Luke Hill

3B Lake County Captains

Age 23 R/R 5'11" / 193 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

Scout OFP45ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ALynchburg Hil…	62	.347/.467/.510	1	7	122	—	.308/.400/.462
2026	22	AACLE	150	.235/.322/.379	3	7	70	—	.213/.282/.324
2026	22	A+CLE	164	.274/.441/.597	10	6	131	—	.239/.366/.507
2027PROJ0% MLB	23	MLBCLE	2	.233/.322/.397	0	0	104	0.0
2028PROJ42% MLB	24	MLBCLE	163	.235/.324/.401	5	3	105	0.5
2029PROJ62% MLB	25	MLBCLE	265	.236/.324/.403	8	5	106	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Speed63

K%60

Chase%60

Whiff%56

ISO47

BB%47

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 18, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 69%

CompsConnor Norby (age 23) · James Darnell (age 23) · Logan O'Hoppe (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†104

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .322 / .397

PA2

HR0

K%50

BB%10

BABIP293

ISO168

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$39M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE66

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.3M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$5M		$11M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	49	17	3	1	1	11	11	0	7	4	347	467	510	977	163	421	18	18	421	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	150	132	31	10	0	3	15	34	2	7	2	235	322	379	701	144	292	23	10	315	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	164	124	34	8	1	10	34	31	3	6	2	274	441	597	1.038	323	282	19	21	440	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	34	29	9	2	0	1	4	5	1	2	0	310	412	483	895	172	348	15	12	400	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	52	16	3	1	1	8	15	0	7	4	308	400	462	862	154	368	24	13	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	150	136	29	9	0	2	11	42	2	7	2	213	282	324	605	110	283	28	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	164	134	32	7	1	9	24	39	3	6	2	239	366	507	874	269	248	24	15	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	52	16	3	1	1	8	15	0	7	4	308	400	462	862	154	405	24	13	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	49	17	3	1	1	11	11	0	7	4	347	467	510	977	163	421	18	18	421	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	348	299	66	17	1	12	39	90	6	15	4	221	323	405	727	184	270	26	11	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	348	285	74	20	1	14	53	70	6	15	4	260	387	484	871	225	294	20	15	383	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	54	16	3	1	1	8	15	0	7	4	296	400	444	844	148	368	24	13	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	348	300	66	17	1	12	39	90	6	15	4	220	323	403	726	183	265	26	11	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	62	54	16	3	1	1	8	15	0	7	4	296	400	444	844	148	368	24	13	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	348	300	66	17	1	12	39	90	6	15	4	220	323	403	726	183	265	26	11	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	0%	424	372	86	17	2	13	44	111	5	8	2	233	322	398	720	165	292	26	10	322	104	+2	+1	-1	+2	+9	1.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	0%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	233	322	397	719	164	293	50	0	321	104	+0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	42%	385	338	79	16	2	12	40	100	4	7	2	235	324	402	726	167	293	26	10	324	105	+2	+1	-1	+1	+8	1.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	62%	427	375	88	17	2	14	44	109	5	7	2	236	324	404	728	168	293	26	10	325	106	+3	+1	-1	+2	+9	1.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	71%	453	399	95	19	2	15	46	115	5	7	2	236	324	404	728	167	293	25	10	324	106	+3	+1	-1	+2	+10	1.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	74%	461	406	96	19	2	15	47	117	5	7	2	236	323	401	724	166	292	25	10	323	105	+3	+1	-1	+2	+10	1.