Waner Luciano

SS Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 210 lbs A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	AHOU	309	.179/.270/.267	5	13	17	—	.149/.218/.216
2026	21	AHOU	303	.261/.391/.445	9	21	90	—	.220/.320/.359
2026	21	INTLScottsdale Sc…	28	.261/.393/.304	0	1	112	—
2027PROJ0% MLB	22	MLBHOU	429	.200/.282/.309	8	11	69	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBHOU	121	.208/.290/.326	2	3	74	0.0
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBHOU	194	.212/.294/.335	4	5	77	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

K%83

wRC+81

BB%78

wOBA76

ISO74

Whiff%68

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 5, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 89%

CompsJose Rosario (age 22) · Elio Prado (age 22) · Max George (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 315 proj PA

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .280 / .306

PA315

HR6

SB8

K%23

BB%9

ISO108

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL HOU Orange	—	214	170	39	11	2	6	34	42	9	9	2	229	385	424	809	194	268	20	16	366	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	194	166	41	8	0	10	22	36	4	5	0	247	349	476	825	229	254	19	11	362	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	298	252	47	12	0	3	36	62	6	1	3	187	303	270	573	83	230	21	12	269	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	309	273	49	9	0	5	26	63	8	13	3	179	270	267	538	88	213	20	8	251	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	303	245	64	18	0	9	48	51	4	21	6	261	391	445	835	184	289	17	16	369	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK	FCL Astros	—	16	12	4	0	0	1	4	2	0	2	0	333	500	583	1.083	250	333	12	25	474	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	28	23	6	1	0	0	4	6	1	1	0	261	393	304	697	43	353	21	14	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	—	214	182	24	6	1	3	22	52	9	9	2	132	258	225	483	93	166	24	10	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	194	174	30	6	0	6	14	49	4	5	0	172	250	310	560	138	196	25	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	298	264	39	9	0	2	24	83	6	1	3	148	235	205	439	57	197	28	8	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	309	282	42	7	0	4	17	86	8	13	3	149	218	216	435	67	189	28	6	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	303	259	57	15	0	7	34	69	4	21	6	220	320	359	679	139	256	23	11	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	16	14	4	0	0	1	2	3	0	2	0	286	375	500	875	214	262	19	12	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	—	214	182	24	6	1	3	22	52	9	9	2	132	258	225	483	93	164	24	10	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Orange	—	214	170	39	11	2	6	34	42	9	9	2	229	385	424	809	194	268	20	16	366	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	194	174	30	6	0	6	14	49	4	5	0	172	250	310	560	138	198	25	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	194	166	41	8	0	10	22	36	4	5	0	247	349	476	825	229	254	19	11	362	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	298	264	39	9	0	2	24	83	6	1	3	148	235	205	439	57	202	28	8	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	298	252	47	12	0	3	36	62	6	1	3	187	303	270	573	83	230	21	12	269	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	309	282	42	7	0	4	17	86	8	13	3	149	218	216	435	67	196	28	6	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	309	273	49	9	0	5	26	63	8	13	3	179	270	267	538	88	213	20	8	251	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	347	297	66	17	0	9	39	79	5	24	6	222	323	370	693	148	266	23	11	303	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	3 teams	—	347	280	74	19	0	10	56	59	5	24	6	264	396	439	835	175	296	17	16	371	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	—	214	181	24	6	1	3	22	52	9	9	2	133	258	227	485	94	166	24	10	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	194	174	30	6	0	