Braylin TaveraOF Frederick Keys
Age 21 R/R 6'3" / 175 lbs A+ HR +8%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.1 · 2031
wRC+†42
AVG/OBP/SLG.173 / .254 / .257
PA320
HR5
SB14
K%38
BB%9
MLB%0%
BAT: -20.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-21BATRUN: +1.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.9 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +9.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+9REPTotal WAR: -1.30-1.3WAR
Scouting · nowfuture
HIT
3030
PWR
3030
SPD
5050
EYE
5050
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2031

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Arb-2$0.9M
2031Arb-3$0.9M+0.1$0.5M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Ext / FA-deal$0.9M
2033Ext / FA-deal$0.2M
2034Ext / FA-deal$0.4M
2035Ext / FA-deal$0.6M
Totals $3M $-4M -$7M
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202217 ROKDSL BAL Black 185159 25402 21725 74 .157.276.220.496 .063.271 3911 .236 39 -13 -0 +0 -1 +5 -0.9
202318 ROKFCL Orioles 133117 21403 12352 135 .179.267.291.558 .111.222 269 .247 47 -8 +1 +0 -1 +4 -0.4
202419 ADelmarva Shorebirds 355318 45321 311204 2713 .142.227.173.400 .031.221 349 .186 1 -40 +0 +0 -2 +10 -3.2
202520 ADelmarva Shorebirds 443394 661126 361938 189 .168.251.251.502 .084.302 448 .229 33 -33 +0 +0 -3 +13 -2.4
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
202621 A+Frederick Keys 5449 11101 3291 51 .224.283.306.589 .082.526 546 .232 36 -4 +1 +0 -0 +2 -0.2
ROS21 MLBBAL 266238 43614 221064 93 .181.261.265.526 .084.299 408 .242 44 -17 +1 +0 -2 +8 -1.1
TOT21 MLBBAL 320287 54715 251355 144 .188.265.272.537 .084.331 428 .241 42 -21 +1 +0 -2 +9 -1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
202722 MLB 11%BAL 513456 9113210 451627 176 .200.281.303.584 .103.280 329 .267 63 -22 +1 +0 -3 +15 -0.9
202823 MLB 28%BAL 558494 10115212 511708 176 .204.289.316.605 .111.281 309 .277 70 -19 +1 +0 -3 +16 -0.5
202924 MLB 45%BAL 587519 10816214 551748 176 .208.294.328.621 .119.283 309 .283 75 -17 +1 +0 -4 +17 -0.2
203025 MLB 60%BAL 603532 11217314 581778 165 .211.298.333.630 .122.284 2910 .288 78 -15 +1 +0 -4 +17 -0.0
203126 MLB 78%BAL 611538 11417315 601798 155 .212.300.338.639 .126.284 2910 .289 80 -14 +1 +0 -4 +17 0.1
203227 MLBBAL 611538 11417315 601808 145 .212.300.338.639 .126.284 2910 .289 80 -14 +1 +0 -4 +17 0.0
203328 MLBBAL 606533 11217215 601808 134 .210.300.334.633 .124.284 3010 .288 79 -15 +1 -1 -4 +17 -0.1
203429 MLBBAL 596523 10816214 601788 113 .207.298.325.623 .119.283 3010 .286 77 -15 +1 -1 -4 +17 -0.3
203530 MLBBAL 586514 10516213 591778 103 .204.296.319.615 .115.281 3010 .283 75 -17 +1 -2 -4 +17 -0.5
203631 MLBBAL 571502 10215213 571757 82 .203.293.319.612 .116.279 3110 .279 72 -18 +1 -3 -3 +16 -0.8
203732 MLBBAL 553486 9714212 551727 62 .200.290.311.601 .111.278 3110 .275 68 -20 +0 -4 -3 +16 -1.1
203833 MLBBAL 523459 9013210 521677 51 .196.288.298.586 .102.276 3210 .269 64 -21 +1 -4 -3 +15 -1.3
203934 MLBBAL 476420 801129 471566 50 .190.281.290.572 .100.274 3310 .263 60 -22 +1 -5 -3 +13 -1.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career 87767740 153422534182 8412773121 22882 .198.287.307.593 .108.280 3210 .271 66 -338 +13 -20 -53 +249 -15.2
/ 162G 650573 11417313 622059 176 .199.287.307.594 .108.282 3210 .271 66 -25 +1 -1 -4 +18 -1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202217 ROKDSL BAL Black 185144 35502 36475 74 .243.411.319.730 .076.347 2519 .350 126 +5 -0 +5 1.1
202318 ROKFCL Orioles 133107 28504 22232 135 .262.397.421.818 .159.293 1717 .367 139 +6 +1 +4 1.0
202419 ADelmarva Shorebirds 355300 52521 49904 2713 .173.297.213.511 .040.242 2514 .250 49 -20 +0 +10 -1.0
