Alberto Mendez — OGILVIE

Alberto MendezSS Lynchburg Hillcats

Age 21 L/R 5'9" / 146 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 157 proj PA

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .270 / .291

PA13

HR0

K%26

BB%7

ISO88

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL CLE Blue	—	167	133	34	4	2	2	32	44	2	5	1	256	407	361	768	105	368	26	19	358	129	+6	+1	—	—	+4	1.0
2023	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	150	112	24	2	0	5	31	36	4	6	4	214	401	366	767	152	257	24	21	353	125	+4	-0	—	—	+3	0.7
2024	19	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	167	143	26	9	0	5	21	47	3	2	1	182	299	350	649	168	231	28	13	297	87	-2	+0	—	—	+4	0.1
2025	20	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	167	146	36	5	2	1	18	33	2	3	2	247	337	329	666	82	310	20	11	306	93	-1	-0	—	—	+4	0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Blue	—	167	145	24	3	1	1	20	65	2	5	1	166	275	221	496	55	286	39	12	233	44	-11	+1	—	—	+4	-0.7
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	150	124	17	1	0	3	19	52	4	6	4	137	272	218	490	81	194	35	13	235	45	-10	-0	—	—	+3	-0.7
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	167	151	16	5	0	3	13	68	3	2	1	106	192	199	390	93	167	41	8	186	12	-17	+0	—	—	+4	-1.4
2025	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	167	152	28	4	1	1	12	47	2	3	2	184	253	243	496	59	257	28	7	224	38	-12	-0	—	—	+4	-0.9
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Blue	—	167	145	24	3	1	1	20	65	2	5	1	166	275	221	496	55	291	39	12	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Blue	—	167	133	34	4	2	2	32	44	2	5	1	256	407	361	768	105	368	26	19	358	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	150	124	17	1	0	3	19	52	4	6	4	137	272	218	490	81	194	35	13	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	—	150	112	24	2	0	5	31	36	4	6	4	214	401	366	767	152	257	24	21	353	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	167	151	16	5	0	3	13	68	3	2	1	106	192	199	390	93	163	41	8	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	—	167	143	26	9	0	5	21	47	3	2	1	182	299	350	649	168	231	28	13	297	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	167	152	28	4	1	1	12	47	2	3	2	184	253	243	496	59	257	28	7	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	167	146	36	5	2	1	18	33	2	3	2	247	337	329	666	82	310	20	11	306	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Blue	—	167	143	24	3	1	1	20	65	2	5	1	168	275	224	499	56	286	39	12	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	150	126	17	1	0	3	19	52	4	6	4	135	272	214	486	79	194	35	13	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	167	149	16	5	0	3	13	68	3	2	1	107	192	201	393	94	167	41	8	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	167	151	28	4	1	1	12	47	2	3	2	185	253	245	498	60	257	28	7	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	150	126	17	1	0	3	19	52	4	6	4	135	272	214	486	79	194	35	13	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	167	149	16	5	0	3	13	68	3	2	1	107	192	201	393	94	167	41	8	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	167	151	28	4	1	1	12	47	2	3	2	185	253	245	498	60	257	28	7	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	21	MLB MLE	CLE	0%	13	12	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	167	231	167	397		274	23	8	258	61	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CLE	