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	75%	463	408	95	19	2	14	47	118	5	7	2	234	320	397	717	162	291	25	10	320	103	+2	+1	-2	+2	+10	1.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	74%	456	402	93	18	2	14	46	118	5	6	2	232	317	390	707	158	289	26	10	316	100	+0	+0	-3	+2	+10	1.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	73%	448	395	91	18	2	13	45	117	5	5	3	228	314	382	695	153	287	26	10	311	97	-2	-0	-3	+2	+10	0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	79%	435	385	87	17	2	12	43	115	4	4	4	224	309	371	680	147	284	26	10	305	93	-4	-1	-4	+2	+9	0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	CLE	83%	418	370	80	15	1	11	41	113	4	3	9	218	302	358	660	140	279	27	10	297	87	-6	-3	-5	+1	+9	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	42%	163	143	34	7	1	5	17	42	2	3	1	235	324	401	725	166	293	26	10	323	105	+1	+0	-0	+1	+4	0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	62%	265	233	54	11	1	8	27	68	3	5	1	236	324	403	727	167	293	26	10	324	106	+2	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	71%	323	283	66	13	1	10	33	82	4	5	2	236	324	403	727	166	293	25	10	324	106	+2	+0	-1	+1	+7	1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	74%	339	297	70	14	1	11	35	86	4	5	2	236	323	400	723	164	292	25	10	323	105	+2	+0	-1	+1	+7	1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	75%	346	304	71	14	1	11	35	88	4	5	2	235	321	396	716	161	291	25	10	320	103	+1	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	74%	335	295	68	14	1	10	34	86	3	4	2	232	318	389	707	157	290	26	10	316	100	+0	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	73%	326	288	66	13	1	10	32	85	3	4	2	229	314	381	695	152	288	26	10	311	97	-1	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	79%	343	303	68	13	1	10	34	91	3	3	3	224	309	371	680	146	284	27	10	305	93	-3	-1	-3	+1	+7	0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	CLE	83%	347	307	67	13	1	9	34	94	3	3	8	219	303	358	660	139	280	27	10	297	87	-5	-3	-4	+1	+8	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2787	2453	564	112	9	84	281	722	29	37	23	230	316	386	702	156	289	26	10	315	101	-1	-2	-15	+10	+60	5.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	572	132	26	2	20	66	168	7	9	5	231	318	388	706	157	289	26	10	315	101	-0	-0	-4	+2	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4676	4109	952	191	21	143	479	1211	52	81	38	232	320	393	712	161	291	26	10	317	101	+2	-0	-21	+15	+92	9.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	571	133	27	3	20	67	168	7	11	5	233	321	396	717	163	293	26	10	317	101	+0	-0	-3	+2	+14	1.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeimer Candelariolast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,576 PA	5.4	3,576	110	19	237	316	412	+8	-5	12.7	13.0
/162	664	20	4	+1.6	-0.9	2.4	pk7: 13
#2Daryl Spencer'52-'63 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,206 PA	6.3	4,206	105	13	236*	321*	384*	+30	-4	11.2	11.7
/162	664	17	2	+4.8	-0.6	1.8	pk7: 12
#3Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	5.3	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
/162	664	13	8	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#4Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
#5Charlie Neal'56-'63 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	87	48	251*	324*	402*	+18	-12	8.0	8.4
/162	664	15	8	+3.2	-2.1	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.2	2,789	84	37	232	314	390	+10	-12	8.4	8.0
/162	664	20	9	+2.4	-2.9	2.0	pk7: 8
#6Johnny Vergez'31-'36 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,537 PA	3.8	2,537	52	22	234*	301*	404*	+9	-12	4.2	4.2
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	-3.2	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Hill (OGILVIE)	23	55	50	45	66	231/320/394	163	292	10	6	26%	10%	104	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Connor Norby 2023 · AAA	23	46→51	52→55	49→50	45	236/302/402	166	297	20	12	27%	7%	98	+1.2	247/306/406	159	329	18	11	29%	7%	100	+1.3	247/320/404	157	334	17	14	30%	8%	104	+1.4
●James Darnell 2010 · A	23	51→52	51→55	45→40	54	255/336/426	171	306	18	6	22%	10%	116	+2.5	248/318/410	162	289	18	4	20%	9%	105	+1.7	244/314/410	165	278	20	2	20%	8%	103	+1.0
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	46→48	53→55	45	50	238/315/406	168	271	22	7	21%	8%	104	+1.6	238/301/417	179	290	25	5	26%	7%	101	+1.4	230/285/405	175	287	26	2	29%	6%	94	+0.6
●Luis Urías 2020 · MLB	23	51→61	47→55	47→45	50	248/327/387	140	308	14	6	23%	9%	104	+1.6	242/326/400	158	294	18	6	23%	9%	107	+1.8	239/331/399	160	283	19	4	21%	10%	109	+1.3
●Alec Bohm 2020 · AA	23	49→56	49→50	46→45	49	245/302/395	150	277	16	6	18%	7%	96	+1.0	261/316/385	124	320	12	6	21%	7%	99	+1.2	273/325/420	147	304	15	4	15%	6%	111	+2.0
✕Vinnie Catricala 2012 · AA	23	53→58	51→55	49→45	44	265/321/434	169	317	18	9	22%	6%	112	+2.2	220/271/334	114	275	12	7	24%	5%	70	-0.8	195/244/283	87	247	9	4	24%	5%	46	-2.1
●Miguel Vargas 2023 · MLB	23	51→54	50→55	51→50	49	256/318/416	160	295	17	13	20%	8%	107	+1.8	227/316/385	158	269	16	11	21%	10%	99	+1.3	226/328/409	183	251	21	13	19%	12%	110	+2.0
●Andy Pages 2024 · AA	23	42→52	54→60	47→50	47	218/307/400	182	287	21	9	30%	9%	100	+1.3	260/319/438	178	314	21	10	23%	7%	112	+2.2	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Derek Norris 2012 · AA	23	39→49	53→55	47→50	53	204/313/377	173	277	21	10	32%	12%	97	+1.1	230/312/390	160	287	19	10	25%	10%	99	+1.3	257/333/410	152	314	16	5	22%	9%	112	+1.6
●Chase Meidroth 2023 · A	22	49→58	52→40	48→50	51	248/325/415	167	283	19	12	20%	8%	109	+2.0	254/348/353	99	314	9	12	20%	11%	104	+1.6	263/352/365	101	313	10	11	17%	11%	107	+1.8
●Elijah Dukes 2008 · MLB	24	48→54	53→55	48→50	55	248/331/424	176	279	20	12	19%	10%	114	+2.3	245/342/416	171	293	17	14	21%	12%	116	+2.5	247/348/417	170	297	16	14	21%	12%	118	+2.0
●Sean Rodríguez 2008 · AA	23	46→51	50→60	47→50	44	231/303/389	157	299	17	12	28%	7%	96	+1.0	241/313/435	194	302	23	11	27%	7%	110	+2.1	244/318/452	208	301	26	12	27%	7%	113	+1.7
✕Tyler Gentry 2023 · AA	24	52→56	52→50	46→50	47	257/337/422	165	343	20	9	30%	9%	116	+2.5	224/299/357	133	313	14	10	31%	8%	86	+0.3	204/280/327	124	289	12	10	32%	8%	70	-0.7
●Justyn-Henry Malloy 2023 · AAA	23	50→60	47→50	48→45	50	241/323/375	135	330	15	6	30%	10%	99	+1.3	239/338/387	148	334	17	6	30%	12%	108	+1.9	239/348/390	150	332	17	5	30%	13%	110	+1.8
●Alejandro Kirk 2022 · MLB	23	50→57	51→50	47→40	55	252/328/416	163	272	18	4	15%	9%	111	+2.1	262/340/389	127	281	14	2	12%	10%	109	+2.0	260/341/374	114	279	12	0	11%	10%	106	+1.3
●Jonathan India 2022 · MLB	25	51→54	50	49→50	53	252/351/414	163	314	17	11	24%	10%	119	+2.7	248/341/395	147	300	16	11	21%	10%	111	+2.1	238/339/373	135	284	14	9	20%	11%	105	+1.7
✕Tyler Locklear 2024 · AA	23	48→53	51→50	53→50	46	239/324/402	162	306	18	11	27%	8%	107	+1.8	243/321/392	149	323	16	12	28%	8%	103	+1.5	245/324/392	147	326	16	13	28%	8%	102	+1.2
✕Dilson Herrera 2017 · MLB	23	51→60	49→55	46→50	45	257/307/405	148	309	16	12	22%	6%	100	+1.3	230/283/380	150	299	18	8	28%	6%	86	+0.3	214/271/374	160	282	21	7	31%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Henry Davis 2024 · MLB	24	47	51→50	46→50	49	236/325/396	160	295	19	13	26%	9%	106	+1.8	209/290/352	143	263	18	10	27%	8%	83	+0.1	186/269/319	134	227	18	8	26%	8%	67	-0.6
✕Michael McKenry 2008 · A	23	46→47	54→55	41→40	49	238/309/421	183	282	21	7	24%	9%	105	+1.7	223/292/377	154	278	17	4	25%	8%	88	+0.5	248/321/426	177	294	23	2	23%	9%	111	+0.8

Luke Hill

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps