Maikel Hernandez

Maikel Hernandez P FCL Rays

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 184 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 18 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%22.4%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	11	7	33	135	28	10	1	64%	3.0	14.1%	9.3%	4.8%	0.8%	2.70	3.53	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	11	7	33	135	28	10	1	64%	3.0	20.7%	7.4%	13.3%	0.7%	2.70	2.71	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	11	9	38	174	31	13	2	82%	3.5	12.1%	9.3%	2.8%	1.8%	5.17	4.23	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	11	9	38	174	31	13	2	82%	3.5	17.8%	7.5%	10.3%	1.1%	5.17	3.18	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	17	0	30	119	17	8	1	0%	1.8	9.7%	8.4%	1.3%	1.2%	1.48	3.99	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	17	0	30	119	17	8	1	0%	1.8	9.7%	8.4%	1.3%	1.2%	1.48	3.99	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	17	0	30	119	17	8	1	0%	1.8	14.3%	6.7%	7.6%	0.8%	1.48	3.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	TB	17	0	18	76	17	7	2	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	3.0%	4.37	4.37	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TB	19	0	20	84	20	7	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	8.6%	14.6%	2.9%	4.28	4.23	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	TB	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	8.6%	14.6%	2.9%	4.28	4.23	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.1	23.2%	8.6%	14.6%	2.9%	4.28	3.84	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	81	20	0%	1.1	23.2%	8.6%	14.6%	2.9%	4.28	3.84	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		39	16	102	428	52	39	6	41%	2.6	12.1%	9.1%	3.0%	1.3%	3.26	3.94	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	31	200	839	101	76	11	41%	2.6	12.1%	9.1%	3.0%	1.3%	3.26	3.94	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Maikel Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	22.4%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.23	23.2%	14.6%	20	-0.14	—	—	—
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	85
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	85
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	82
Daniel Bies R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	22	SW	3.96	24.5%	6.8%	3.8%	.339	3.17	20.3%	11.0%	89	-0.79	3.17	115	81
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	81
Yon Castro R 2021 · 3.20 FIP	22	SW	3.20	20.5%	8.5%	1.4%	.297	4.52	19.5%	8.8%	167	+1.32	3.20	274	81
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	80
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	80
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.10	24.4%	11.8%	56	+0.75	2.93	103	80
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	79
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	79
Franco Aleman R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SW	3.95	21.3%	8.2%	2.9%	.391	2.98	28.9%	18.9%	114	-0.97	2.28	226	79
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	79
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	78
Rico Garcia R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	18.8%	7.0%	1.8%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.70	3.37	592	78
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	78
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	77
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	77
Marc Brakeman R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.92	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.07	3.85	156	76
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	76