	-26	+2	+0	-4	+18	-1.0
Career	—			—	847	741	154	28	5	13	80	215	20	23	7	208	302	312	614	104	273	25	9	280	73	-26	+2	+0	-5	+24	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	569	118	21	4	10	61	165	15	18	5	207	301	311	612	104	272	25	9	280	73	-20	+2	+0	-4	+18	-0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	99	81	21	5	0	2	12	12	6	7	3	259	394	395	789	136	284	12	12	364	137	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	389	6	8	213	299	319	-2	+0	-0.2	-0.1
	/162	664	11	14	213	299	319	-4.0	+0.0	-0.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Austin Smith (OGILVIE)	23	48→53	33→38	54→59	62	187/298/266	79	253	3	11	26%	11%	51	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kameron Misner 2021 · A	23	46→43	39→50	54→55	48	217/293/303	87	305	6	13	29%	9%	68	-0.5	199/283/333	134	317	13	21	38%	10%	72	-0.2	205/283/356	150	291	16	27	33%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Michael Gigliotti 2019 · A	23	51	41→40	51→55	50	244/315/350	106	306	8	16	22%	9%	89	+1.0	225/290/313	88	304	5	21	26%	7%	69	-0.4	194/304/312	118	265	11	24	28%	11%	75	+0.0
✕Troy Montgomery 2018 · AA	23	48→55	42→40	51→50	47	230/294/339	109	298	9	13	25%	8%	77	+0.1	227/294/313	86	322	5	12	28%	8%	70	-0.3	245/317/316	71	358	2	15	29%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Darrell Ceciliani 2013 · A	23	49→56	40→45	52→55	45	234/292/328	94	306	6	14	25%	7%	73	-0.1	248/288/351	103	333	8	22	27%	4%	77	+0.1	253/291/359	107	338	9	26	27%	4%	78	+0.2
✕Hoy Park 2019 · A	23	46→49	39→45	55	50	218/298/304	86	288	6	17	25%	9%	71	-0.3	227/304/324	97	304	7	16	25%	9%	78	+0.2	217/301/336	119	289	13	18	28%	10%	77	+0.1
✕Saige Jenco 2018 · A	23	48	40	54→50	46	224/291/324	100	310	5	15	28%	8%	72	-0.2	210/280/292	82	319	5	12	32%	9%	59	-1.1	182/266/218	36	298	0	13	35%	10%	33	-1.0
✕Brad McElroy 2010 · A	24	45→55	40→45	55	50	214/299/310	96	284	7	18	25%	9%	73	-0.1	226/288/321	95	295	6	20	24%	7%	70	-0.3	227/286/316	88	295	6	23	23%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Joe McCarthy 2017 · A	23	48→49	41→50	51→50	51	227/310/330	103	289	8	14	23%	9%	82	+0.5	216/302/338	122	287	10	12	26%	10%	82	+0.5	202/285/367	165	263	19	5	30%	9%	80	+0.1
✕Shayne Fontana 2021 · A	24	48	40→45	53→55	45	226/293/330	103	297	6	13	25%	7%	75	-0.0	202/286/308	106	294	10	10	32%	9%	67	-0.5	219/304/318	98	295	10	19	27%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Tristan Peters 2023 · AA	23	45→53	44→45	53→50	48	218/288/344	126	281	9	14	25%	8%	76	+0.1	229/295/348	119	286	9	12	22%	8%	80	+0.4	238/306/369	131	290	10	10	21%	8%	87	+0.6
✕Yoel Yanqui 2018 · A	22	52→50	40	56→50	47	244/307/345	101	326	5	12	25%	8%	84	+0.6	225/280/312	87	313	6	11	28%	7%	64	-0.8	215/274/307	92	299	8	11	29%	7%	58	-0.8
✕Matt Rudick 2022 · A	24	45→44	39→45	56→50	49	215/284/308	92	270	6	11	22%	8%	66	-0.6	212/297/327	115	264	10	14	22%	9%	77	+0.1	206/302/338	132	254	15	16	24%	10%	78	+0.1
✕Tucker Bradley 2022 · A	24	47→53	41→50	54→50	47	223/295/331	108	303	8	11	27%	8%	76	+0.1	244/308/384	140	316	13	15	26%	8%	95	+1.4	252/316/405	153	320	16	17	25%	8%	100	+1.2
✕Leon Johnson 2008 · A	23	49	40	58→60	50	229/302/326	97	301	6	22	24%	9%	77	+0.1	218/282/296	78	282	5	17	23%	7%	61	-1.0	200/262/221	21	248	0	22	18%	6%	30	-0.7
✕Chris Pieters 2018 · A	23	45	41→45	51→55	44	215/279/319	105	286	7	13	26%	7%	66	-0.6	207/259/301	94	296	6	11	30%	6%	53	-1.5	165/200/219	54	252	0	15	33%	4%	4	-0.8
✕Ryan Boldt 2018 · A	23	47→48	40→50	53→55	44	226/284/323	97	296	6	16	25%	6%	69	-0.4	236/292/361	125	307	11	16	25%	6%	82	+0.5	227/279/362	135	313	14	18	31%	5%	74	-0.0
✕Tom Belza 2012 · A	23	46→56	43→45	54→45	40	225/267/343	118	304	10	8	29%	5%	66	-0.6	230/276/329	99	298	8	8	24%	6%	66	-0.6	237/285/328	91	306	7	8	24%	6%	67	-0.5
✕Kentrail Davis 2012 · A	24	49→54	41→45	57→55	44	232/298/347	116	294	6	17	22%	6%	82	+0.5	223/289/322	99	318	5	17	29%	7%	71	-0.3	221/294/314	93	303	5	18	26%	8%	68	-0.3
✕Tyler Collins 2013 · A	23	48→50	40→50	53→50	51	229/296/335	106	271	6	14	18%	8%	77	+0.1	223/278/362	139	277	16	9	25%	6%	77	+0.1	221/274/364	143	272	18	9	26%	6%	74	-0.1
✕John Mora 2016 · A	23	50	41→45	52→50	50	237/304/352	115	284	7	12	18%	8%	85	+0.7	221/281/315	94	292	6	9	24%	7%	66	-0.6	213/271/298	86	289	5	9	26%	7%	54	-1.2