Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | 11 | 7 | 35 | 157 | 30 | 22 | 0 | 64% | 3.2 | 13.0% | 17.5% | -4.5% | 0.0% | 5.97 | 4.22 | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | 11 | 7 | 35 | 157 | 30 | 22 | 0 | 64% | 3.2 | 19.1% | 14.0% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 5.97 | 3.27 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | 11 | 11 | 45 | 180 | 57 | 16 | 1 | 100% | 4.1 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 0.7% | 3.22 | 3.09 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | 11 | 11 | 45 | 180 | 57 | 16 | 1 | 100% | 4.1 | 31.7% | 8.9% | 22.8% | 0.6% | 3.22 | 1.91 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 7 | 70 | 311 | 85 | 27 | 4 | 37% | 3.7 | 19.1% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 1.7% | 5.17 | 3.77 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 7 | 70 | 311 | 85 | 27 | 4 | 37% | 3.7 | 27.3% | 8.7% | 18.6% | 1.3% | 5.17 | 2.57 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 32 | 11 | 91 | 404 | 92 | 48 | 9 | 34% | 2.8 | 17.5% | 13.7% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 3.86 | 4.37 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 32 | 11 | 91 | 404 | 92 | 48 | 9 | 34% | 2.8 | 22.8% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 2.2% | 3.86 | 3.95 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 20 | 1 | 31 | 146 | 31 | 25 | 5 | 5% | 1.6 | 17.2% | 18.8% | -1.6% | 4.1% | 7.55 | 6.29 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | MIL | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 40 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.0% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 5.30 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | MIL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 5.30 | 5.30 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 87 | 382 | 71 | 59 | 11 | — | — | 18.6% | 15.3% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 6.10 | 5.65 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.0% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 5.30 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 56 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 46 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 12.6% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 5.05 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 51 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.84 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 23 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 12.6% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 5.05 | 4.95 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 37 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.84 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 0 | 75 | 318 | 61 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 12.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 4.93 | 4.45 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 162 | 101 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 12.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 4.93 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 93 | 37 | 271 | 1198 | 215 | 163 | 20 | 40% | 2.9 | 17.9% | 13.6% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 4.78 | 4.24 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 27 | 200 | 884 | 158 | 121 | 15 | 40% | 2.9 | 17.9% | 13.6% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 4.78 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anthony Flores (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.30 | 17.0% | 14.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.84 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 120 | -0.46 | — | — | — |
| Alex Winkelman L 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.37 | 15.8% | 14.7% | 1.4% | .344 | 3.74 | 18.8% | 6.5% | 181 | -0.63 | 3.37 | 246 | 86 |
| Luis De Paula L 2028 · 4.44 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.44 | 14.8% | 14.2% | 1.4% | .285 | 5.36 | 16.4% | 0.2% | 47 | +0.92 | 4.44 | 125 | 84 |
| Matt Walker L 2028 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.27 | 16.7% | 13.3% | 1.6% | .324 | 4.69 | 15.5% | 4.0% | 94 | +0.42 | 4.27 | 156 | 83 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2029 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.77 | 16.9% | 16.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.67 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 179 | -0.10 | 4.57 | 242 | 83 |
| Estevan Gonzalez L 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.69 | 14.1% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .322 | 4.80 | 14.7% | 0.1% | 130 | +0.11 | 4.62 | 195 | 82 |
| Connor Oliver L 2028 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.29 | 17.3% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .314 | 5.52 | 19.2% | 3.4% | 121 | +1.23 | 4.29 | 200 | 82 |
| Austin Davis L 2027 · 5.07 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.07 | 14.7% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .259 | 2.95 | 23.3% | 15.8% | 151 | -2.12 | 2.22 | 486 | 82 |
| Victor Cabreja L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.20 | 15.8% | 14.5% | 1.1% | .213 | 5.26 | 11.1% | 1.6% | 164 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 233 | 81 |
| Scott Squier L 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.89 | 12.2% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .362 | 4.13 | 13.9% | 7.9% | 234 | -0.76 | 3.30 | 276 | 80 |
| Ryan Wilson L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.93 | 16.2% | 13.8% | 2.6% | .279 | 4.41 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 113 | -0.52 | 3.43 | 222 | 80 |
| Oscar Armenta L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.37 | 11.8% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .318 | 4.90 | 9.8% | -5.0% | 59 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 118 | 80 |
| Colby Langford L 2027 · 5.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.24 | 21.6% | 22.5% | 2.0% | .273 | 6.09 | 22.9% | -1.5% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.82 | 153 | 80 |
| Riley Cooper L 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.27 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 1.9% | .287 | 4.35 | 18.6% | 8.4% | 44 | +0.08 | 4.27 | 132 | 79 |
| Sam Clay L 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.13 | 15.9% | 14.1% | 1.1% | .330 | 3.71 | 17.9% | 3.0% | 232 | -0.42 | 2.50 | 514 | 78 |
| Dante Biasi L 2028 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .251 | 6.01 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +1.13 | 4.88 | 224 | 78 |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.64 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.8% | .289 | 2.98 | 26.6% | 12.9% | 99 | -1.66 | 2.15 | 175 | 78 |
| Bryce Hubbart L 2027 · 5.82 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.82 | 17.0% | 26.0% | 1.6% | .303 | 5.00 | 17.4% | 3.9% | 136 | -0.82 | 4.73 | 181 | 78 |
| Manuel Osorio L 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 20 | SU | 5.22 | 18.7% | 15.3% | 3.2% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 153 | 78 |
| Luis Silva L 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.05 | 14.1% | 13.4% | 2.6% | .311 | 6.59 | 8.7% | -7.4% | 12 | +1.54 | 4.48 | 107 | 78 |
| Cole Reynolds L 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.81 | 16.4% | 16.2% | 1.9% | .304 | 5.26 | 17.3% | 0.4% | 52 | +0.45 | 4.81 | 108 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 18.5% | 12.8% | 1.02 | 5.06 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |