Jairo Diaz
C Myrtle Beach Pelicans| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | ROKCHC | 72 | .355/.429/.435 | 0 | 1 | 75 | — | .266/.329/.328 |
| 2025 | 21 | A/ROKCHC | 160 | .278/.389/.331 | 0 | 12 | 50 | — | .215/.293/.259 |
| 2026 | 22 | ACHC | 131 | .192/.349/.288 | 2 | 0 | 35 | — | .135/.256/.189 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBCHC | 241 | .181/.264/.262 | 3 | 4 | 51 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBCHC | 38 | .188/.270/.278 | 0 | 1 | 56 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBCHC | 82 | .191/.274/.288 | 1 | 2 | 60 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 37
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 110 | 97 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 196 | 278 | 237 | 515 | 41 | 247 | 20 | 10 | 239 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 70 | 57 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 263 | 382 | 386 | 768 | 123 | 318 | 20 | 14 | 342 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 72 | 62 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 355 | 429 | 435 | 864 | 81 | 449 | 21 | 10 | 381 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 48 | 35 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 314 | 489 | 400 | 889 | 86 | 440 | 23 | 25 | 406 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 112 | 98 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 24 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 265 | 345 | 306 | 652 | 41 | 342 | 21 | 9 | 299 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 131 | 104 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 43 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 349 | 288 | 637 | 96 | 295 | 33 | 18 | 301 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 110 | 101 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 129 | 185 | 158 | 344 | 30 | 167 | 25 | 6 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 70 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 279 | 295 | 574 | 98 | 256 | 29 | 9 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 72 | 64 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 266 | 329 | 328 | 657 | 62 | 351 | 31 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 48 | 39 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 282 | 404 | 359 | 763 | 77 | 407 | 33 | 17 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 112 | 102 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 186 | 245 | 216 | 461 | 29 | 261 | 32 | 5 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 131 | 111 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 58 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 135 | 256 | 189 | 445 | 54 | 252 | 44 | 12 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 110 | 101 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 129 | 185 | 158 | 344 | 30 | 171 | 25 | 6 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 110 | 97 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 196 | 278 | 237 | 515 | 41 | 247 | 20 | 10 | 239 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 70 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 279 | 295 | 574 | 98 | 262 | 29 | 9 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 70 | 57 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 263 | 382 | 386 | 768 | 123 | 318 | 20 | 14 | 342 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 72 | 64 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 266 | 329 | 328 | 657 | 62 | 386 | 31 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 72 | 62 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 355 | 429 | 435 | 864 | 81 | 449 | 21 | 10 | 381 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 160 | 142 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 51 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 204 | 280 | 239 | 520 | 35 | 309 | 32 | 8 | 241 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 160 | 133 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 35 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 278 | 389 | 331 | 719 | 53 | 366 | 22 | 14 | 331 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 131 | 111 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 58 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 135 | 256 | 189 | 445 | 54 | 259 | 44 | 12 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A RAW | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 131 | 104 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 43 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 349 | 288 | 637 | 96 | 295 | 33 | 18 | 301 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 110 | 102 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 127 | 185 | 157 | 342 | 29 | 167 | 25 | 6 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 70 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 279 | 286 | 565 | 95 | 256 | 29 | 9 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 72 | 66 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 258 | 329 | 318 | 647 | 61 | 351 | 31 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 160 | 144 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 51 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 201 | 280 | 236 | 516 | 35 | 305 | 32 | 8 | 241 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 131 | 112 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 58 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 134 | 256 | 188 | 443 | 54 | 252 | 44 | 12 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 72 | 66 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 258 | 329 | 318 | 647 | 61 | 351 | 31 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 160 | 144 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 51 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 201 | 280 | 236 | 516 | 35 | 305 | 32 | 8 | 241 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 131 | 112 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 58 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 134 | 256 | 188 | 443 | 54 | 252 | 44 | 12 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | CHC | 0% | 241 | 215 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 78 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 181 | 264 | 262 | 526 | 81 | 266 | 32 | 9 | 244 | 51 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | CHC | 30% | 126 | 113 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 186 | 269 | 275 | 544 | 89 | 269 | 32 | 9 | 251 | 56 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | CHC | 44% | 185 | 164 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 58 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 190 | 272 | 286 | 558 | 96 | 270 | 31 | 9 | 257 | 60 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | CHC | 51% | 243 | 217 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 75 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 193 | 275 | 293 | 569 | 101 | 271 | 31 | 9 | 261 | 63 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | CHC | 52% | 279 | 249 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 85 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 195 | 276 | 297 | 573 | 102 | 272 | 30 | 9 | 262 | 64 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | CHC | 53% | 301 | 268 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 91 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 195 | 277 | 298 | 574 | 102 | 272 | 30 | 9 | 263 | 64 | -13 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | CHC | 53% | 305 | 271 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 93 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 193 | 274 | 291 | 565 | 98 | 270 | 30 | 9 | 259 | 62 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | CHC | 30% | 38 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 270 | 278 | 548 | 90 | 272 | 32 | 8 | 253 | 56 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | CHC | 44% | 82 | 74 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 191 | 274 | 288 | 562 | 97 | 273 | 32 | 9 | 258 | 60 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | CHC | 51% | 123 | 110 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 38 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 194 | 276 | 296 | 572 | 101 | 274 | 31 | 9 | 262 | 63 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | CHC | 52% | 146 | 131 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 45 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 196 | 278 | 299 | 576 | 103 | 275 | 31 | 9 | 264 | 64 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | CHC | 53% | 160 | 142 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 197 | 278 | 299 | 577 | 103 | 275 | 31 | 9 | 264 | 64 | -7 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | CHC | 53% | 160 | 144 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 49 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 194 | 275 | 293 | 568 | 99 | 273 | 31 | 9 | 260 | 62 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 709 | 636 | 122 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 63 | 219 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 192 | 271 | 288 | 559 | 96 | 273 | 31 | 9 | 262 | 56 | -32 | +1 | -1 | +13 | +15 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 583 | 112 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 58 | 201 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 192 | 272 | 288 | 561 | 96 | 273 | 31 | 9 | 262 | 56 | -29 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2061 | 1832 | 347 | 63 | 8 | 27 | 184 | 646 | 21 | 45 | 10 | 189 | 271 | 277 | 548 | 87 | 272 | 31 | 9 | 250 | 56 | -70 | +3 | -2 | +27 | +33 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 111 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 58 | 204 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 192 | 274 | 284 | 558 | 92 | 275 | 31 | 9 | 250 | 56 | -30 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 131 PAwOBA .299 → .220 (−80)K% 32.8% → 44.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.82% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 44.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 12.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.957 | — | 20.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.957 | — | 5.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.957 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.62% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .299 → .220; ISO .096 → .069; BABIP .295 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Cubs · 112 PAwOBA .294 → .204 (−90)K% 21.4% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.43% | ÷0.969 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.04% | ÷0.983 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 4.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.73% | ÷1.004 | ×0.820 | ×0.964 | ×0.985 | 23.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷0.973 | ×0.720 | ×0.964 | ×0.985 | 3.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.089 | ×0.720 | ×0.964 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.868 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 118, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .294 → .204; ISO .041 → .027; BABIP .342 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 48 PAwOBA .405 → .329 (−77)K% 22.9% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.92% | ÷0.956 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 15.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 31.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.968 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 10.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 91, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .405 → .329; ISO .086 → .077; BABIP .440 → .407. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Cubs · 72 PAwOBA .382 → .279 (−103)K% 20.8% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.83% | ÷0.989 | ×1.440 | — | — | 30.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.72% | ÷0.947 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.17% | ÷1.047 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 28.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.64% | ÷0.903 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 8.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 109, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 98, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .382 → .279; ISO .081 → .061; BABIP .449 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Cubs · 70 PAwOBA .344 → .255 (−88)K% 20.0% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.43% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.005 | ×1.008 | 21.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.005 | ×1.008 | 3.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.005 | ×1.008 | 1.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.83% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .344 → .255; ISO .123 → .092; BABIP .318 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Cubs Blue · 110 PAwOBA .238 → .160 (−78)K% 20.0% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.001 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.096 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.33% | ÷1.001 | ×0.680 | ×0.998 | ×1.008 | 14.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.67% | ÷0.932 | ×0.600 | ×0.998 | ×1.008 | 1.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.33% | ÷0.983 | ×0.600 | ×0.998 | ×1.008 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 100, 2B 86, 3B 97, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .238 → .160; ISO .041 → .026; BABIP .247 → .167. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).