JP Wheat
P
South Bend Cubs
Age 23
RHP
6'5" / 185 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149140vR 131
ERA5.80
FIP5.80
K%20.4%
BB%19.9%
K-BB%0.5%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 22 | 125 | 20 | 36 | 0 | 100% | 1.9 | 10.6% | 35.8% | -25.2% | 0.0% | 7.25 | 6.74 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 22 | 125 | 20 | 36 | 0 | 100% | 1.9 | 16.0% | 28.8% | -12.8% | 0.0% | 7.25 | 6.14 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 7 | 5 | 33 | 138 | 34 | 22 | 1 | 71% | 4.7 | 18.2% | 18.8% | -0.6% | 1.1% | 4.09 | 4.55 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 7 | 5 | 33 | 138 | 34 | 22 | 1 | 71% | 4.7 | 24.6% | 15.9% | 8.7% | 0.7% | 4.09 | 3.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 17 | 0 | 20 | 108 | 23 | 36 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.4% | 38.3% | -21.9% | 0.0% | 8.85 | 6.57 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CHC | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 78 | 76 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 19.9% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 5.80 | 5.80 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.4% | 19.9% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 5.80 | 5.80 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 110 | 488 | 101 | 112 | 11 | — | — | 20.6% | 22.8% | -2.3% | 2.2% | 6.36 | 5.94 | -0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.4% | 19.9% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 5.80 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 88 | 0 | 92 | 389 | 86 | 67 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 17.2% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.44 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 91 | 61 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 15.4% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 5.14 | 5.00 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 37 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 17.2% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.44 | 5.30 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 61 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 15.4% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 5.14 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 97 | 0 | 102 | 431 | 98 | 69 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 16.1% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 5.26 | 4.74 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 135 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 16.1% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 5.26 | 4.74 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 36 | 17 | 76 | 371 | 56 | 112 | 2 | 47% | 2.1 | 15.1% | 30.2% | -15.1% | 0.4% | 6.30 | 5.88 | -0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 95 | 45 | 200 | 981 | 148 | 296 | 4 | 47% | 2.1 | 15.1% | 30.2% | -15.1% | 0.4% | 6.30 | 5.88 | -1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| JP Wheat (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.80 | 20.4% | 19.9% | 2.8% | — | 5.15 | 22.7% | 6.4% | 186 | -0.65 | — | — | — |
| Blake Quinn R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .328 | 4.28 | 17.1% | 3.3% | 48 | -1.04 | 4.28 | 122 | 84 |
| Jhonny Polanco R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.92 | 21.3% | 5.7% | 48 | -0.84 | 3.92 | 116 | 81 |
| Cole Aker R 2025 · 5.51 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.51 | 19.5% | 20.6% | 2.6% | .239 | 6.10 | 12.0% | -9.9% | 28 | +0.59 | 3.60 | 147 | 79 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.20 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.19 | 17.9% | 5.9% | 182 | -1.01 | 3.59 | 327 | 79 |
| Kris Hall R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.65 | 18.3% | 17.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 7.02 | 12.7% | -7.8% | 34 | +2.37 | 4.65 | 106 | 78 |
| Jon Keller R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.41 | 15.3% | 20.9% | 1.7% | .265 | 3.84 | 8.9% | -2.9% | 15 | -1.57 | 3.62 | 156 | 78 |
| Yohan Ramírez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.2% | 14.6% | 2.5% | .243 | 4.16 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 172 | -0.60 | 3.19 | 652 | 77 |
| James Acuna R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.89 | 21.3% | 17.0% | 2.6% | .302 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 60 | -0.66 | 4.23 | 107 | 76 |
| Edwardo Melendez R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 20.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 139 | 74 |
| Carlos Polanco R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.37 | 13.9% | 20.0% | 1.7% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 276 | 74 |
| Henry Henry R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.83 | 18.1% | 16.3% | 2.2% | .354 | 5.52 | 13.5% | -3.4% | 68 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 348 | 74 |
| Jordan Brink R 2026 · 5.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.96 | 18.3% | 19.2% | 3.6% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 132 | 73 |
| Grant Ford R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 73 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 73 |
| Zach Jacobs R 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.94 | 16.9% | 16.4% | 4.0% | .220 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 238 | 72 |
| Jake Eddington R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.98 | 18.8% | 24.1% | 0.7% | .316 | 5.09 | 15.8% | -4.0% | 85 | +0.11 | 4.88 | 114 | 72 |
| Luis Ledo R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.45 | 17.1% | 17.6% | 2.9% | .329 | 3.60 | 20.8% | 8.0% | 85 | -1.85 | 3.22 | 376 | 72 |
| Wyatt Olds R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 18.0% | 17.9% | 1.8% | .314 | 4.78 | 24.5% | 9.1% | 189 | -0.07 | 2.39 | 372 | 72 |
| Cody Adcock R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.54 | 18.6% | 16.5% | 3.5% | .253 | 3.69 | 25.7% | 3.9% | 26 | -1.85 | 3.34 | 139 | 72 |
| Cole Hillier R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 16.9% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.61 | 18.4% | 4.4% | 95 | -0.08 | 3.72 | 153 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 92 | 21.9% | 17.5% | 1.07 | 5.46 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |