Austin Smith — OGILVIE

Austin SmithOF Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 23 L/L 5'11" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION322 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP274

ISO128

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 43

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER43

scouting grade only

EYE56

scouting grade only

SPEED58

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	99	81	21	5	0	2	12	12	6	7	3	259	394	395	789	136	284	12	12	364	132	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	99	85	17	4	0	1	8	18	6	7	3	200	313	282	595	82	244	18	8	287	80	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	99	85	17	4	0	1	8	18	6	7	3	200	313	282	595	82	242	18	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	99	81	21	5	0	2	12	12	6	7	3	259	394	395	789	136	284	12	12	364	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	99	85	17	4	0	1	8	18	6	7	3	200	313	282	595	82	244	18	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	99	85	17	4	0	1	8	18	6	7	3	200	313	282	595	82	244	18	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A MLE	TOR	—	322	276	57	12	1	5	27	65	11	13	3	207	303	312	614	105	246	20	8	271	70	-12	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A RAW	TOR	—	206	164	34	5	1	1	32	37	5	9	2	207	353	268	622	61	256	18	16	294	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ RAW	TOR	—	116	102	30	9	0	5	5	9	6	4	1	294	363	529	892	235	278	8	4	382	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A MLE	TOR	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		273	22	11	296	87	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	A MLE	TOR	—	331	284	58	12	1	5	28	67	11	13	3	204	300	306	607	102	244	20	8	272	70	-12	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	30%	292	258	59	12	1	6	25	63	7	6	2	229	314	353	667	124	275	22	9	300	89	-4	+0	+0	-2	+6	0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	44%	356	314	72	14	2	8	31	77	8	8	2	229	314	363	678	134	276	22	9	303	91	-4	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	51%	397	351	81	16	2	9	34	85	9	9	2	231	315	365	679	134	277	21	9	305	92	-4	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	413	365	84	17	2	9	36	89	9	9	2	230	315	362	676	132	277	22	9	305	93	-4	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	421	372	85	17	2	9	37	92	9	9	2	228	313	358	671	129	277	22	9	304	92	-4	+1	-1	-3	+9	0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	418	369	84	17	2	9	37	92	9	8	2	228	313	358	671	130	276	22	9	303	91	-4	+1	-1	-3	+9	0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	413	364	83	16	2	9	37	92	9	7	2	228	315	357	672	129	275	22	9	300	89	-5	+1	-2	-2	+9	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	30%	88	78	18	4	0	2	8	19	2	2	0	231	318	359	677	128	276	22	9	284	89	-1	+0	+0	-1	+2	0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	44%	157	140	31	6	1	3	13	34	3	3	1	221	301	343	644	121	277	22	8	288	91	-2	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	51%	201	178	40	8	1	4	17	43	4	4	1	225	307	348	655	124	278	21	8	290	92	-2	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	216	190	45	9	1	5	19	47	5	5	1	237	322	374	696	137	278	22	9	291	93	-2	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	224	197	46	9	1	5	20	49	5	5	1	234	320	365	685	132	278	22	9	290	92	-2	+1	-0	-1	+5	0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	220	193	45	9	1	5	20	48	5	4	1	233	321	368	689	135	277	22	9	288	91	-2	+0	-1	-1	+5	0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	215	189	43	8	1	5	19	48	5	4	1	228	315	360	674	132	276	22	9	285	89	-3	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1321	1165	268	53	6	29	116	288	29	27	6	230	315	361	676	130	280	22	9	288	91	-14	+3	-2	-8	+29	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	132	26	3	14	57	142	14	13	3	230	315	360	674	129	281	22	9	288	91	-7	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2818	2486	566	113	13	60	246	610	66	63	17	228	314	356	670	128	277	22	9	303	91	-28	+6	-4	-16	+59	1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	131	26	3	14	57	141	15	15	4	229	315	358	672	129	278	22	9	303	91	-7	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gabe Grosslast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,682 PA	2.5	1,682	40	22	239	330	385	-14	+11	5.1	5.1
/162	664	16	9	-5.7	+4.4	2.0	pk7: 5
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.2	1,483	32	30	231	311	360	-9	+0	2.0	2.0
/162	664	14	14	-4.0	+0.0	0.9	pk7: 2
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Austin Smith (OGILVIE)	23	55→60	38→43	53→58	56	221/308/338	117	273	3	5	22%	8%	87	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Erik Komatsu 2011 · A	23	54→60	41→45	51→50	51	258/323/367	109	303	7	15	17%	8%	97	+1.1	243/307/332	89	284	7	14	16%	8%	83	+0.1	220/287/302	83	261	8	14	18%	8%	68	-0.6
●Wade Meckler 2023 · A	23	53→63	41→40	50	52	246/327/358	112	327	7	8	25%	10%	97	+1.1	264/332/364	100	341	7	11	23%	9%	99	+1.3	265/335/357	92	340	6	12	22%	9%	95	+0.7
✕Anthony Webster 2006 · A	23	52→55	45	57→55	45	255/291/396	141	284	11	16	15%	4%	92	+0.7	249/284/364	115	282	9	20	15%	4%	81	-0.1	247/282/356	109	275	8	22	13%	4%	75	-0.3
✕Nicky Lopez 2017 · A	22	47→57	42→40	57→55	51	229/304/337	108	264	10	17	17%	8%	84	+0.1	252/304/335	83	284	5	13	13%	6%	82	-0.0	264/325/345	82	303	4	14	13%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Drew Avans 2019 · A	23	45→53	48→45	56→60	49	229/300/373	144	280	16	18	24%	8%	91	+0.6	227/285/347	120	317	11	22	30%	7%	78	-0.3	228/294/342	115	331	8	33	31%	8%	77	-0.2
●Sal Frelick 2022 · A	22	52→60	40	56→55	48	248/308/348	100	311	7	17	22%	8%	87	+0.4	262/323/367	105	305	7	19	16%	7%	97	+1.1	262/330/356	94	300	7	20	14%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Nick Loftin 2022 · A	23	47→52	45	53→50	48	229/294/357	128	272	11	11	20%	7%	84	+0.2	233/296/353	120	273	13	14	19%	7%	84	+0.2	228/318/350	122	261	10	9	16%	10%	91	+0.5
✕Matt Cogen 2019 · A	23	47	47→55	54→40	46	234/295/376	142	288	14	5	24%	7%	89	+0.5	206/266/291	85	289	6	5	29%	7%	59	-1.7	164/227/201	37	243	0	2	30%	7%	22	-1.4
✕LeVon Washington 2014 · A	23	53	42→45	53→50	47	245/318/364	119	351	7	14	30%	9%	95	+0.9	234/297/341	107	329	8	10	29%	8%	82	-0.0	225/288/321	96	315	7	8	29%	7%	71	-0.3
✕Dustin Harris 2022 · A	23	51→54	51→50	55→60	46	257/314/415	157	302	19	16	22%	7%	105	+1.7	227/296/370	143	286	16	24	25%	8%	88	+0.5	236/302/353	118	292	12	34	22%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Tucker Bradley 2022 · A	24	48→53	41→45	54→50	46	227/299/335	107	310	8	11	28%	8%	81	-0.1	243/306/369	126	316	11	15	25%	8%	91	+0.7	250/313/384	134	318	12	17	24%	8%	95	+0.6
✕Ezequiel Pagan 2023 · A	23	48→53	46→45	52→50	43	241/289/368	128	286	13	9	21%	5%	85	+0.2	224/274/326	102	276	10	11	22%	5%	70	-0.9	214/262/306	93	264	9	11	22%	4%	58	-1.0
✕Cole Gillespie 2007 · A	23	49→58	46→50	52→50	52	239/317/369	129	293	13	15	22%	9%	96	+1.0	230/310/363	133	297	12	13	25%	10%	92	+0.7	230/306/374	144	291	12	14	24%	9%	90	+0.5
✕Nate Tenbrink 2011 · AA	24	50→53	46→50	57→50	46	245/307/380	135	312	12	16	25%	7%	94	+0.9	226/297/369	143	311	14	15	30%	8%	88	+0.5	219/293/364	145	332	15	11	36%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2015 · A	22	50→53	42→45	53→50	49	241/300/351	109	293	8	12	20%	8%	84	+0.2	239/290/342	103	290	8	9	19%	6%	78	-0.3	243/304/370	127	291	12	9	20%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Jeff Corsaletti 2006 · A	23	57→52	41→45	49→50	49	271/323/377	106	328	8	10	20%	7%	99	+1.2	242/320/355	113	300	9	10	21%	10%	93	+0.8	237/321/354	117	293	10	10	21%	10%	92	+0.7
✕Joe McCarthy 2017 · A	23	48→50	42→45	51→50	51	231/315/339	108	292	9	14	23%	9%	88	+0.5	219/305/338	119	289	9	12	25%	10%	84	+0.2	199/280/346	148	264	17	5	30%	9%	76	-0.2
✕Alan Roden 2023 · A	23	47→56	41→45	51→50	51	223/310/319	97	268	8	12	19%	9%	82	+0.0	253/329/370	117	296	10	14	17%	8%	101	+1.4	256/333/376	120	298	10	14	17%	8%	100	+1.0
✕Tyson Gillies 2012 · AA	23	54→64	41→45	53→55	45	257/314/361	104	319	8	19	22%	6%	92	+0.7	234/282/338	104	310	7	14	26%	4%	75	-0.5	230/276/332	102	306	7	15	26%	4%	68	-0.5
✕Michael Gigliotti 2019 · A	23	51	42→40	51→55	51	242/314/349	107	303	8	16	22%	9%	90	+0.6	224/290/312	88	307	5	21	27%	7%	73	-0.6	191/301/300	110	261	10	24	28%	11%	74	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps