Adam Mazur

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AAA peak 0.9 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAASPD6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	MIX2 levels	24	18	96	2.81	2.43	22.8%	4.3%	—	K 18.0% · BB 4.9% · FIP 3.22
2024	23	MIX3 levels	27	27	127	5.46	4.07	21.1%	7.2%	1.3	K 18.4% · BB 7.1% · FIP 4.49
2025	24	MIX2 levels	28	25	137	4.46	4.65	20.2%	7.1%	0.4	K 17.8% · BB 6.6% · FIP 5.21
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIA	17	17	101	5.38	5.28	17.0%	9.8%	-0.4
2028PROJ64% MLB	27	MLBMIA	18	18	108	5.24	5.22	17.5%	9.6%	-0.4
2029PROJ76% MLB	28	MLBMIA	21	21	128	5.20	5.23	17.7%	9.6%	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo54

Whiff%25

xwOBA vs21

K%10

CompsNestor Molina (age 27) · Andrew Quezada (age 26) · Jared Mortensen (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.38

FIP5.28

K%17.0%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP101

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD2525

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p2521.8%

p1013.7%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

SL (41%)

SI (16%)

CU (11%)

CH-1.7 (8%)

FB-3.3 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	96	394	90	17	5	75%	4.0	18.0%	4.9%	13.2%	1.9%	2.81	3.22	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	18	96	394	90	17	5	75%	4.0	22.8%	4.3%	18.5%	1.3%	2.81	2.43	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	127	541	114	39	18	100%	4.7	18.4%	7.1%	11.3%	3.7%	5.46	4.49	+0.6
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	127	541	114	39	18	100%	4.7	18.4%	7.1%	11.3%	3.7%	5.46	4.49	+0.6
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	127	541	114	39	18	100%	4.7	21.1%	7.2%	13.9%	3.3%	5.46	4.07	+1.3
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	137	589	119	42	25	89%	4.9	17.8%	6.6%	11.2%	5.1%	4.46	5.21	-0.5
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	137	589	119	42	25	89%	4.9	17.8%	6.6%	11.2%	5.1%	4.46	5.21	-0.5
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	137	589	119	42	25	89%	4.9	20.2%	7.1%	13.1%	4.2%	4.46	4.65	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	14	64	297	41	33	10	100%	4.5	13.8%	11.1%	2.7%	3.4%	6.22	5.41	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIA	17	17	101	426	73	42	16	100%	5.9	17.0%	9.8%	7.3%	3.7%	5.38	5.28	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIA	28	28	169	713	125	69	26	100%	6.0	17.5%	9.6%	7.9%	3.6%	5.24	5.22	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIA	28	28	169	713	126	69	26	100%	6.0	17.7%	9.6%	8.1%	3.7%	5.20	5.23	-0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIA	27	27	161	681	118	66	26	100%	6.0	17.3%	9.8%	7.6%	3.8%	5.27	5.34	-0.8
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIA	25	25	152	640	107	64	26	100%	6.1	16.8%	10.0%	6.8%	4.0%	5.41	5.52	-1.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	108	456	80	44	17	100%	6.0	17.5%	9.6%	7.9%	3.6%	5.24	5.22	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	128	540	96	52	20	100%	6.1	17.7%	9.6%	8.1%	3.7%	5.20	5.23	-0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	132	557	97	54	21	100%	6.0	17.3%	9.8%	7.6%	3.8%	5.27	5.34	-0.7
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	130	549	92	55	22	100%	5.9	16.8%	10.0%	6.8%	4.0%	5.41	5.52	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		97	97	563	2403	406	239	90	100%	5.8	16.9%	9.9%	7.0%	3.7%	5.39	4.98	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	854	144	85	32	100%	5.8	16.9%	9.9%	7.0%	3.7%	5.39	4.98	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		79	70	360	1524	276	96	57	89%	4.6	18.1%	6.3%	11.8%	3.8%	4.37	4.44	-3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	39	200	846	153	54	32	89%	4.6	18.1%	6.3%	11.8%	3.8%	4.37	4.44	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Mazur (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	17.0%	9.8%	3.7%	—	5.26	17.5%	7.9%	499	-0.02	—	—	—
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	85
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	81
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	81
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	81
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	80
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	80
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	79
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	79
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	78
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	78
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP	4.61	16.0%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.54	21.7%	13.5%	105	-1.07	2.42	444	78
Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	5.72	11.7%	-3.6%	23	+0.30	4.31	315	78
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	77
Chris Stratton R 2017 · 4.19 FIP	26	SP	4.19	18.7%	8.4%	2.9%	.328	4.40	20.1%	11.2%	275	+0.21	3.17	991	77
Asher Wojciechowski R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	26	SP	4.30	15.7%	8.5%	2.6%	.323	4.61	20.4%	12.2%	287	+0.31	3.15	678	77
Mike Vasil R 2024 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP	5.03	15.4%	7.7%	4.1%	.310	3.89	19.4%	8.3%	101	-1.14	3.63	429	77
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	77
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	77
Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	26	SP	4.65	15.0%	8.9%	3.1%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	278	77
Kyle Haynes R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	15.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	240	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	118	17.0%	9.9%	1.44	5.36
Don Black ('43-'48, 0 WAR*)	4.0	133	17.4%*	10.4%*	1.28*	5.32*
Bill Posedel ('38-'46, 1 WAR*)	3.4	136	16.9%*	8.8%*	1.33*	5.19*
Armando Galarraga ('12)	2.7	108	14.6%	9.6%	1.56	4.78
Nate Robertson ('10)	5.8	144	15.3%	8.3%	1.25	5.01
Steve Parris ('03)	3.8	94	14.4%	8.7%	1.36	4.75
Milt Watson ('16-'19, -1 WAR*)	2.1	106	13.4%*	9.8%*	1.37*	5.39*