34%	243	220	47	9	1	4	18	62	3	4	1	214	282	318	600	105	277	26	7	270	69	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	CLE	48%	345	312	68	13	2	6	26	87	4	5	2	218	287	330	617	112	279	25	8	278	74	-11	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	CLE	53%	416	376	83	16	2	8	32	103	5	7	2	221	291	338	628	117	280	25	8	283	78	-11	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	CLE	55%	455	412	91	17	3	9	35	112	5	7	2	221	290	342	632	121	281	25	8	286	79	-11	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	CLE	56%	479	434	97	18	3	10	37	118	5	8	2	224	292	348	640	124	281	25	8	286	80	-12	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	CLE	55%	488	440	98	18	3	10	39	121	6	8	3	223	295	345	640	123	280	25	8	286	80	-12	+0	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	CLE	59%	489	441	98	18	3	10	39	122	6	8	2	222	294	345	639	122	280	25	8	285	79	-12	+1	-1	+5	+11	0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	CLE	56%	483	436	96	18	3	9	39	121	5	7	2	220	292	337	629	117	279	25	8	284	78	-13	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	CLE	59%	475	429	92	17	2	9	38	120	5	7	2	214	286	326	612	112	279	25	8	281	76	-13	+1	-2	+5	+10	0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	CLE	34%	83	76	15	3	0	1	6	21	1	1	0	197	265	276	541	79	276	25	7	261	69	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	CLE	48%	167	150	33	6	1	3	13	42	2	3	1	220	291	333	624	113	278	25	8	269	74	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	CLE	53%	219	198	43	8	1	4	17	54	2	3	1	217	286	328	614	111	279	25	8	274	78	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	CLE	55%	249	225	49	9	1	5	19	61	3	4	1	218	287	333	621	116	280	24	8	276	79	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	CLE	56%	267	241	53	10	1	5	21	66	3	4	1	220	291	332	623	112	280	25	8	277	80	-6	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	CLE	55%	268	242	53	10	1	5	21	66	3	4	1	219	289	331	620	112	280	25	8	277	80	-6	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	CLE	59%	288	260	57	11	1	6	23	72	3	4	1	219	290	338	629	119	279	25	8	276	79	-7	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	CLE	56%	269	242	53	10	1	5	22	67	3	4	1	219	292	331	623	112	279	25	8	274	78	-7	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	CLE	59%	279	252	54	10	1	5	22	71	3	4	1	214	285	321	607	107	278	25	8	272	76	-8	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2089	1886	410	77	8	39	164	520	23	31	8	217	288	329	617	111	278	25	8	274	71	-55	+3	-2	+22	+45	1.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	127	24	2	12	51	162	7	10	2	216	286	325	612	109	277	25	8	274	71	-17	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4537	4084	857	157	24	83	368	1201	55	77	26	210	284	321	605	111	274	26	8	274	71	-103	+5	-4	+42	+84	2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	122	22	3	12	53	172	8	11	4	209	283	318	601	109	272	26	8	274	71	-17	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.4	2,247	42	35	220	287	336	+24	+18	2.6	2.6
