Kevin Valdez

P South Bend Cubs

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX2 levels	17	11	48	3.21	4.23	22.5%	17.5%	—	K 16.6% · BB 17.9% · FIP 4.87
2025	23	MIX2 levels	21	14	91	3.84	3.93	17.7%	13.8%	—	K 13.3% · BB 16.1% · FIP 4.71
2026	24	MIX2 levels	24	18	98	3.96	4.19	23.6%	8.5%	—	K 18.5% · BB 9.6% · FIP 5.21
2027PROJ	25	MLBCHC	12	12	70	5.81	5.81	15.4%	14.3%	-0.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCHC	6	6	38	5.62	5.60	16.7%	13.6%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCHC	9	9	54	5.53	5.54	17.0%	13.2%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control30Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsJacob Meador (age 23) · Justin Miller (age 24) · Ryan Jensen (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.81

FIP5.81

K%15.4%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%1.1%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	12	11	35	153	51	22	0	92%	2.9	22.7%	18.0%	4.7%	0.0%	3.12	3.46	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	12	11	35	153	51	22	0	92%	2.9	33.3%	14.4%	19.0%	0.0%	3.12	2.06	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	11	48	200	45	35	3	65%	2.8	16.6%	17.9%	-1.3%	1.6%	3.21	4.87	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	11	48	200	45	35	3	65%	2.8	22.5%	17.5%	5.0%	1.5%	3.21	4.23	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	14	91	406	72	56	4	67%	4.3	13.3%	16.1%	-2.8%	1.2%	3.84	4.71	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	14	91	406	72	56	4	67%	4.3	13.3%	16.1%	-2.8%	1.2%	3.84	4.71	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	14	91	406	72	56	4	67%	4.3	17.7%	13.8%	3.9%	1.0%	3.84	3.93	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	98	411	97	35	15	75%	4.1	18.5%	9.6%	8.9%	4.5%	3.96	5.21	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	98	411	97	35	15	75%	4.1	18.5%	9.6%	8.9%	4.5%	3.96	5.21	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	18	98	411	97	35	15	75%	4.1	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	3.6%	3.96	4.19	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CHC	12	12	70	296	46	42	10	100%	5.8	15.4%	14.3%	1.1%	3.3%	5.81	5.81	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	88	371	62	51	12	100%	5.9	16.7%	13.6%	3.0%	3.3%	5.62	5.60	-0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	87	366	62	48	12	100%	6.2	17.0%	13.2%	3.8%	3.3%	5.53	5.54	-0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	84	355	61	47	12	100%	6.0	17.2%	13.1%	4.0%	3.4%	5.52	5.56	-0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	80	339	58	45	12	100%	6.2	17.0%	13.2%	3.8%	3.5%	5.59	5.65	-0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	75	318	60	40	12	100%	5.8	18.7%	12.7%	6.0%	3.7%	5.57	5.56	-0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	38	160	27	22	5	100%	6.3	16.7%	13.6%	3.0%	3.3%	5.62	5.60	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	9	9	54	228	39	30	8	100%	6.0	17.0%	13.2%	3.8%	3.3%	5.53	5.54	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	63	266	46	35	9	100%	6.3	17.2%	13.1%	4.0%	3.4%	5.52	5.56	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	65	274	47	36	10	100%	5.9	17.0%	13.2%	3.8%	3.5%	5.59	5.65	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	65	274	51	35	10	100%	5.9	18.7%	12.7%	6.0%	3.7%	5.57	5.56	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	48	285	1205	210	158	42	100%	5.9	17.4%	13.1%	4.2%	3.5%	5.56	5.20	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	147	111	29	100%	6.0	17.4%	13.1%	4.2%	3.5%	5.56	5.20	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		74	54	271	1170	198	168	27	73%	3.7	16.9%	14.4%	2.5%	2.3%	3.68	4.75	-3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	40	200	862	146	124	20	73%	3.7	16.9%	14.4%	2.5%	2.3%	3.68	4.75	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.81	15.4%	14.3%	3.3%	—	5.57	16.9%	3.6%	258	-0.24	—	—	—
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	87
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	85
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	85
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	84
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	83
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	80
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	80
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	80
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	80
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	80
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	80
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	79
Joe Nathan R 2000 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP-	5.19	14.3%	13.8%	2.8%	.262	3.30	26.3%	16.8%	79	-1.89	1.25	929	78
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	78
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	78
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	78
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	78
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	78
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	77
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	81	17.0%	13.4%	1.32	5.60
Seth McClung ('09)	2.2	86	16.2%	13.1%	1.28	5.46
Bobby Jones ('04)	1.6	81	15.1%	12.9%	1.25	5.77
Paul Giel ('54-'61, -4 WAR*)	1.2	60	20.2%*	12.9%*	1.20*	5.80*
Ray Harrell ('35-'45, -6 WAR*)	1.6	66	19.3%*	12.3%*	1.40*	6.15*
Hal Griggs ('56-'59, -4 WAR*)	1.7	116	16.8%*	11.9%*	1.33*	5.92*
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28