Nicandro Aybar
3B Charleston RiverDogs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKTB | 205 | .271/.361/.350 | 0 | 13 | 44 | — | .203/.262/.257 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 263 | .277/.341/.366 | 4 | 8 | 71 | — | .220/.278/.253 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/ATB | 413 | .257/.335/.304 | 0 | 11 | 51 | — | .221/.276/.260 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBTB | 519 | .221/.277/.269 | 1 | 9 | 56 | -0.4 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBTB | 125 | .230/.287/.295 | 1 | 2 | 64 | -0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBTB | 188 | .234/.292/.314 | 2 | 3 | 71 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 61 / POW 33
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 192 | 157 | 41 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 33 | 30 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 261 | 393 | 357 | 749 | 96 | 315 | 16 | 17 | 346 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rays | — | 222 | 188 | 52 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 33 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 277 | 374 | 404 | 779 | 128 | 316 | 15 | 13 | 347 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 205 | 177 | 48 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 28 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 271 | 361 | 350 | 712 | 79 | 322 | 14 | 12 | 322 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 20 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 150 | 158 | 308 | 53 | 133 | 20 | 5 | 144 | -33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 114 | 99 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 323 | 407 | 364 | 771 | 40 | 360 | 10 | 11 | 353 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 129 | 120 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 267 | 312 | 400 | 713 | 133 | 277 | 12 | 6 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 126 | 111 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 315 | 389 | 360 | 749 | 45 | 407 | 20 | 11 | 344 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 287 | 251 | 58 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 38 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 231 | 311 | 279 | 590 | 48 | 267 | 13 | 10 | 272 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 192 | 166 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 37 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 175 | 283 | 223 | 506 | 48 | 222 | 19 | 12 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays | — | 222 | 198 | 35 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 41 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 177 | 256 | 253 | 508 | 76 | 207 | 18 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 205 | 187 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 203 | 262 | 257 | 519 | 53 | 258 | 20 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 20 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 150 | 158 | 308 | 53 | 128 | 25 | 5 | 119 | -33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 114 | 104 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 240 | 301 | 269 | 570 | 29 | 273 | 14 | 7 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 126 | 118 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 263 | 310 | 297 | 606 | 34 | 373 | 26 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 287 | 262 | 53 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 52 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 202 | 261 | 244 | 506 | 42 | 241 | 18 | 7 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 192 | 166 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 37 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 175 | 283 | 223 | 506 | 48 | 223 | 19 | 12 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 192 | 157 | 41 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 33 | 30 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 261 | 393 | 357 | 749 | 96 | 315 | 16 | 17 | 346 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays | — | 222 | 198 | 35 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 41 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 177 | 256 | 253 | 508 | 76 | 209 | 18 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Rays | — | 222 | 188 | 52 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 33 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 277 | 374 | 404 | 779 | 128 | 316 | 15 | 13 | 347 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 205 | 187 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 203 | 262 | 257 | 519 | 53 | 260 | 20 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Rays | — | 205 | 177 | 48 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 28 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 271 | 361 | 350 | 712 | 79 | 322 | 14 | 12 | 322 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 263 | 243 | 51 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 42 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 210 | 264 | 235 | 499 | 25 | 251 | 16 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | INTL RAW | 3 teams | — | 263 | 238 | 66 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 31 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 277 | 341 | 366 | 707 | 88 | 302 | 12 | 8 | 319 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 413 | 379 | 84 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 84 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 222 | 279 | 261 | 540 | 40 | 281 | 20 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 413 | 362 | 93 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 42 | 63 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 257 | 335 | 304 | 639 | 47 | 307 | 15 | 10 | 294 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 192 | 165 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 37 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 176 | 283 | 224 | 507 | 48 | 222 | 19 | 12 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays | — | 222 | 199 | 35 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 41 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 176 | 256 | 251 | 507 | 75 | 207 | 18 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 205 | 188 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 202 | 262 | 255 | 518 | 53 | 258 | 20 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 263 | 243 | 51 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 42 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 210 | 264 | 235 | 499 | 25 | 251 | 16 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 413 | 380 | 84 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 84 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 221 | 279 | 261 | 539 | 39 | 281 | 20 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 205 | 188 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 202 | 262 | 255 | 518 | 53 | 258 | 20 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 263 | 243 | 51 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 42 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 210 | 264 | 235 | 499 | 25 | 251 | 16 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 413 | 380 | 84 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 84 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 221 | 279 | 261 | 539 | 39 | 281 | 20 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | TB | 0% | 519 | 477 | 106 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 116 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 221 | 277 | 269 | 546 | 48 | 288 | 22 | 7 | 251 | 56 | -27 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +11 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | TB | 34% | 364 | 334 | 75 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 80 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 227 | 284 | 293 | 577 | 66 | 289 | 22 | 7 | 263 | 64 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | TB | 46% | 408 | 374 | 85 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 89 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 231 | 289 | 312 | 601 | 80 | 290 | 22 | 7 | 272 | 71 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | TB | 52% | 455 | 418 | 98 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 99 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 234 | 293 | 324 | 617 | 90 | 290 | 22 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | TB | 54% | 472 | 432 | 102 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 103 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 235 | 295 | 332 | 628 | 97 | 290 | 22 | 7 | 283 | 78 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | TB | 54% | 476 | 435 | 102 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 105 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 235 | 295 | 333 | 629 | 99 | 290 | 22 | 7 | 284 | 78 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | TB | 54% | 474 | 434 | 101 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 106 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 233 | 293 | 329 | 622 | 96 | 289 | 22 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -13 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | TB | 34% | 125 | 114 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 230 | 287 | 295 | 582 | 65 | 293 | 22 | 7 | 265 | 64 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | TB | 46% | 188 | 172 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 234 | 292 | 314 | 606 | 79 | 294 | 22 | 7 | 275 | 71 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | TB | 52% | 235 | 215 | 50 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 51 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 237 | 296 | 326 | 621 | 89 | 295 | 22 | 7 | 281 | 75 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | TB | 54% | 256 | 234 | 56 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 56 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 238 | 298 | 334 | 631 | 96 | 294 | 22 | 7 | 285 | 78 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | TB | 54% | 258 | 236 | 56 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 57 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 237 | 298 | 335 | 632 | 97 | 294 | 22 | 7 | 285 | 78 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | TB | 54% | 257 | 235 | 55 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 57 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 236 | 296 | 330 | 626 | 94 | 293 | 22 | 7 | 283 | 76 | -7 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1319 | 1206 | 285 | 41 | 8 | 18 | 96 | 290 | 6 | 20 | 8 | 236 | 296 | 328 | 624 | 92 | 295 | 22 | 7 | 280 | 65 | -40 | +1 | -0 | +5 | +29 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 594 | 140 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 47 | 143 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 236 | 295 | 328 | 623 | 93 | 294 | 22 | 7 | 280 | 65 | -20 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +14 | -0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4154 | 3793 | 842 | 114 | 28 | 35 | 307 | 874 | 21 | 98 | 39 | 222 | 284 | 294 | 578 | 73 | 278 | 21 | 7 | 264 | 65 | -93 | +2 | -1 | +10 | +62 | -2.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 131 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 48 | 137 | 3 | 15 | 6 | 221 | 283 | 290 | 572 | 69 | 276 | 21 | 7 | 264 | 65 | -21 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 287 PAwOBA .269 → .228 (−41)K% 13.2% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.24% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | — | 20.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | — | 3.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.995 | — | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .269 → .228; ISO .048 → .041; BABIP .267 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 126 PAwOBA .335 → .279 (−56)K% 19.8% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.84% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 25.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 6.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 33.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 2.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 1.05% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .335 → .279; ISO .045 → .038; BABIP .407 → .373. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Rays · 114 PAwOBA .348 → .253 (−94)K% 9.6% → 14.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.65% | ÷0.985 | ×1.440 | — | — | 14.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.40% | ÷0.991 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 7.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.95% | ÷1.018 | ×0.820 | ×0.971 | ×0.985 | 25.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.026 | ×0.720 | ×0.971 | ×0.985 | 1.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.14% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.971 | ×0.985 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.809 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .348 → .253; ISO .040 → .026; BABIP .360 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ACharleston RiverDogs · 20 PAwOBA .141 → .119 (−22)K% 20.0% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.006 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 3.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 6.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.850 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 6.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.121 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.159 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 103, 2B 70, 3B 124, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .141 → .119; ISO .053 → .048; BABIP .133 → .128. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Rays · 205 PAwOBA .313 → .233 (−79)K% 13.7% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.66% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.22% | ÷1.024 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.49% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.83% | ÷1.024 | ×0.820 | ×1.028 | ×0.995 | 20.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.37% | ÷0.941 | ×0.720 | ×1.028 | ×0.995 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.01% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.028 | ×0.995 | 1.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .313 → .233; ISO .079 → .057; BABIP .322 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Rays · 222 PAwOBA .343 → .230 (−113)K% 14.9% → 18.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.86% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.06% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 9.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 0.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.16% | ÷1.005 | ×0.680 | ×1.007 | ×0.995 | 17.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.23% | ÷0.993 | ×0.600 | ×1.007 | ×0.995 | 1.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.035 | ×0.600 | ×1.007 | ×0.995 | 1.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.94% | ÷0.938 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.97% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 101, 2B 99, 3B 107, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .343 → .230; ISO .128 → .073; BABIP .316 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Tampa Bay · 192 PAwOBA .340 → .241 (−99)K% 15.6% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.62% | ÷0.976 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.19% | ÷0.985 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 12.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.52% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.41% | ÷0.981 | ×0.680 | ×1.033 | ×1.008 | 17.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.72% | ÷0.973 | ×0.600 | ×1.033 | ×1.008 | 3.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.36% | ÷0.919 | ×0.600 | ×1.033 | ×1.008 | 1.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.273 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.29% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 96, 2B 95, 3B 84, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .340 → .241; ISO .096 → .059; BABIP .315 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .