Isaiah Lowe
P
Fort Wayne TinCaps
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 220 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.8 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 125 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 123
ERA5.45
FIP5.45
K%14.2%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%1.1%
ROS IP125
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 177 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 4 | 12 | 54 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 3.1 | 33.3% | 9.3% | 24.1% | 1.9% | 2.19 | 2.47 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 4 | 12 | 54 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 3.1 | 33.3% | 9.3% | 24.1% | 1.9% | 2.19 | 2.45 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 20 | 105 | 448 | 111 | 46 | 4 | 83% | 4.4 | 18.5% | 12.0% | 6.5% | 1.3% | 3.33 | 3.78 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 20 | 105 | 448 | 111 | 46 | 4 | 83% | 4.4 | 24.8% | 10.3% | 14.5% | 0.9% | 3.33 | 2.80 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 22 | 22 | 92 | 433 | 70 | 51 | 8 | 100% | 4.2 | 12.4% | 13.5% | -1.1% | 2.6% | 5.69 | 5.20 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 22 | 22 | 92 | 433 | 70 | 51 | 8 | 100% | 4.2 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 5.69 | 4.38 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 22 | 6 | 52 | 243 | 45 | 35 | 12 | 27% | 2.3 | 14.1% | 16.6% | -2.5% | 6.2% | 6.62 | 7.42 | -1.7 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SD | 119 | 0 | 125 | 529 | 75 | 69 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.2% | 13.1% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 5.45 | 5.45 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.2% | 13.1% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 5.40 | 5.40 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 177 | 772 | 120 | 104 | 27 | — | — | 15.5% | 13.5% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 5.79 | 6.03 | -1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 14.2% | 13.1% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 5.40 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 23 | 23 | 128 | 542 | 90 | 64 | 15 | 100% | 5.6 | 16.6% | 11.7% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 5.17 | 5.07 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 22 | 22 | 130 | 549 | 99 | 60 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.95 | 4.84 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 22 | 22 | 130 | 549 | 104 | 59 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.0% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.75 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 128 | 541 | 103 | 58 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.0% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.79 | 4.78 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 55 | 232 | 39 | 27 | 6 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.6% | 11.7% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 5.12 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 86 | 363 | 66 | 40 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.1% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.79 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 103 | 435 | 82 | 47 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.0% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.77 | 4.70 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 109 | 460 | 88 | 49 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.0% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.74 | 4.73 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 60 | 355 | 1497 | 275 | 163 | 40 | 98% | 5.8 | 18.4% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.84 | 4.40 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 155 | 92 | 23 | 99% | 5.8 | 18.4% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.84 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 72 | 52 | 261 | 1178 | 189 | 158 | 33 | 72% | 3.6 | 16.0% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.99 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 40 | 200 | 903 | 145 | 121 | 26 | 72% | 3.6 | 16.0% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.99 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Isaiah Lowe (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.45 | 14.2% | 13.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.89 | 17.9% | 6.8% | 388 | -0.56 | — | — | — |
| Cobi Johnson R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 85 |
| Chase Cohen R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 15.8% | 13.0% | 2.3% | .317 | 4.66 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 85 | -0.01 | 3.68 | 263 | 85 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 83 |
| Buddy Borden R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.31 | 13.8% | 12.4% | 3.3% | .257 | 4.48 | 14.3% | -1.0% | 115 | -0.83 | 4.04 | 242 | 83 |
| Brooks Auger R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .299 | 3.81 | 26.3% | 14.4% | 46 | -1.19 | 3.81 | 138 | 81 |
| Casey Steward R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 191 | 81 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 80 |
| Logan Evans R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.52 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.20 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 125 | -0.32 | 4.20 | 232 | 80 |
| Trenton Toplikar R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 14.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .248 | 5.60 | 16.5% | 6.4% | 123 | +1.30 | 4.30 | 232 | 80 |
| Tyler Schlaffer R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.5% | 13.3% | 3.1% | .298 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 154 | -1.01 | 4.01 | 363 | 79 |
| Boone Whiting R 2028 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.21 | 11.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.78 | 10.9% | 4.8% | 132 | -0.43 | 4.78 | 227 | 79 |
| Victor Alcántara R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 13.2% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .284 | 4.18 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 217 | -0.73 | 3.56 | 464 | 79 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 79 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.59 | 12.9% | 12.5% | 1.8% | .351 | 3.81 | 16.5% | 6.2% | 146 | -0.78 | 3.50 | 219 | 79 |
| Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 79 |
| Alex Lange R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.2% | 13.0% | 1.9% | .328 | 3.43 | 27.3% | 15.4% | 121 | -0.97 | 3.05 | 489 | 79 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 12.7% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .348 | 3.83 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 135 | -1.08 | 3.22 | 218 | 79 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 79 |
| Justin Dillon R 2027 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 11.8% | 8.8% | 3.7% | .265 | 4.34 | 15.6% | 9.1% | 124 | -0.89 | 3.63 | 239 | 78 |
| J.P. France R 2027 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 128 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 1.07 | 5.03 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |