Nicandro Aybar — OGILVIE

Nicandro Aybar3B Charleston RiverDogs

Age 21 S/R 6'1" / 170 lbs A HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION263 act + 175 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .277 / .262

PA175

HR0

K%19

BB%7

BABIP273

ISO44

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 61 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT61

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	192	169	35	5	3	0	21	45	1	9	4	207	298	272	571	65	280	23	11	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	192	157	41	6	3	1	33	30	1	9	4	261	393	357	749	96	315	16	17	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Rays	—	222	199	42	4	3	3	19	49	1	11	6	211	283	307	590	95	260	22	9	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Rays	—	222	188	52	5	5	3	29	33	1	11	6	277	374	404	779	128	316	15	13	347	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Rays	—	205	187	39	7	2	0	14	42	1	13	5	209	267	267	535	59	269	20	7	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Rays	—	205	177	48	8	3	0	24	28	1	13	5	271	361	350	712	79	322	14	12	322	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	INTL	3 teams	—	263	243	52	5	1	0	17	43	1	8	1	214	268	243	511	29	257	16	6	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	INTL	3 teams	—	263	238	66	7	1	4	22	31	1	8	1	277	341	366	707	88	302	12	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	TB	—	263	241	49	7	2	0	17	53	2	7	3	203	262	249	511	46	257	20	6	228	33	-20	+0	+0	+1	+7	-1.2
YTD	21	A	TB	—	263	229	53	8	2	0	27	37	2	7	3	231	315	284	599	52	272	14	10	277	70	-9	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.0
ROS	21	A	TB	0%	175	160	35	5	1	0	12	33	1	4	2	218	277	262	539	44	275	19	7	256	54	-9	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.4
ROS	21	MLB	TB	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		280	—	—	254	53	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	A	TB	—	263	242	49	7	2	0	17	53	2	7	3	202	262	248	509	45	255	20	6	228	33	-20	+0	+0	+1	+7	-1.2
TOT	21	A	TB	—	438	401	84	12	3	0	29	86	3	11	5	209	268	254	522	45	263	20	7	239	41	-29	+0	+0	+2	+12	-1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	TB	34%	477	437	99	15	3	4	34	90	3	9	3	227	287	302	589	76	278	19	7	272	67	-18	+1	+0	+2	+14	-0.2
2028	23	MLB	TB	48%	492	449	105	16	3	7	36	93	4	9	3	234	297	330	626	96	280	19	7	283	75	-14	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.2
2029	24	MLB	TB	53%	498	454	108	17	3	8	37	94	4	9	3	238	301	341	642	104	281	19	7	290	80	-11	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.5
2030	25	MLB	TB	55%	499	455	109	17	3	9	37	94	4	9	3	240	302	349	652	110	282	19	7	294	83	-10	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.7
2031	26	MLB	TB	56%	503	456	109	17	3	9	38	94	4	9	3	239	303	349	652	110	282	19	8	295	84	-9	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.8
2032	27	MLB	TB	55%	502	455	109	17	3	9	38	95	4	9	3	240	304	349	653	110	282	19	8	295	84	-9	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.8
2033	28	MLB	TB	55%	497	452	108	17	3	9	38	94	4	9	3	239	304	350	653	111	281	19	8	294	83	-9	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.6
2034	29	MLB	TB	53%	487	442	105	16	3	9	38	93	4	8	3	238	304	348	652	111	280	19	8	292	82	-10	+0	-1	+2	+14	0.5
2035	30	MLB	TB	53%	476	432	101	15	3	8	37	93	4	7	3	234	300	338	638	104	279	20	8	289	80	-11	+0	-2	+2	+13	0.2
2027	22	MLB	TB	34%	164	150	34	5	1	1	12	31	1	3	1	227	288	293	582	67	282	19	7	270	64	-7	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	TB	48%	238	217	52	8	2	3	17	45	2	4	2	240	301	336	637	97	284	19	7	280	72	-7	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.0
2029	24	MLB	TB	53%	263	240	58	9	2	4	19	49	2	5	2	242	303	346	649	104	285	19	7	286	77	-7	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.2
2030	25	MLB	TB	55%	273	249	61	9	2	5	20	51	2	5	2	245	306	357	664	112	286	19	7	290	80	-6	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2031	26	MLB	TB	56%	280	255	62	9	2	5	21	53	2	5	2	243	306	353	659	110	286	19	8	291	81	-6	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2032	27	MLB	TB	55%	276	251	61	9	2	5	21	52	2	5	2	243	307	355	661	112	286	19	8	291	81	-6	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2033	28	MLB	TB	55%	272	247	60	9	2	5	21	52	2	5	2	243	307	356	664	113	285	19	8	290	80	-6	+0	-0	+1	+8	0.2
2034	29	MLB	TB	53%	260	236	56	8	2	4	20	50	2	4	2	237	302	339	641	102	284	19	8	288	79	-6	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.1
2035	30	MLB	TB	53%	250	227	54	8	2	4	19	49	2	4	1	238	302	344	646	106	283	20	8	286	77	-7	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2276	2073	498	74	17	36	170	432	17	40	16	240	303	344	648	104	286	19	7	287	78	-58	+2	-2	+8	+64	1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	142	21	5	10	49	123	5	11	5	240	304	343	647	103	286	19	8	287	78	-17	+0	-1	+2	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	5488	4990	1156	173	37	75	416	1052	40	123	45	232	296	326	622	95	278	19	8	281	73	-165	+7	-4	+20	+156	1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	136	20	4	9	49	125	5	15	5	230	295	323	618	93	276	19	8	281	73	-20	+1	-0	+2	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	192	157	41	6	3	1	33	30	1	9	4	261	393	357	749	96	315	16	17	346	123	+5	+0	—	—	+5	1.1
2023	18	ROK	DSL Rays	—	222	188	52	5	5	3	29	33	1	11	6	277	374	404	779	128	316	15	13	347	124	+6	-0	—	—	+6	1.2
2024	19	ROK	FCL Rays	—	205	177	48	8	3	0	24	28	1	13	5	271	361	350	712	79	322	14	12	322	105	+1	+1	—	—	+6	0.8
2025	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	20	19	2	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	105	150	158	308	53	133	20	5	144	-31	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	20	ROK	FCL Rays	—	114	99	32	2	1	0	13	11	1	6	1	323	407	364	771	40	360	10	11	353	128	+4	+1	—	—	+3	0.8
2025	20	INTL	Perth Heat	—	129	120	32	4	0	4	8	16	0	2	0	267	312	400	713	133	277	12	6	316	100	-0	+0	—	—	+4	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#2Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	7	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	4	28	248	302	332	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	6	1,763	16	10	248	297	342	+5	+12	2.4	2.4
#5Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	/162	664	6	4	248	297	342	+1.9	+4.7	0.9	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,488	38	45	239	298	341	+9	+3	2.2	2.3
	/162	664	10	12	239	298	341	+2.4	+0.8	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nicandro Aybar (OGILVIE)	21	56→61	28→33	51→56	50	209/268/254	45	263	0	11	20%	7%	41	-1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Omar Casamayor 2008 · A	21	53	36→40	50→55	48	245/302/315	70	283	2	13	14%	6%	74	-0.1	231/277/292	61	286	2	10	19%	5%	57	-1.2	232/273/277	46	292	1	8	20%	4%	47	-0.6
✕Alejo Lopez 2017 · A	21	49→59	35→40	49→55	49	226/277/284	58	257	3	11	13%	6%	55	-1.4	235/288/311	76	283	4	9	17%	6%	66	-0.6	268/338/353	85	319	5	17	16%	8%	95	+1.1
✕Jonathan Herrera 2006 · A	21	49→58	36→40	47→55	44	233/279/296	63	287	3	12	20%	5%	59	-1.1	252/300/332	80	299	5	18	17%	6%	77	+0.1	260/308/337	78	305	5	20	16%	6%	78	+0.2
✕Breyvic Valera 2013 · A	21	49→59	37→45	51→50	46	229/280/310	81	272	3	12	17%	6%	63	-0.8	260/299/315	55	287	1	8	9%	5%	71	-0.3	245/297/357	112	260	11	10	11%	6%	79	+0.2
✕Brent Keys 2011 · A	21	48→58	35→30	49→50	51	224/291/282	57	273	2	12	18%	8%	61	-1.0	252/311/316	64	304	3	13	17%	7%	78	+0.2	277/340/332	55	310	2	12	10%	8%	90	+0.7
✕Zack Granite 2014 · A	21	49→59	34→40	50→60	49	226/279/281	56	264	1	11	15%	6%	55	-1.4	234/282/295	61	282	2	19	16%	6%	59	-1.1	259/306/333	74	299	3	30	14%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Carlos Mendoza 2021 · A	21	47→56	35→40	51→55	53	218/299/284	66	260	2	16	16%	9%	66	-0.6	237/342/307	70	303	3	14	20%	12%	91	+1.1	245/334/339	93	298	8	19	19%	9%	92	+0.8
✕Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 2010 · A	21	53→59	37→45	50	48	247/304/323	76	309	3	9	20%	7%	76	+0.1	261/309/361	100	310	6	14	17%	6%	89	+0.9	270/315/372	102	313	6	16	15%	5%	90	+1.0
✕Junior Valera 2014 · A	21	47	36→40	58→60	48	218/284/296	79	282	1	19	22%	8%	62	-0.9	228/289/317	89	300	4	16	23%	8%	69	-0.4	245/306/339	94	314	6	23	22%	8%	78	+0.1
●Henry Alejandro Rodriguez 2010 · A	20	50→59	37→45	53→55	46	233/275/308	75	273	3	13	16%	5%	60	-1.0	254/282/362	108	299	10	17	18%	3%	78	+0.2	270/301/382	112	304	12	11	15%	4%	91	+0.7
✕Hainley Statia 2007 · A	21	53→57	36→40	46→50	48	246/297/321	74	294	2	13	17%	6%	72	-0.2	243/286/319	76	285	3	15	15%	6%	68	-0.5	229/299/297	69	276	5	9	18%	9%	65	-0.4
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2016 · A	21	52→56	34→40	47→55	43	240/287/287	47	297	1	10	19%	4%	59	-1.1	245/298/305	60	294	3	10	16%	5%	69	-0.4	264/312/341	77	299	6	21	14%	5%	81	+0.3
✕Yonny Hernández 2018 · A	20	46→56	34→30	54→60	54	211/290/266	56	248	1	20	15%	9%	57	-1.2	233/312/289	56	299	1	25	20%	9%	72	-0.2	268/330/326	58	319	3	17	16%	7%	84	+0.3
✕Herbert Lara 2009 · A	21	50	35→30	48→50	49	230/289/286	55	265	2	10	14%	6%	61	-1.0	211/264/298	87	248	7	7	17%	6%	53	-1.5	177/228/270	92	191	12	3	15%	5%	28	-0.9
●Xavier Edwards 2021 · A	21	52→62	35→40	55→60	47	244/289/309	65	286	2	19	15%	6%	66	-0.6	247/298/319	72	299	4	20	18%	7%	73	-0.1	304/363/386	81	348	4	36	13%	8%	114	+2.3
✕Gilberto Jimenez 2021 · A	21	48→58	37→40	47→50	42	226/277/302	76	294	3	10	23%	5%	60	-1.0	238/269/324	86	343	6	13	31%	3%	62	-0.9	234/263/321	86	339	7	15	32%	3%	55	-0.8
✕Rafael Ynoa 2009 · A	21	45→55	35→40	48→55	54	209/288/270	61	254	2	10	18%	9%	57	-1.2	215/273/287	72	263	5	14	19%	7%	55	-1.4	245/298/316	71	292	5	19	17%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Ildemaro Vargas 2012 · A	21	46→55	37→45	47→50	49	213/280/293	80	254	3	7	17%	7%	59	-1.1	229/272/302	73	269	4	6	15%	5%	58	-1.2	263/306/353	90	281	7	12	9%	5%	82	+0.4
✕Isaias Velasquez 2009 · A	21	47→57	34→40	54→55	46	221/279/276	55	282	2	19	21%	6%	54	-1.4	244/294/324	80	310	2	16	21%	6%	72	-0.2	253/305/339	85	317	2	19	19%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Carlos Rodríguez 2022 · A	21	48→58	35→40	50	44	223/276/288	65	306	2	14	26%	7%	56	-1.3	244/300/330	86	315	4	15	22%	7%	77	+0.1	266/324/354	88	323	4	16	17%	7%	89	+0.6