Todd Kniebbe

P Frederick Keys

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 245 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ABAL	4	7	2.70	2.20	42.3%	3.8%	—	K 42.3% · BB 3.8% · FIP 2.13
2026	22	MIX2 levels	33	45	2.18	2.02	33.1%	10.3%	—	K 25.1% · BB 11.9% · FIP 2.89
2027PROJ	23	MLBBAL	26	27	4.38	4.38	24.3%	11.4%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBBAL	17	18	4.28	4.22	24.7%	10.4%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsPeyton Williams (age 23) · Chris Perez (age 23) · Justin Yeager (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.38

FIP4.38

K%24.3%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%12.9%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	0	7	26	11	1	1	0%	1.7	42.3%	3.8%	38.5%	3.8%	2.70	2.13	—
2025	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	0	7	26	11	1	1	0%	1.7	42.3%	3.8%	38.5%	3.8%	2.70	2.13	—
2025	21	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	4	0	7	26	11	1	1	0%	1.7	42.3%	3.8%	38.5%	3.8%	2.70	2.20	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	45	175	58	18	1	0%	1.4	25.1%	11.9%	13.1%	0.7%	2.18	2.89	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	45	175	58	18	1	0%	1.4	25.1%	11.9%	13.1%	0.7%	2.18	2.89	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	45	175	58	18	1	0%	1.4	33.1%	10.3%	22.9%	0.6%	2.18	2.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	BAL	26	0	27	114	28	13	3	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.4%	12.9%	2.8%	4.38	4.38	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BAL	40	0	42	176	44	18	5	0%	1.0	24.7%	10.4%	14.3%	2.7%	4.28	4.22	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	BAL	17	0	18	76	19	8	2	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.4%	14.3%	2.7%	4.28	4.22	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	76	19	8	2	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.4%	14.3%	2.7%	4.28	3.84	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	211	89	22	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.4%	14.3%	2.7%	4.28	3.84	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		37	0	52	201	55	22	2	0%	1.4	27.3%	10.9%	16.4%	1.1%	2.25	2.79	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	0	200	773	211	84	9	0%	1.4	27.3%	10.9%	16.4%	1.1%	2.25	2.79	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Todd Kniebbe (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	24.3%	11.4%	2.8%	—	4.22	24.7%	14.3%	42	-0.16	—	—	—
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	92
Chris Perez R 2008 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	23.7%	12.4%	2.8%	.269	3.71	22.5%	12.6%	180	-0.51	3.18	379	91
Justin Yeager R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	26.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.281	3.96	25.4%	12.6%	103	+0.37	3.32	265	91
Donovan Benoit R 2022 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	91
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	90
Shawn Tolleson R 2012 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	24.4%	11.9%	2.4%	.265	3.47	24.4%	18.5%	144	-0.39	3.05	218	90
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	90
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	90
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	90
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.50	21.7%	10.0%	142	+0.88	3.62	311	90
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.43	249	89
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.63	21.7%	10.9%	166	-0.17	3.17	219	88
Jacob Dorris R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	26.9%	12.4%	3.2%	.295	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	88	+0.42	4.16	130	88
Cre Finfrock R 2019 · 4.63 FIP	23	SU	4.63	23.0%	11.7%	3.6%	.278	6.31	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.68	4.27	103	88
Taylor Floyd R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	23	SU	3.48	27.7%	12.1%	2.2%	.291	4.30	19.4%	6.5%	183	+0.82	3.48	359	88
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	87
Aaron Crow R 2011 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	24.4%	10.9%	3.2%	.287	4.16	20.1%	11.4%	172	-0.04	2.88	234	87
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	87
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	87
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	87

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	24.5%	10.8%	1.06	4.32
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*