Isaiah Lowe — OGILVIE

Isaiah Lowe P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 220 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.44

FIP5.44

K%14.2%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%0.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CMD3545

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.8M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	12	54	18	5	1	100%	3.1	33.3%	9.3%	24.1%	1.9%	2.19	2.47	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	12	54	18	5	1	100%	3.1	33.3%	9.3%	24.1%	1.9%	2.19	2.47	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	12	54	18	5	1	100%	3.1	33.3%	9.3%	24.1%	1.9%	2.19	2.45	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	105	448	111	46	4	83%	4.4	18.5%	12.0%	6.5%	1.2%	3.33	3.73	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	105	448	111	46	4	83%	4.4	18.5%	12.0%	6.5%	1.2%	3.33	3.73	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	105	448	111	46	4	83%	4.4	24.8%	10.3%	14.5%	0.9%	3.33	2.80	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	22	92	433	70	51	8	100%	4.2	12.4%	13.5%	-1.1%	2.5%	5.69	5.11	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	22	92	433	70	51	8	100%	4.2	12.4%	13.5%	-1.1%	2.5%	5.69	5.11	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	22	92	433	70	51	8	100%	4.2	16.2%	11.8%	4.4%	1.8%	5.69	4.38	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	35	6	73	352	67	51	17	17%	2.1	14.5%	16.8%	-2.2%	6.1%	7.03	7.34	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	35	6	73	352	67	51	17	17%	2.1	14.5%	16.8%	-2.2%	6.1%	7.03	7.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	SD	9	1	17	80	16	11	4	11%	1.9	20.0%	13.8%	6.2%	5.0%	5.71	5.90	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	SD	26	5	56	272	51	40	13	19%	2.1	18.8%	14.7%	4.0%	4.8%	7.44	6.00	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	SD	6	0	6	27	4	4	1	0%	1.1	14.2%	13.2%	0.9%	2.7%	5.44	5.44	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	79	379	71	55	18	—	—	18.7%	14.4%	4.3%	4.7%	6.90	7.19	-2.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SD	22	22	128	542	90	64	15	100%	5.8	16.6%	11.8%	4.8%	2.7%	5.17	5.06	-0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	22	22	130	549	99	60	15	100%	5.9	18.1%	11.0%	7.1%	2.7%	4.94	4.83	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	22	22	130	549	104	59	15	100%	5.9	19.0%	10.8%	8.2%	2.7%	4.81	4.74	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	128	541	103	58	15	100%	6.1	19.0%	10.8%	8.2%	2.8%	4.78	4.76	+0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	124	525	99	57	15	100%	5.9	18.9%	10.9%	8.0%	2.9%	4.82	4.85	+0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	119	501	94	56	15	100%	5.9	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	3.0%	4.92	4.98	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	112	471	86	54	15	100%	5.9	18.3%	11.5%	6.9%	3.2%	5.06	5.16	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	55	232	39	27	6	100%	6.1	16.6%	11.8%	4.8%	2.8%	5.21	5.10	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	86	363	66	40	10	100%	6.1	18.1%	11.0%	7.1%	2.8%	4.98	4.87	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	17	17	103	435	82	47	12	100%	6.1	19.0%	10.8%	8.2%	2.8%	4.85	4.78	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	109	460	88	50	13	100%	6.1	19.0%	10.8%	8.2%	2.8%	4.82	4.80	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	111	469	89	51	14	100%	6.2	18.9%	10.9%	8.0%	3.0%	4.86	4.89	+0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	108	456	85	51	14	100%	6.0	18.7%	11.2%	7.5%	3.1%	4.96	5.02	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	SD	17	17	103	435	80	50	14	100%	6.1	18.3%	11.5%	6.9%	3.3%	5.10	5.20	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		113	113	675	2851	528	316	84	100%	6.0	18.5%	11.1%	7.4%	3.0%	4.95	4.56	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	156	94	25	100%	6.0	18.5%	11.1%	7.4%	3.0%	4.95	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		85	52	282	1287	206	176	39	61%	3.3	16.0%	13.7%	2.3%	3.0%	5.00	5.13	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	37	200	912	146	125	27	61%	3.3	16.0%	13.7%	2.3%	3.0%	5.00	5.13	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Isaiah Lowe (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.44	14.2%	13.2%	2.7%	—	4.88	17.9%	6.7%	388	-0.56	—	—	—
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	82
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	82
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	81
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	80
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	80
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	79
Sam Gibbons R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	10.6%	11.5%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	197	79
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	79
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	79
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	79
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	79
Félix Paulino R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	13.4%	10.0%	2.8%	.313	5.43	18.0%	7.9%	77	+0.66	3.33	394	78
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	78
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	78
Chase Cohen R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.22	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.47	3.52	263	78
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	77
Kyle Miller R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	23	SW	4.68	12.1%	12.0%	2.0%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	164	77
Buddy Borden R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	13.8%	12.4%	2.6%	.257	4.52	14.3%	-1.0%	115	-0.40	4.05	242	77
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	77
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	125	17.8%	11.4%	1.10	4.99
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58