Anthony Flores — OGILVIE

Anthony Flores P Biloxi Shuckers

+0.1 WAR

Age 21 LHP 5'10" / 165 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.1 · 2031

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.7%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%9.5%

IP80

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.1peak

2031

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 2	11	7	35	157	30	22	0	13.0%	17.5%	0.0%	5.97	4.22	+0.3
2023	18	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	11	11	45	180	57	16	1	21.5%	11.1%	0.7%	3.22	3.10	+0.9
2024	19	A	Carolina Mudcats	19	7	70	311	85	27	4	19.1%	10.6%	1.7%	5.17	3.79	+1.0
2025	20	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	32	11	91	404	92	48	9	17.5%	13.7%	2.3%	3.86	4.64	+0.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	4	0	5	22	5	5	0	—	—	—	3.38	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	MIL	15	15	80	338	70	38	9	20.7%	11.2%	2.8%	4.68	4.68	+0.4
2026 Total	21	MLB	MIL	—	—	85	360	75	43	9	20.8%	11.9%	2.6%	4.60	4.39	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	MIL	15	15	84	355	77	36	10	21.8%	10.0%	2.7%	4.51	4.42	+0.7
2028	23	MLB	MIL	19	19	107	453	102	42	12	22.5%	9.3%	2.7%	4.35	4.25	+1.3
2029	24	MLB	MIL	23	23	126	532	122	47	14	23.0%	8.9%	2.7%	4.22	4.14	+1.7
2030	25	MLB	MIL	25	25	140	589	138	51	16	23.4%	8.6%	2.7%	4.14	4.08	+1.9
2031	26	MLB	MIL	27	27	146	619	146	53	17	23.6%	8.6%	2.7%	4.09	4.06	+2.1
2032	27	MLB	MIL	27	27	149	631	149	54	17	23.6%	8.6%	2.7%	4.08	4.07	+2.1
2033	28	MLB	MIL	27	27	149	630	148	55	17	23.5%	8.7%	2.7%	4.09	4.09	+2.0
2034	29	MLB	MIL	27	27	146	616	144	54	17	23.4%	8.8%	2.8%	4.12	4.14	+1.9
2035	30	MLB	MIL	26	26	141	597	139	53	17	23.2%	8.9%	2.8%	4.17	4.20	+1.8
2036	31	MLB	MIL	25	25	136	576	132	52	17	23.0%	9.0%	2.9%	4.23	4.28	+1.6
2037	32	MLB	MIL	24	24	131	553	126	50	17	22.7%	9.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.36	+1.4
2038	33	MLB	MIL	23	23	125	528	118	49	16	22.4%	9.3%	3.1%	4.40	4.46	+1.2
2039	34	MLB	MIL	22	22	119	502	111	48	16	22.0%	9.5%	3.2%	4.50	4.57	+1.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			77	36	245	1074	194	141	16	18.1%	13.1%	1.5%	4.40	4.06	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—			63	29	200	876	158	115	13	18.1%	13.1%	1.5%	4.40	4.06	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anthony Flores (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	20.7%	11.2%	2.8%	—	4.25	22.5%	13.2%	317	-0.43	—	—	—
Rylan Kaufman L 2027 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	19.3%	12.1%	3.0%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.08	4.01	212	94
Andrew Faulkner L 2027 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP-	4.76	18.0%	12.8%	2.9%	.290	4.07	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.69	3.72	252	93
John Beller L 2027 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP-	4.60	19.7%	14.1%	2.5%	.326	4.38	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.22	4.21	170	92
Keegan Akin L 2027 · 4.63 FIP	22	SP-	4.63	20.2%	12.5%	3.0%	.303	4.26	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.37	2.56	718	92
Luis Rico L 2026 · 4.51 FIP	21	SP-	4.51	17.2%	13.0%	2.2%	.303	4.99	17.8%	5.9%	105	+0.48	4.26	199	91
Connor O'Halloran L 2026 · 5.08 FIP	21	SP-	5.08	17.2%	12.3%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	5.08	104	89
Dominic Perachi L 2027 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.56	17.8%	7.8%	150	-1.63	3.30	240	89
Riley Cooper L 2027 · 4.27 FIP	22	SP-	4.27	16.6%	12.0%	1.9%	.287	4.70	16.5%	8.0%	32	+0.43	4.27	120	89
Adam Tulloch L 2028 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.5%	.313	4.46	17.7%	2.8%	117	-0.05	4.21	212	88
Max Fried L 2027 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.73	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.12	2.46	1,369	88
Seth Lonsway L 2028 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.18	16.0%	4.2%	319	-0.22	3.35	414	87
Brandon Finnegan L 2027 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	21.3%	12.8%	2.9%	.287	5.02	18.5%	6.5%	273	+0.52	3.85	489	87
Sam Garcia L 2028 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP-	5.14	18.5%	12.7%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	5.14	101	87
Daniel McGrath L 2026 · 4.65 FIP	21	SP-	4.65	15.2%	11.9%	2.4%	.269	4.69	14.8%	2.8%	277	+0.04	3.51	474	87
Brett Adcock L 2026 · 4.06 FIP	21	SP-	4.06	19.7%	10.0%	2.5%	.294	4.61	17.2%	2.8%	193	+0.55	4.02	301	86
Joe Whitman L 2027 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP-	3.91	18.6%	9.9%	2.1%	.303	3.79	20.4%	10.8%	131	-0.12	3.78	234	86
Brandon Knarr L 2028 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP-	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.17	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.69	4.10	256	85
Andrew Sears L 2026 · 4.26 FIP	21	SP-	4.26	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.31	20.5%	11.7%	111	+0.05	4.26	201	85
Tate Kuehner L 2028 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP-	4.06	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.73	20.9%	7.7%	116	-0.33	2.85	221	85
Drew Dowd L 2027 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP-	4.39	16.1%	11.7%	2.1%	.280	3.14	24.9%	16.0%	55	-1.25	3.14	166	85

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.7	$15M	+$14M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.9	$17M	+$16M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.1	$19M	+$19M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+2.1	$20M	+$17M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.0	$20M	+$14M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+1.9	$19M	+$12M
Totals		$19M		$110M	+$92M