Jairo Diaz — OGILVIE

Jairo DiazC Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 22 L/R 5'9" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION121 act + 80 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†41

AVG/OBP/SLG.165 / .248 / .234

PA80

HR1

K%35

BB%9

BABIP252

ISO69

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	110	102	16	2	1	0	6	32	0	2	0	157	204	196	400	39	222	29	5	169	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	110	97	19	2	1	0	11	22	0	2	0	196	278	237	515	41	247	20	10	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	70	61	12	1	1	1	6	20	1	1	0	197	279	295	574	98	262	29	9	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	70	57	15	2	1	1	10	14	1	1	0	263	382	386	768	123	318	20	14	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	72	64	16	4	0	0	5	22	1	1	1	250	314	312	627	62	364	31	7	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	72	62	22	5	0	0	7	15	1	1	1	355	429	435	864	81	449	21	10	381	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	2 teams	—	160	143	29	5	0	0	12	54	2	12	1	203	274	238	512	35	315	34	8	237	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	2 teams	—	160	133	37	7	0	0	22	35	2	12	1	278	389	331	719	53	366	22	14	331	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A	CHC	—	121	104	16	3	0	2	14	55	1	0	0	154	261	240	501	87	286	45	12	226	31	-9	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.4
YTD	22	A	CHC	—	121	96	20	4	0	2	22	39	1	0	0	208	361	312	674	104	316	32	18	314	99	-0	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.6
ROS	22	A	CHC	0%	80	72	12	2	0	1	7	28	1	1	0	165	248	234	482	69	270	35	9	239	41	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	CHC	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		271	—	—	233	37	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	22	A	CHC	—	121	105	16	3	0	2	14	55	1	0	0	152	261	238	499	86	280	45	12	226	31	-9	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.4
TOT	22	A	CHC	—	201	176	28	5	0	3	21	83	2	1	0	158	255	238	493	79	270	41	10	231	35	-15	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CHC	34%	244	218	40	8	1	3	22	82	2	4	1	183	264	271	535	87	275	34	9	251	50	-14	+0	+0	+4	+7	-0.2
2028	24	MLB	CHC	46%	340	303	58	11	1	6	31	110	3	6	2	191	273	294	567	102	278	32	9	260	57	-17	+0	+0	+6	+10	-0.0
2029	25	MLB	CHC	52%	395	352	69	13	2	7	36	126	4	8	2	196	278	304	582	108	279	32	9	265	61	-17	+1	+0	+7	+11	0.2
2030	26	MLB	CHC	54%	430	384	76	14	2	8	39	136	4	9	2	198	279	307	586	109	279	32	9	267	63	-18	+1	+0	+8	+12	0.3
2031	27	MLB	CHC	58%	444	396	78	15	2	8	41	141	4	9	2	197	279	306	584	109	279	32	9	267	63	-19	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.3
2032	28	MLB	CHC	61%	449	400	79	15	2	8	42	143	4	9	2	198	280	305	585	107	278	32	9	266	62	-19	+1	-1	+8	+13	0.2
2027	23	MLB	CHC	34%	84	75	14	3	0	1	8	28	1	1	0	187	274	267	540	80	276	33	10	246	46	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	CHC	46%	157	141	28	5	1	3	14	51	1	3	1	199	276	312	588	113	279	32	9	254	53	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2029	25	MLB	CHC	52%	204	181	36	7	1	4	19	65	2	4	1	199	282	315	597	116	280	32	9	259	56	-10	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.0
2030	26	MLB	CHC	54%	233	208	41	8	1	4	21	74	2	5	1	197	277	303	580	106	280	32	9	261	58	-11	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.0
2031	27	MLB	CHC	58%	259	231	46	9	1	5	24	82	2	5	1	199	280	312	592	113	280	32	9	261	58	-12	+1	+0	+5	+7	0.0
2032	28	MLB	CHC	61%	273	242	48	9	1	5	26	87	3	6	1	198	284	306	590	107	279	32	10	260	57	-13	+1	-0	+5	+8	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1210	1079	213	41	5	22	112	387	11	24	5	197	280	306	586	108	283	32	9	259	56	-60	+3	-0	+22	+34	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	115	22	3	12	60	208	6	13	3	198	281	309	589	110	284	32	9	259	56	-32	+1	-0	+12	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	2794	2495	485	90	12	42	247	894	26	62	13	194	274	291	564	96	280	32	9	258	56	-140	+7	-1	+50	+79	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	113	21	3	10	57	208	6	14	3	195	273	293	566	98	281	32	9	258	56	-33	+2	-0	+12	+18	-0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	110	97	19	2	1	0	11	22	0	2	0	196	278	237	515	41	247	20	10	239	41	-7	+0	—	—	+3	-0.4