202520 ADelmarva Shorebirds 443372 841437 581358 189 .226.342.336.678 .110.329 3013 .312 97 -2 +0 +13 1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Braylin Tavera (OGILVIE) 21 30 30 50 50 .173/.254/.257 .084.278 59 38% 9% 41 -1.2
Rudy van Heydoorn
2010 · A
21 33 41→45 41→50 41 .168/.252/.259 .091.262 98 37% 8% 41 -2.3 .197/.275/.307 .110.307 115 36% 9% 63 -0.9 .204/.303/.338.134.29214232%11%83+0.2
Juan Beltre
2007 · A
21 37 34→30 47→60 35 .176/.225/.227 .051.271 29 34% 4% 18 -3.9 .208/.272/.268 .060.294 319 28% 6% 50 -1.7 .243/.319/.291.049.31423221%7%73-0.0
Markus Brisker
2012 · A
21 39→38 38→40 51→55 43 .185/.263/.265 .081.290 618 36% 8% 46 -2.0 .191/.266/.277 .086.292 619 34% 8% 50 -1.7 .147/.226/.206.060.22533233%7%13-1.3
Guillermo Pimentel
2010 · A
20 42 38→40 49→55 44 .200/.281/.272 .073.296 616 32% 8% 56 -1.3 .200/.259/.281 .081.332 79 39% 6% 47 -1.9 .171/.216/.243.071.2958243%4%17-1.1
Frankeny Fernandez
2017 · A
20 37 38→40 54→60 42 .177/.252/.256 .078.282 519 36% 8% 39 -2.5 .189/.255/.265 .076.277 511 31% 7% 42 -2.3 .172/.238/.215.043.2393627%7%20-1.1
Jose Cordoba
2023 · A
20 37 40 44→55 39 .185/.250/.273 .088.268 99 33% 6% 43 -2.2 .200/.257/.289 .089.277 611 28% 6% 49 -1.8 .197/.256/.288.091.26541526%6%45-0.8
Nelson Medina
2022 · A
21 39 39→45 53→50 46 .186/.268/.273 .087.271 614 31% 9% 50 -1.7 .188/.261/.284 .096.328 713 41% 8% 50 -1.7 .138/.200/.215.077.28161650%7%4-1.7
Christian Cairo
2022 · A
21 39→47 40 52→60 45 .186/.279/.272 .086.285 715 34% 9% 56 -1.3 .195/.294/.278 .083.290 617 31% 11% 63 -0.8 .215/.301/.289.073.31043529%9%66-0.3
Jose Meza
2023 · A
20 41→35 41→45 47→50 40 .199/.265/.295 .096.286 910 32% 6% 55 -1.4 .204/.294/.305 .101.301 98 32% 10% 70 -0.3 .186/.292/.283.097.27791033%11%63-0.5
Ismael Alcantara
2019 · A
20 39→30 38→45 51→50 41 .188/.258/.268 .080.284 513 34% 7% 44 -2.1 .208/.274/.312 .104.324 815 36% 7% 62 -0.9 .195/.257/.318.122.287131635%6%53-0.7
Payton Henry
2018 · A
21 40→31 41→45 46→30 38 .191/.255/.294 .102.304 84 38% 7% 50 -1.7 .187/.253/.289 .102.316 102 41% 6% 48 -1.9 .246/.293/.382.135.32219129%4%83+0.2
Jase Bowen
2022 · A
21 37→40 42→45 53→55 35 .184/.244/.282 .097.281 1012 37% 5% 43 -2.2 .196/.251/.317 .121.287 1416 35% 5% 54 -1.4 .198/.249/.325.127.276152233%5%52-1.2
Jorge Alcantara
2013 · A
21 43 41→45 50 43 .204/.273/.304 .100.299 811 32% 8% 59 -1.1 .191/.262/.285 .094.292 614 34% 8% 50 -1.7 .147/.226/.244.097.22162534%8%24-0.9
Didimo Bracho
2017 · A
20 36 37→30 49→60 37 .177/.233/.245 .068.270 516 35% 5% 27 -3.3 .192/.240/.296 .104.291 86 35% 5% 43 -2.2 .181/.230/.321.140.25111332%5%41-0.6
Ignacio Valdez
2016 · A
21 35 39→45 48→50 39 .170/.238/.257 .086.268 68 36% 7% 33 -2.9 .171/.234/.292 .121.284 144 42% 7% 41 -2.3 .138/.187/.269.132.20117041%5%11-1.1
Willy Diaz
2015 · A
21 37 36→40 45→40 46 .174/.265/.241 .067.259 45 32% 9% 42 -2.3 .187/.265/.267 .080.304 54 37% 8% 47 -1.9 .184/.258/.270.086.3085239%8%42-0.8
Ameilis Carvajal
2009 · A
20 40 39→40 50 47 .189/.277/.272 .083.292 612 34% 10% 54 -1.4 .193/.265/.266 .073.318 410 37% 8% 46 -2.0 .140/.204/.175.034.2670844%7%-3-1.2
Alexander Campos
2021 · A
21 44 37→40 50→45 38 .194/.259/.269 .076.338 49 41% 7% 45 -2.1 .214/.298/.303 .089.299 75 28% 9% 71 -0.3 .211/.309/.291.080.2908427%11%71-0.1
Misael Urbina
2023 · A
21 38→30 41→45 49→50 45 .187/.256/.291 .104.256 812 29% 8% 50 -1.8 .177/.255/.265 .088.259 69 31% 9% 43 -2.2 .164/.251/.245.081.2375830%9%33-1.7
Jose Paniagua
2015 · A
21 38 40→50 49→55 41 .186/.244/.281 .095.265 711 31% 7% 41 -2.3 .197/.248/.296 .099.285 88 32% 6% 46 -2.0 .179/.215/.276.097.25610233%3%23-1.0