Jholbran Herder

P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ALAA	24	4	63	8.14	4.21	13.7%	8.3%	—	K 10.1% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.77
2026	21	ALAD	50	2	64	5.77	4.46	24.8%	17.5%	—	K 18.4% · BB 20.7% · FIP 5.59
2027PROJ	22	MLBLAD	50	0	52	6.38	6.38	12.3%	18.6%	-1.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBLAD	28	0	29	5.98	5.86	15.0%	16.4%	-0.4
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBLAD	41	0	43	5.66	5.53	16.6%	15.0%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff20Control45Command25

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsGarrett Apker (age 23) · Derrick Turnbow (age 22) · Noah Takacs (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 154146vR 138

ERA6.38

FIP6.38

K%12.3%

BB%18.6%

K-BB%-6.3%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2020

CTRL4545

CMD2525

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	12	12	39	160	33	11	1	100%	3.2	14.0%	8.6%	5.4%	0.9%	2.56	3.50	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	12	12	39	160	33	11	1	100%	3.2	20.6%	6.9%	13.7%	0.6%	2.56	2.58	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	4	3	8	34	4	3	1	75%	2.1	11.8%	8.8%	2.9%	2.9%	3.24	4.84	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	4	3	8	34	4	3	1	75%	2.1	11.8%	8.8%	2.9%	2.9%	3.24	4.78	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	12	3	35	141	24	16	0	25%	2.9	11.6%	14.2%	-2.6%	0.0%	2.57	3.92	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	12	3	35	141	24	16	0	25%	2.9	11.6%	14.2%	-2.6%	0.0%	2.57	3.92	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	12	3	35	141	24	16	0	25%	2.9	17.0%	11.3%	5.7%	0.0%	2.57	3.10	—
2025	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	24	4	63	314	43	26	6	17%	2.6	10.1%	9.8%	0.4%	2.4%	8.14	4.77	—
2025	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	24	4	63	314	43	26	6	17%	2.6	10.1%	9.8%	0.4%	2.4%	8.14	4.77	—
2025	20	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	24	4	63	314	43	26	6	17%	2.6	13.7%	8.3%	5.4%	1.9%	8.14	4.21	—
2026	21	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	50	2	64	302	75	53	6	4%	1.3	18.4%	20.7%	-2.3%	2.6%	5.77	5.59	—
2026	21	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	50	2	64	302	75	53	6	4%	1.3	18.4%	20.7%	-2.3%	2.6%	5.77	5.59	—
2026	21	A RAW	Ontario Tower Buzzers	50	2	64	302	75	53	6	4%	1.3	24.8%	17.5%	7.3%	2.0%	5.77	4.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	LAD	50	0	52	220	27	41	6	0%	1.0	12.3%	18.6%	-6.3%	2.9%	6.38	6.38	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAD	57	0	60	252	38	41	7	0%	1.0	15.0%	16.4%	-1.4%	2.8%	5.98	5.86	-0.9
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAD	58	0	61	259	43	39	7	0%	1.1	16.6%	15.0%	1.6%	2.8%	5.66	5.53	-0.7
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAD	28	0	29	122	18	20	3	0%	1.0	15.0%	16.4%	-1.4%	2.8%	5.98	5.86	-0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAD	41	0	43	182	30	27	5	0%	1.0	16.6%	15.0%	1.6%	2.8%	5.66	5.53	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	0	72	305	49	47	9	0%	1.0	15.9%	15.6%	0.4%	2.8%	5.79	5.28	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	136	130	25	0%	1.1	15.9%	15.6%	0.4%	2.8%	5.79	5.28	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		102	24	209	951	130	130	18	24%	2.0	13.7%	13.7%	0.0%	1.9%	5.25	4.69	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	23	200	910	124	124	17	24%	2.0	13.7%	13.7%	0.0%	1.9%	5.25	4.69	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jholbran Herder (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.38	12.3%	18.6%	2.9%	—	5.69	15.8%	0.1%	121	-0.69	—	—	—
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	86
Derrick Turnbow R 2000 · 6.58 FIP	22	SU	6.58	13.8%	19.9%	3.9%	.257	1.43	28.3%	22.6%	15	-5.15	1.43	245	86
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	85
Bernard Jose R 2024 · 6.14 FIP	21	SU	6.14	14.4%	19.0%	3.4%	.309	4.95	18.5%	6.4%	134	-1.19	4.44	222	83
Johan Moreno R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	21	SW	6.25	13.2%	16.7%	3.9%	.325	4.36	20.7%	8.0%	115	-1.89	3.09	216	83
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	83
Johsson Arias R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	22	SW	5.43	8.5%	17.1%	1.6%	.244	3.64	15.9%	4.4%	77	-1.79	3.46	117	82
Chay Yeager R 2024 · 5.60 FIP	21	SU	5.60	13.1%	15.7%	2.9%	.261	4.20	22.8%	12.5%	56	-1.40	4.20	110	82
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	81
Fraimin Marte R 2023 · 5.22 FIP	22	SW	5.22	12.2%	16.2%	2.0%	.202	5.46	18.7%	0.3%	23	+0.24	4.56	111	81
Cole Ayers R 2022 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	13.0%	15.4%	2.9%	.305	4.01	21.2%	10.1%	152	-1.57	3.58	171	81
Miguel Mora R 2023 · 6.90 FIP	21	SU	6.90	10.5%	26.8%	2.4%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	151	80
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	80
Salvador Justo R 2017 · 5.57 FIP	22	SU	5.57	12.8%	17.3%	2.5%	.328	5.22	15.7%	4.6%	107	-0.35	4.32	218	80
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	80
Frankie De La Cruz R 2008 · 7.16 FIP	24	SW	7.16	7.5%	20.8%	3.8%	.361	2.87	16.4%	7.3%	13	-4.29	2.87	262	79
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	78
Leonardo Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	12.6%	16.3%	2.8%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	142	78
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	78
Roman Phansalkar R 2022 · 6.38 FIP	24	SU	6.38	13.5%	18.4%	3.8%	.245	4.77	17.4%	4.0%	147	-1.61	4.33	164	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	14.8%	16.6%	1.10	5.99
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*