2023	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	70	57	15	2	1	1	10	14	1	1	0	263	382	386	768	123	318	20	14	342	120	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2024	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	72	62	22	5	0	0	7	15	1	1	1	355	429	435	864	81	449	21	10	381	150	+4	-0	—	—	+2	0.6
2025	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	48	35	11	3	0	0	12	11	0	2	0	314	489	400	889	86	440	23	25	406	168	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2025	21	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	112	98	26	4	0	0	10	24	2	10	1	265	345	306	652	41	342	21	9	299	87	-2	+2	—	—	+3	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,373	23	27	195	273	297	+25	+16	0.2	0.4
	/162	664	11	13	195	273	297	+11.9	+7.7	0.1	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jairo Diaz (OGILVIE)	22	20→25	32→37	49→54	55	158/255/238	79	270	3	1	41%	10%	35	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Proctor 2019 · A	22	35	37→30	53→45	40	174/226/247	72	249	5	10	31%	6%	24	-3.5	193/238/263	70	268	5	8	28%	6%	33	-2.9	173/221/224	51	251	4	6	31%	6%	14	-1.5
✕Jose Dilone 2023 · A	22	37	37→30	51→55	41	175/254/241	66	286	5	13	37%	8%	37	-2.7	209/287/298	89	367	7	11	41%	9%	64	-0.8	218/310/312	94	434	9	12	46%	11%	73	-0.0
✕Cole Roederer 2022 · A	22	41→31	40→45	50	44	197/272/291	94	298	8	13	34%	8%	56	-1.3	201/266/318	117	303	13	11	35%	7%	61	-1.0	180/254/293	113	270	13	11	36%	8%	49	-1.0
✕Kier Meredith 2022 · A	22	42	36→30	51→60	45	198/268/265	67	279	4	12	29%	8%	47	-1.9	206/304/278	72	297	4	26	29%	9%	68	-0.5	217/333/268	51	299	3	35	25%	10%	75	-0.0
✕River Town 2022 · A	23	44→36	37→40	54→50	43	203/281/277	74	287	3	12	28%	7%	57	-1.2	205/290/306	101	264	9	15	24%	8%	69	-0.4	199/291/294	95	251	9	15	23%	9%	64	-0.4
✕Leandro Pineda 2023 · A	21	36→39	39→45	47→45	42	172/250/266	95	272	5	6	36%	8%	41	-2.3	201/268/322	121	279	12	6	31%	7%	63	-0.9	202/271/322	120	261	12	6	26%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Alvaro Sosa 2007 · A	21	37	37→40	50→45	38	181/228/255	74	270	4	8	34%	6%	27	-3.3	196/241/269	73	261	3	8	25%	5%	37	-2.7	196/241/266	70	251	1	7	21%	5%	32	-0.9
✕Aaron Shipman 2014 · A	22	45→35	34→30	48→50	51	204/288/257	54	289	1	13	27%	10%	54	-1.4	228/307/309	81	314	4	16	26%	10%	75	-0.0	248/337/332	84	340	2	24	24%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Jamodrick McGruder 2014 · A	22	40→46	37→45	52→50	46	194/262/260	66	258	5	10	26%	8%	43	-2.2	216/290/317	101	275	7	10	22%	9%	70	-0.3	216/298/324	108	271	6	10	21%	10%	71	-0.2
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	39→40	46→45	40	193/251/277	85	270	5	6	30%	6%	43	-2.2	194/250/277	83	275	7	9	30%	6%	43	-2.2	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Andy Yerzy 2021 · A	23	35	38→50	49→40	35	174/224/252	77	276	5	7	37%	5%	25	-3.5	182/265/327	145	260	18	6	36%	8%	64	-0.8	160/246/298	138	227	19	4	38%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Dallas Poulk 2011 · A	23	42	40→30	50	44	204/263/298	94	276	7	8	28%	7%	53	-1.5	210/276/281	71	300	3	9	28%	8%	54	-1.4	203/274/265	61	294	1	8	29%	8%	47	-1.3
✕Kai Murphy 2023 · A	22	45→40	39→40	53→50	44	213/272/299	86	295	6	12	28%	7%	58	-1.2	210/271/296	86	310	7	10	32%	7%	56	-1.3	202/271/271	69	274	5	11	26%	7%	48	-1.0
✕Deivis Nadal 2023 · A	21	37	36→40	48→55	37	175/244/240	65	289	3	14	38%	6%	31	-3.0	173/255/277	104	332	9	19	46%	9%	46	-2.0	140/234/249	109	282	11	25	49%	10%	28	-1.4
✕Cam Coursey 2022 · A	23	42	38→40	52→55	48	201/266/278	77	257	5	16	23%	8%	50	-1.8	211/289/288	77	274	5	10	23%	9%	63	-0.9	204/298/261	57	263	3	4	21%	11%	58	-0.5
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	35	-2.8	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Rolando Gomez 2011 · A	22	41	40→45	51→50	38	199/247/296	97	297	6	10	34%	6%	45	-2.1	211/252/302	91	314	5	14	33%	5%	49	-1.8	218/256/307	90	317	5	16	32%	5%	49	-1.1
✕Ashton McGee 2021 · A	22	41	39→45	50→40	41	194/258/283	89	288	5	5	33%	7%	48	-1.9	196/284/305	109	362	11	4	44%	10%	66	-0.6	177/274/284	107	334	12	2	45%	11%	53	-0.8
✕Terry Serrano 2009 · A	22	41	36→30	51→55	45	194/254/257	63	262	3	15	26%	7%	39	-2.5	209/290/282	73	320	3	15	32%	10%	61	-1.0	204/311/268	64	327	2	21	33%	13%	64	-0.4