6	14	49	4	5	0	172	250	310	560	138	196	25	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	298	266	39	9	0	2	24	83	6	1	3	147	235	203	438	56	197	28	8	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	309	281	42	7	0	4	17	86	8	13	3	149	218	217	435	68	189	28	6	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	347	300	66	17	0	9	39	79	5	24	6	220	323	367	689	147	256	23	11	303	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	298	266	39	9	0	2	24	83	6	1	3	147	235	203	438	56	197	28	8	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	309	281	42	7	0	4	17	86	8	13	3	149	218	217	435	68	189	28	6	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	347	300	66	17	0	9	39	79	5	24	6	220	323	367	689	147	256	23	11	303	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	429	382	77	17	1	8	38	99	6	11	3	200	282	309	591	108	247	23	9	270	69	-16	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	353	314	65	14	1	7	31	80	5	9	2	205	287	322	610	117	250	23	9	277	74	-11	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	HOU	46%	421	374	79	17	1	9	38	95	6	10	3	209	291	331	623	122	253	23	9	283	77	-11	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	459	409	86	18	1	10	41	103	6	10	3	212	294	337	631	126	255	22	9	286	80	-11	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	481	429	91	19	1	11	43	108	6	10	3	213	295	341	636	127	256	22	9	288	81	-11	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	490	437	93	20	1	11	44	111	6	10	3	214	295	342	637	128	258	23	9	288	81	-11	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	490	437	92	19	1	11	44	112	6	8	3	212	294	337	631	125	257	23	9	286	79	-12	+0	-1	+5	+11	0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	484	432	91	19	1	11	43	112	6	7	2	210	291	331	622	121	256	23	9	282	77	-13	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	476	425	89	19	1	10	42	111	6	6	2	207	288	324	611	117	254	23	9	278	74	-15	+0	-2	+5	+10	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	121	107	22	5	0	2	11	28	2	3	1	208	290	326	615	117	254	23	9	280	74	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	HOU	46%	194	172	36	8	0	4	17	44	3	5	1	212	294	335	628	123	257	23	9	285	77	-5	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	237	211	44	10	0	5	21	53	3	5	1	214	296	341	637	126	259	22	9	288	80	-6	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	261	233	51	11	1	6	23	59	3	6	2	216	297	344	641	128	261	23	9	290	81	-6	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	266	237	51	11	1	6	24	60	3	5	2	217	298	345	643	128	262	23	9	291	81	-6	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	266	237	51	11	1	6	24	61	3	5	1	215	296	340	636	126	261	23	9	288	79	-6	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	257	229	48	11	0	5	23	59	3	4	1	213	293	334	628	122	260	23	9	285	77	-7	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	271	242	50	11	0	5	24	63	3	3	1	210	290	327	617	117	259	23	9	280	74	-8	+0	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1873	1668	353	78	3	39	167	427	23	36	10	212	292	332	624	121	260	23	9	286	70	-48	+3	-2	+20	+41	1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	123	27	1	14	58	148	8	12	3	212	293	335	628	123	260	23	9	286	70	-17	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5331	4736	943	202	9	110	470	1254	83	130	37	199	283	315	598	116	245	24	9	271	70	-107	+6	-4	+43	+86	2.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	115	25	1	13	57	153	10	16	5	199	282	314	596	114	246	24	9	271	70	-17	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4George Strickland'50-'60 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,266 PA	4.9	3,266	36	12	219*	302*	329*	+28	+19	3.8	5.0
/162	664	7	2	+5.7	+3.8	0.8	pk7: 6
#5Lennie Merullo'41-'47 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,264 PA	3.4	2,264	6	38	234*	283*	339*	+24	+15	3.3	3.3
/162	664	2	11	+7.1	+4.4	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	3.3	2,188	47	43	210	288	332	+23	+15	2.7	2.6
/162	664	14	13	+7.1	+4.6	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Waner Luciano (OGILVIE)	22	25	30	50	30	199/280/306	108	247	6	8	23%	9%	69	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Rosario 2014 · A	22	41	44→40	51→50	42	207/260/321	114	253	11	12	23%	5%	63	-1.3	235/273/320	85	293	5	9	21%	4%	67	-1.1	246/276/325	79	308	4	9	21%	3%	65	-0.7
✕Elio Prado 2024 · A	22	40→37	42→40	46→50	45	199/275/302	103	259	10	9	26%	7%	65	-1.2	190/255/279	89	267	8	14	30%	7%	52	-2.2	168/233/235	68	243	6	17	32%	7%	32	-1.7
✕Max George 2018 · A	22	39	42→45	50→55	45	195/270/303	109	255	9	15	27%	7%	64	-1.3	188/271/296	108	261	10	20	30%	7%	63	-1.4	145/250/272	127	214	15	25	38%	9%	49	-1.2
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/293/300	81	280	8	4	23%	7%	72	-0.7	211/298/265	54	265	5	1	21%	8%	64	-0.3
✕Luis De La Cruz 2011 · A	22	40	40→30	47→30	38	195/231/295	100	253	6	6	26%	4%	45	-2.7	235/266/315	80	286	4	6	19%	4%	63	-1.4	266/288/334	68	312	3	4	16%	3%	71	-0.3
✕Riccio Torrez 2012 · A	22	41→34	43→40	46→45	39	205/249/308	103	258	11	7	25%	4%	56	-1.9	193/249/284	91	245	8	5	24%	4%	51	-2.2	184/240/270	86	233	7	4	24%	4%	42	-1.5
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	194/232/294	100	263	8	10	29%	4%	46	-2.6	197/236/287	90	278	6	9	30%	5%	45	-2.7	236/292/311	74	314	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	42→40	46→45	49	206/292/311	105	279	9	6	28%	9%	74	-0.6	222/303/310	88	316	7	6	29%	9%	78	-0.3	239/331/311	72	336	7	6	28%	11%	86	+0.1
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	44	42→45	55	47	215/295/325	110	284	9	14	26%	8%	78	-0.3	222/280/325	103	297	9	9	27%	6%	72	-0.7	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Alex Mooney 2024 · A	22	41→39	39→40	53→55	44	196/263/283	87	261	6	12	26%	6%	56	-1.9	190/263/289	99	265	8	27	30%	7%	58	-1.7	182/255/278	96	255	8	30	30%	7%	51	-1.8
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	41→37	44→45	49→50	41	202/273/319	117	276	11	8	30%	6%	69	-0.9	208/282/339	131	278	13	10	29%	6%	77	-0.3	207/286/352	145	264	16	10	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Luke Williams 2019 · A	22	41→44	38→45	50→65	42	199/251/269	70	259	6	15	25%	5%	47	-2.5	210/270/306	96	280	7	19	26%	7%	63	-1.3	229/291/325	96	311	8	37	27%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Mariel Bautista 2021 · A	23	41→36	42→40	49→50	39	203/253/300	97	265	10	15	27%	5%	56	-1.9	210/256/331	121	304	12	11	34%	5%	64	-1.3	185/218/329	144	263	16	11	36%	3%	49	-0.6
✕Grae Kessinger 2021 · A	23	43→30	39→45	50	47	208/276/293	85	264	7	12	23%	8%	63	-1.4	192/262/298	106	257	12	15	29%	8%	59	-1.6	186/264/278	92	250	9	8	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Danny Mendick 2016 · A	22	41→47	42→45	50	45	204/261/304	99	246	10	9	21%	6%	60	-1.6	207/263/297	90	260	7	9	22%	6%	59	-1.7	237/296/342	105	299	11	4	23%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	42	41→40	46→45	40	203/258/299	95	286	8	8	31%	6%	57	-1.8	200/263/285	85	289	7	9	31%	7%	56	-1.9	185/254/258	73	266	7	8	31%	7%	46	-1.1
✕Frank Rodriguez 2024 · A	22	35	42→45	47→30	38	180/236/279	99	250	10	4	32%	5%	45	-2.7	188/246/274	86	257	8	4	29%	6%	47	-2.5	183/244/267	84	241	9	1	27%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Janelfry Zorrilla 2013 · A	22	41	42→40	49→50	47	201/267/310	109	237	9	11	20%	6%	63	-1.3	218/264/307	89	300	8	6	29%	5%	61	-1.5	220/260/298	78	300	9	3	29%	4%	55	-1.1
✕Jeter Downs 2019 · A	21	42→41	43→50	52→55	44	208/273/317	109	269	11	18	26%	7%	68	-1.0	210/276/360	150	277	17	18	29%	7%	79	-0.2	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Efrain Contreras 2009 · A	22	42	40	52→55	45	204/269/294	91	238	7	13	18%	5%	61	-1.5	198/253/276	78	281	6	8	30%	5%	50	-2.3	182/235/246	64	272	6	7	33%	5%	34	-1.4

Waner Luciano

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps