Ali Ascanio prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Ali Ascanio P DSL Red Sox Blue

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%22.8%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	17	2	32	150	32	25	1	12%	1.9	14.5%	20.8%	-6.3%	1.0%	3.69	5.09	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Blue	17	2	32	150	32	25	1	12%	1.9	21.3%	16.7%	4.7%	0.7%	3.69	3.86	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	15	0	24	102	22	19	1	0%	1.6	14.7%	23.3%	-8.6%	1.5%	4.18	5.63	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	15	0	24	102	22	19	1	0%	1.6	14.7%	23.3%	-8.6%	1.5%	4.18	5.63	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	15	0	24	102	22	19	1	0%	1.6	21.6%	18.6%	2.9%	1.0%	4.18	4.20	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	12.9%	9.9%	3.0%	4.83	4.83	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BOS	19	0	20	84	20	10	2	0%	1.1	23.6%	11.5%	12.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.56	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	BOS	10	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	11.5%	12.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.1	23.6%	11.5%	12.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.18	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	102	20	0%	1.1	23.6%	11.5%	12.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		32	2	55	252	37	55	3	6%	1.7	14.6%	21.8%	-7.3%	1.2%	3.90	5.31	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	7	200	911	133	199	11	6%	1.7	14.6%	21.8%	-7.3%	1.2%	3.90	5.31	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ali Ascanio (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	22.8%	12.9%	3.0%	—	4.56	23.6%	12.1%	20	-0.27	—	—	—
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	90
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	89
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	87
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	87
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	87
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	87
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	86
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	86
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	86
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	86
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	85
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	85
Cam Bedrosian R 2014 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	21.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.350	2.72	26.8%	17.8%	154	-1.22	1.79	363	85
Alex Pham R 2022 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	26.6%	14.5%	2.8%	.364	3.99	23.0%	12.4%	272	-0.24	3.73	352	84
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	84
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	84
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	84