/162	664	12	10	+7.1	+5.3	0.8	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alberto Mendez (OGILVIE)	21	40	25	45	40	204/270/291	87	274	2	2	26%	7%	61	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕David Martin 2023 · A	22	45	39→30	49→30	42	211/285/300	89	297	5	7	29%	6%	68	-1.0	221/302/288	67	277	4	4	20%	8%	72	-0.7	240/332/298	58	287	4	1	16%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Sergio Burruel 2012 · A	21	42	35→30	42→30	47	199/275/260	61	277	3	4	27%	8%	55	-1.9	215/268/277	62	300	3	6	27%	6%	55	-1.9	242/305/311	69	297	6	1	19%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Kier Meredith 2022 · A	22	42	36→30	51→60	45	197/268/264	67	279	4	12	29%	8%	53	-2.1	210/306/281	71	297	4	26	28%	9%	73	-0.6	226/338/275	49	304	3	35	23%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	41	36→40	45→50	44	192/261/262	70	277	4	9	30%	8%	50	-2.3	192/257/257	65	308	3	10	35%	8%	47	-2.5	156/232/188	31	269	0	14	38%	9%	20	-1.5
✕Livan Soto 2021 · A	21	42→52	35→40	46→50	47	199/257/254	55	248	3	8	20%	7%	47	-2.6	208/271/297	89	286	7	11	28%	7%	61	-1.5	234/307/314	80	309	6	8	24%	9%	77	-0.3
✕Elias Arias 2016 · A	22	45	36→30	46→55	46	211/274/274	63	275	4	13	24%	7%	57	-1.8	200/254/283	83	304	6	9	34%	6%	52	-2.2	161/210/245	83	254	7	9	38%	5%	23	-0.9
✕Oswal Leones 2022 · A	21	46	35→30	46→50	45	212/270/278	66	293	2	7	27%	7%	57	-1.8	194/258/265	71	304	4	9	34%	7%	49	-2.4	150/221/205	55	244	3	13	37%	7%	20	-1.9
✕Darrien Miller 2021 · A	20	42→41	36→45	47→45	43	198/272/267	70	271	3	8	27%	6%	56	-1.9	199/300/314	115	273	13	6	30%	9%	79	-0.2	175/316/278	103	239	9	4	27%	12%	76	-0.2
✕Alvaro Ramirez 2007 · A	21	46	35→40	47→55	40	216/274/276	60	291	2	12	25%	4%	58	-1.7	228/293/312	84	278	5	17	19%	6%	74	-0.6	243/311/332	89	284	5	22	15%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Bryant Aragon 2019 · A	21	44	40→30	50→40	40	210/263/304	94	299	7	6	31%	6%	60	-1.6	222/273/294	72	344	4	5	34%	6%	61	-1.5	228/276/281	53	356	3	2	35%	5%	57	-0.7
✕Daniel Brito 2019 · A	21	44→46	38→40	47→50	41	213/255/290	77	277	6	10	25%	5%	53	-2.1	214/260/299	85	285	7	8	26%	5%	57	-1.8	216/265/306	90	283	7	5	25%	5%	59	-1.0
✕Thomas Milone 2016 · A	21	44→45	36→45	50→55	40	207/255/274	67	284	3	14	28%	5%	49	-2.4	200/255/273	73	290	3	12	30%	6%	50	-2.3	237/293/354	117	331	7	17	29%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Aaron Shipman 2013 · A	21	40→37	35→30	44→50	48	187/266/245	59	273	2	9	30%	9%	49	-2.4	224/306/292	68	309	2	16	25%	10%	74	-0.6	243/332/303	60	328	1	21	23%	11%	81	-0.0
✕Joel Naughton 2008 · A	21	46	39→40	43→30	44	222/269/306	84	277	6	6	22%	6%	62	-1.4	229/272/318	89	285	7	3	21%	6%	66	-1.1	233/274/319	86	287	8	1	21%	5%	66	-0.5
✕Juan Centeno 2011 · A	21	43	37→45	50→40	44	204/258/272	67	266	4	9	24%	6%	51	-2.3	249/290/311	62	308	2	6	19%	5%	71	-0.8	268/305/322	54	324	1	3	17%	4%	76	-0.2
✕Cesar Berbesi 2021 · A	21	45	36→30	44→55	47	210/277/279	69	275	2	7	23%	7%	60	-1.6	199/294/287	88	339	5	13	38%	11%	70	-0.9	162/274/229	67	327	3	21	45%	13%	47	-0.7
✕Raynel Delgado 2021 · A	21	46→54	37→40	50→60	42	217/269/292	75	309	4	9	30%	6%	59	-1.6	197/261/284	87	286	7	14	32%	7%	55	-1.9	236/299/323	88	323	7	32	27%	7%	75	-0.4
✕Deivi Estrada 2022 · A	21	45	36→30	46→50	45	208/280/278	70	304	4	8	30%	8%	61	-1.5	185/243/254	69	327	4	8	41%	7%	41	-3.0	144/186/202	58	310	3	4	52%	4%	5	-1.1
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	53	-2.1	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	71	-0.8	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	70	-0.3
✕Anthony Seigler 2021 · A	22	42→39	37→45	49→55	47	200/278/275	74	283	5	6	29%	9%	60	-1.6	192/289/299	107	272	9	9	30%	11%	70	-0.8	219/309/345	126	268	10	25	21%	11%	85	+0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps