Alberto Mendez — OGILVIE

Alberto MendezSS Lynchburg Hillcats

Age 21 L/R 5'9" / 146 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 157 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .269 / .288

PA157

HR2

K%27

BB%7

ISO86

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-2	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL CLE Blue	—	167	146	24	3	1	1	19	67	2	5	1	164	269	219	489	55	295	40	11	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL CLE Blue	—	167	133	34	4	2	2	32	44	2	5	1	256	407	361	768	105	368	26	19	358	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	150	125	17	2	0	2	18	51	4	6	4	136	265	200	465	64	200	34	12	224	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	150	112	24	2	0	5	31	36	4	6	4	214	401	366	767	152	257	24	21	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	167	151	16	5	0	3	13	69	3	2	1	106	192	199	390	93	165	41	8	184	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	167	143	26	9	0	5	21	47	3	2	1	182	299	350	649	168	231	28	13	297	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	167	152	26	4	1	1	12	48	2	3	2	171	241	230	471	59	240	29	7	218	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	167	146	36	5	2	1	18	33	2	3	2	247	337	329	666	82	310	20	11	306	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	CLE	—	157	143	30	6	1	2	11	42	2	2	1	210	276	308	583	98	274	27	7	256	54	-8	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	CLE	34%	243	220	47	9	1	4	18	63	3	4	1	214	282	318	600	105	277	26	7	269	64	-10	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.0
2028	23	MLB	CLE	48%	345	312	68	13	2	6	26	88	4	5	2	218	287	330	617	112	279	26	8	277	70	-12	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.2
2029	24	MLB	CLE	53%	416	376	83	16	2	8	32	104	5	7	2	221	291	338	628	117	281	25	8	282	74	-12	+1	+0	+4	+12	0.5
2030	25	MLB	CLE	55%	455	412	91	17	3	9	35	114	5	7	2	221	290	342	632	121	281	25	8	285	76	-12	+1	+0	+5	+13	0.6
2031	26	MLB	CLE	56%	479	434	95	18	3	9	37	119	5	8	2	219	288	336	624	118	281	25	8	285	77	-13	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.7
2032	27	MLB	CLE	55%	488	440	97	18	3	10	39	122	6	8	3	220	293	343	636	123	281	25	8	286	77	-13	+0	+0	+5	+14	0.7
2033	28	MLB	CLE	55%	489	442	97	18	3	10	39	123	5	8	2	219	290	342	632	122	280	25	8	285	76	-13	+1	-1	+5	+14	0.6
2034	29	MLB	CLE	53%	483	436	95	18	3	9	39	122	5	7	2	218	290	335	624	117	280	25	8	283	75	-14	+1	-1	+5	+14	0.4
2035	30	MLB	CLE	53%	475	429	93	18	2	9	38	122	5	7	2	217	288	331	619	114	279	26	8	280	73	-15	+1	-2	+5	+13	0.2
2036	31	MLB	CLE	56%	463	418	89	17	2	8	37	120	5	6	2	213	285	321	605	108	277	26	8	277	70	-16	+0	-3	+5	+13	-0.0
2027	22	MLB	CLE	34%	83	76	15	3	0	1	6	21	1	1	0	197	265	276	541	79	277	25	7	261	58	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	CLE	48%	167	150	33	6	1	3	13	42	2	3	1	220	291	333	624	113	280	25	8	269	64	-7	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.0
2029	24	MLB	CLE	53%	219	198	43	8	1	4	17	55	2	3	1	217	286	328	614	111	281	25	8	274	68	-8	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.1
2030	25	MLB	CLE	55%	249	225	49	9	1	5	19	62	3	4	1	218	287	333	621	116	282	25	8	277	70	-8	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.2
2031	26	MLB	CLE	56%	267	241	54	10	2	5	21	67	3	4	1	224	294	344	639	120	281	25	8	277	70	-9	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.2
2032	27	MLB	CLE	55%	268	242	54	10	2	5	21	67	3	4	1	223	293	343	636	120	281	25	8	277	71	-9	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.2
2033	28	MLB	CLE	55%	267	241	52	10	1	5	21	67	3	4	1	216	287	328	615	112	281	25	8	277	70	-9	+0	-0	+3	+8	0.1
2034	29	MLB	CLE	53%	258	232	51	10	1	5	21	65	3	4	1	220	293	336	629	116	280	25	8	275	69	-9	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.1
2035	30	MLB	CLE	53%	250	225	49	9	1	5	20	64	3	4	1	218	290	333	624	116	279	26	8	273	67	-9	+0	-1	+3	+7	-0.0
2036	31	MLB	CLE	56%	261	235	50	9	1	5	21	68	3	4	1	213	286	323	609	111	277	26	8	269	64	-11	+0	-2	+3	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2289	2065	450	84	11	43	180	578	26	35	9	218	289	332	621	114	280	25	8	274	68	-83	+3	-4	+25	+65	0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	128	24	3	12	51	164	7	10	3	218	289	331	620	113	281	25	8	274	68	-24	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	5144	4636	968	182	27	91	413	1374	61	85	29	209	282	319	601	110	274	27	8	272	67	-194	+5	-7	+55	+146	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	121	23	3	11	52	174	8	11	4	206	280	312	592	106	272	27	8	272	67	-25	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL CLE Blue	—	167	133	34	4	2	2	32	44	2	5	1	256	407	361	768	105	368	26	19	358	132	+6	+1	—	—	+5	1.2
2023	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	150	112	24	2	0	5	31	36	4	6	4	214	401	366	767	152	257	24	21	353	128	+5	-0	—	—	+4	0.9
2024	19	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	167	143	26	9	0	5	21	47	3	2	1	182	299	350	649	168	231	28	13	297	86	-3	+0	—	—	+5	0.2
2025	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	167	146	36	5	2	1	18	33	2	3	2	247	337	329	666	82	310	20	11	306	92	-1	-0	—	—	+5	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,447	44	38	219	286	334	+26	+18	2.1	2.1
	/162	664	12	10	219	286	334	+7.1	+4.9	0.6	pk7: 2
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alberto Mendez (OGILVIE)	21	40	25	45	40	203/269/288	86	274	2	2	27%	7%	54	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sergio Burruel 2012 · A	21	42	35→30	42→30	47	198/274/259	61	274	3	4	27%	8%	50	-1.8	213/266/275	62	297	3	6	27%	6%	48	-1.9	241/305/316	75	293	8	1	20%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Kier Meredith 2022 · A	22	42	36→30	51→60	45	198/268/265	67	279	4	12	29%	8%	47	-1.9	206/304/278	72	297	4	26	29%	9%	68	-0.5	217/333/268	51	299	3	35	25%	10%	75	-0.0
✕David Martin 2023 · A	22	45	39→30	49→30	42	211/285/301	89	298	5	7	29%	6%	65	-0.7	218/299/286	68	273	4	4	20%	8%	67	-0.5	236/329/295	58	282	5	1	16%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	41	36→40	45→50	44	192/261/262	70	277	4	9	30%	8%	43	-2.2	192/257/257	65	308	3	10	35%	8%	40	-2.4	156/232/188	31	269	0	14	38%	9%	10	-1.5
✕Livan Soto 2021 · A	21	42→52	35→40	46→50	46	196/252/252	55	246	3	8	21%	7%	37	-2.7	207/267/298	91	283	7	11	28%	7%	55	-1.4	236/307/320	84	310	7	8	24%	9%	76	+0.0
✕Oswal Leones 2022 · A	21	46	35→30	46→50	45	213/270/279	66	293	2	7	27%	7%	50	-1.7	191/256/260	69	303	4	9	35%	7%	41	-2.3	142/217/193	50	237	3	13	38%	8%	5	-2.0
✕Elias Arias 2016 · A	22	45	36→30	46→55	46	211/274/274	63	275	4	13	24%	7%	52	-1.6	200/254/283	83	304	6	9	34%	6%	46	-2.0	161/210/245	83	254	7	9	38%	5%	13	-0.9
✕Juan Centeno 2011 · A	21	43	37→45	50→40	44	204/257/271	67	265	4	9	24%	6%	44	-2.1	244/285/305	61	305	2	6	20%	5%	63	-0.8	238/286/352	114	281	11	2	19%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Alvaro Ramirez 2007 · A	21	46	35→40	47→55	40	216/274/276	60	291	2	12	25%	4%	53	-1.5	228/293/312	84	278	5	17	19%	6%	70	-0.3	243/311/332	89	284	5	22	15%	6%	80	+0.1
✕Cesar Berbesi 2021 · A	21	45	36→30	44→55	47	210/277/279	69	275	2	7	23%	7%	55	-1.4	197/293/285	88	340	5	13	38%	11%	64	-0.8	160/273/224	64	328	3	21	45%	13%	40	-0.7
✕Raynel Delgado 2021 · A	21	46→56	37→40	50→60	42	217/268/291	74	307	4	9	30%	6%	53	-1.5	197/260/284	87	287	7	14	32%	7%	49	-1.8	242/304/336	94	333	8	32	28%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Deivi Estrada 2022 · A	21	45	36→30	46→50	45	208/280/278	70	305	4	8	31%	8%	56	-1.3	185/243/254	69	328	3	8	41%	6%	33	-2.9	146/188/204	58	314	3	4	52%	4%	-7	-1.2
✕Carlos Luis 2021 · A	21	44→51	36→45	48→40	40	206/259/276	69	305	4	6	32%	6%	46	-2.0	221/271/313	92	310	7	3	29%	6%	60	-1.0	226/275/321	96	305	9	1	28%	6%	62	-0.5
✕Exicardo Cayones 2013 · A	21	45	37→40	46→45	41	210/276/288	78	303	2	8	30%	6%	56	-1.3	220/296/296	76	324	3	10	30%	8%	67	-0.5	225/301/299	74	331	3	10	30%	8%	68	-0.3
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	47	-1.9	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Daniel Brito 2019 · A	21	45→48	39→40	46→50	41	216/259/296	80	281	6	10	25%	5%	50	-1.7	211/259/295	84	284	7	8	27%	5%	51	-1.7	210/259/296	86	279	7	5	27%	5%	48	-1.0
✕Tzu-Wei Lin 2015 · A	21	42→48	35→45	44→50	46	199/258/257	58	263	2	8	24%	8%	40	-2.4	213/258/284	71	264	4	13	20%	6%	46	-2.0	234/285/337	103	306	7	10	25%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Shane Mardirosian 2017 · A	21	40→39	36→40	46→45	39	194/238/261	67	262	3	9	26%	4%	33	-2.9	201/254/280	79	291	6	8	31%	6%	45	-2.1	196/265/280	83	301	7	7	35%	7%	50	-0.6
✕Elvis Perez 2017 · A	21	47	36→30	46→45	45	220/278/291	71	289	2	7	24%	7%	57	-1.2	202/250/281	79	286	5	5	29%	6%	43	-2.2	181/215/272	91	248	8	2	30%	4%	23	-1.1
✕Freizer Pedron 2007 · A	20	44	37→40	49→55	42	207/263/283	75	275	4	12	25%	6%	50	-1.8	229/295/302	73	307	3	16	24%	7%	69	-0.4	262/328/337	75	341	2	29	22%	6%	87	+0.3