Isaiah Lowe
P
Fort Wayne TinCaps
+0.3
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 220 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.3 · 2029
ERA4.88
FIP4.88
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.2%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%6.8%
IP96
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2029
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 4 | 4 | 12 | 54 | 18 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.19 | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 24 | 20 | 105 | 448 | 111 | 46 | 4 | 18.5% | 12.0% | 1.2% | 3.33 | 3.72 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 22 | 22 | 92 | 433 | 70 | 51 | 8 | 12.4% | 13.5% | 2.5% | 5.69 | 5.13 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 2 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 5.14 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 96 | 406 | 74 | 46 | 11 | 18.2% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.88 | 4.88 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | SD | — | — | 103 | 434 | 81 | 47 | 13 | 18.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 4.55 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 115 | 484 | 95 | 50 | 13 | 19.6% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SD | 23 | 23 | 128 | 540 | 110 | 53 | 15 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.49 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SD | 25 | 25 | 135 | 570 | 118 | 55 | 16 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.48 | 4.44 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SD | 25 | 25 | 138 | 583 | 121 | 56 | 16 | 20.8% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.45 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SD | 25 | 25 | 138 | 582 | 121 | 56 | 16 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | SD | 25 | 25 | 135 | 569 | 117 | 55 | 16 | 20.6% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.52 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | SD | 24 | 24 | 131 | 552 | 113 | 54 | 16 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.58 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | SD | 23 | 23 | 126 | 533 | 107 | 53 | 16 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | SD | 22 | 22 | 121 | 512 | 102 | 52 | 16 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | SD | 21 | 21 | 116 | 489 | 96 | 50 | 15 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.84 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 89 | 49 | 15 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.95 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 104 | 437 | 82 | 47 | 15 | 18.8% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 5.00 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 97 | 409 | 75 | 45 | 14 | 18.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 5.12 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 52 | 47 | 216 | 963 | 162 | 118 | 19 | 16.8% | 12.3% | 2.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 43 | 200 | 890 | 150 | 109 | 18 | 16.8% | 12.3% | 2.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Isaiah Lowe (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.88 | 18.2% | 11.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.51 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 378 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 92 |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 92 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .251 | 4.78 | 18.8% | 6.8% | 146 | +0.51 | 4.27 | 238 | 92 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .263 | 4.85 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.23 | 3.77 | 350 | 91 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.72 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.89 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.17 | 4.28 | 448 | 91 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.73 | 3.99 | 188 | 91 |
| Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 17.9% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .285 | 4.64 | 14.8% | 4.8% | 153 | +0.30 | 3.44 | 393 | 91 |
| Brett Daniels R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.47 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 152 | +0.52 | 3.95 | 270 | 91 |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.97 | 16.1% | 3.0% | 202 | +0.17 | 4.68 | 326 | 90 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 90 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.25 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.26 | 3.75 | 283 | 90 |
| Daniel Blair R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 90 |
| Zach McCambley R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.99 | 19.4% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .277 | 3.30 | 25.0% | 12.6% | 123 | -1.69 | 2.58 | 314 | 90 |
| Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 90 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.59 | 1.92 | 778 | 90 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .299 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 159 | -0.07 | 3.48 | 383 | 90 |
| Wil Crowe R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.65 | 15.0% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .278 | 4.65 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 266 | +0.00 | 4.00 | 518 | 90 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 1.8% | .311 | 3.86 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 203 | -0.22 | 3.77 | 295 | 90 |
| Linder Castro R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.25 | 4.25 | 279 | 90 |
| Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.78 | 20.3% | 12.6% | 3.3% | .266 | 5.31 | 14.0% | 1.0% | 106 | +0.53 | 3.85 | 291 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.1 | $11M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $5M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.8 | $4M | +$0.7M |
| Totals | $11M | $55M | +$44M | ||