Seth Keller — OGILVIE

Seth Keller P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 23 RHP 5'10" / 180 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 21 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 131

ERA5.99

FIP5.99

K%19.3%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-0.7%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	2	1	2	12	1	5	0	50%	1.0	8.3%	41.7%	-33.3%	0.0%	18.00	7.67	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	2	1	2	12	1	5	0	50%	1.0	8.3%	41.7%	-33.3%	0.0%	18.00	9.60	—
2023	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	16	7	46	213	32	27	1	44%	2.9	11.1%	15.0%	-3.8%	0.6%	6.26	4.40	—
2023	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	16	7	46	213	32	27	1	44%	2.9	15.0%	12.7%	2.3%	0.5%	6.26	3.75	—
2024	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	2	0	4	21	2	6	0	0%	2.0	9.5%	28.6%	-19.0%	0.0%	2.25	5.91	—
2024	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	2	0	4	21	2	6	0	0%	2.0	9.5%	28.6%	-19.0%	0.0%	2.25	5.91	—
2024	20	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	2	0	4	21	2	6	0	0%	2.0	9.5%	28.6%	-19.0%	0.0%	2.25	6.60	—
2025	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	22	1	35	175	32	39	3	5%	1.6	13.5%	26.3%	-12.8%	1.7%	7.13	6.24	—
2025	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	22	1	35	175	32	39	3	5%	1.6	13.5%	26.3%	-12.8%	1.7%	7.13	6.24	—
2025	21	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	22	1	35	175	32	39	3	5%	1.6	18.3%	22.3%	-4.0%	1.7%	7.13	5.70	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	ATL	20	0	21	89	17	18	3	0%	1.1	19.3%	20.0%	-0.7%	2.9%	5.99	5.99	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	ATL	31	0	33	138	28	23	4	0%	1.1	20.5%	16.8%	3.7%	2.9%	5.62	5.48	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	ATL	13	0	14	59	12	10	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	16.8%	3.7%	2.9%	5.62	5.48	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	59	12	10	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	16.8%	3.7%	2.9%	5.62	5.10	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	144	29	0%	1.1	20.5%	16.8%	3.7%	2.9%	5.62	5.10	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		42	9	87	421	50	89	4	21%	2.1	12.0%	21.1%	-9.1%	1.0%	6.70	5.33	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		96	21	200	964	115	204	10	21%	2.1	12.0%	21.1%	-9.1%	1.0%	6.70	5.33	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Keller (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.99	19.3%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.48	20.5%	3.7%	33	-0.51	—	—	—
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	87
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	83
Jake Eddington R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	23	SW	5.02	18.8%	24.1%	0.8%	.316	4.83	16.6%	-1.5%	105	-0.19	4.70	135	82
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	81
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	81
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	80
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	80
Hansel Rosario R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SW	5.54	19.2%	22.2%	2.3%	.306	7.16	16.3%	-21.0%	19	+1.62	5.25	107	80
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	80
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	79
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	79
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	79
Willian Suarez R 2021 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	20.4%	17.3%	3.0%	.329	5.13	25.4%	9.5%	128	-0.10	3.99	219	78
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	78
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	78
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	78
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	78
Josue Gerardo R 2016 · 5.33 FIP	23	SU	5.33	17.8%	23.5%	1.4%	.220	5.99	16.5%	-6.0%	30	+0.66	4.59	122	78
Jon Keller R 2016 · 5.48 FIP	23	SW	5.48	15.3%	20.9%	1.9%	.265	3.84	8.9%	-2.9%	15	-1.64	3.64	156	78
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	20.1%	18.1%	1.13	5.76
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51