JP Wheat — OGILVIE

JP Wheat P South Bend Cubs

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151143vR 135

ERA6.20

FIP6.20

K%20.4%

BB%23.1%

K-BB%-2.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5560

CMD2030

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	22	125	20	36	0	100%	1.9	10.6%	35.8%	-25.2%	0.0%	7.25	6.74	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	22	125	20	36	0	100%	1.9	10.6%	35.8%	-25.2%	0.0%	7.25	6.74	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	22	125	20	36	0	100%	1.9	16.0%	28.8%	-12.8%	0.0%	7.25	6.14	—
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	7	5	33	138	34	22	1	71%	4.7	18.2%	18.8%	-0.6%	1.0%	4.09	4.50	—
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	7	5	33	138	34	22	1	71%	4.7	18.2%	18.8%	-0.6%	1.0%	4.09	4.50	—
2025	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	7	5	33	138	34	22	1	71%	4.7	24.6%	15.9%	8.7%	0.7%	4.09	3.43	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	27	0	30	163	37	49	0	0%	1.1	17.5%	34.6%	-17.1%	0.0%	8.90	6.00	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	27	0	30	163	37	49	0	0%	1.1	17.5%	34.6%	-17.1%	0.0%	8.90	6.00	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	CHC	27	0	30	163	37	49	0	0%	1.1	22.7%	30.1%	-7.4%	0.0%	8.90	4.99	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	CHC	6	0	6	25	5	6	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	23.1%	-2.7%	2.8%	6.20	6.20	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	36	188	42	55	1	—	—	22.4%	29.1%	-6.7%	0.4%	8.46	6.03	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CHC	88	0	92	389	86	76	11	0%	1.0	22.1%	19.5%	2.6%	2.8%	5.76	5.60	-1.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	89	0	93	394	91	68	11	0%	1.0	23.2%	17.2%	6.0%	2.8%	5.40	5.22	-0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	89	0	93	394	94	66	11	0%	1.0	23.8%	16.7%	7.1%	2.8%	5.21	5.11	-0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	88	0	92	388	92	64	11	0%	1.0	23.7%	16.6%	7.2%	2.8%	5.15	5.13	-0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	85	0	89	377	89	63	11	0%	1.0	23.6%	16.7%	6.9%	2.9%	5.19	5.21	-0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	CHC	81	0	85	360	84	61	11	0%	1.1	23.4%	16.9%	6.4%	3.1%	5.28	5.35	-0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	CHC	76	0	80	338	78	58	11	0%	1.1	23.0%	17.2%	5.8%	3.3%	5.43	5.52	-0.8
2027	24	MLB CTX	CHC	38	0	40	169	37	33	5	0%	1.1	22.1%	19.5%	2.6%	2.8%	5.76	5.60	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	59	0	62	262	61	45	7	0%	1.1	23.2%	17.2%	6.0%	2.8%	5.40	5.22	-0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	70	0	74	312	74	52	9	0%	1.1	23.8%	16.7%	7.1%	2.8%	5.21	5.11	-0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	74	0	78	329	78	55	9	0%	1.1	23.7%	16.6%	7.2%	2.8%	5.15	5.13	-0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	75	0	79	334	79	56	10	0%	1.1	23.6%	16.7%	6.9%	2.9%	5.19	5.21	-0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	CHC	73	0	77	325	76	55	10	0%	1.1	23.4%	16.9%	6.4%	3.1%	5.28	5.35	-0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	CHC	70	0	74	312	72	54	10	0%	1.1	23.0%	17.2%	5.8%	3.3%	5.43	5.52	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		462	0	485	2047	478	350	60	0%	1.0	23.3%	17.1%	6.2%	2.9%	5.31	4.91	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	144	25	0%	1.1	23.3%	17.1%	6.2%	2.9%	5.31	4.91	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		46	17	86	426	67	127	1	37%	1.9	15.7%	29.8%	-14.1%	0.3%	6.62	5.73	-5.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		107	40	200	995	156	297	3	37%	1.9	15.7%	29.8%	-14.1%	0.3%	6.62	5.73	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JP Wheat (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.20	20.4%	23.1%	2.8%	—	5.31	23.0%	5.2%	279	-0.89	—	—	—
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	81
Cole Aker R 2019 · 5.60 FIP	22	SW	5.60	19.5%	20.6%	2.8%	.239	6.17	12.0%	-9.9%	28	+0.57	3.60	147	81
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	80
Jon Keller R 2016 · 5.48 FIP	23	SW	5.48	15.3%	20.9%	1.9%	.265	3.84	8.9%	-2.9%	15	-1.64	3.64	156	80
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	79
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	78
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	78
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	77
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	77
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	76
Luis Ledo R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	23	SU	5.51	17.1%	17.6%	3.0%	.329	3.65	20.8%	8.0%	85	-1.86	3.27	376	76
Jared Kelley R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	21	SW	5.03	18.9%	19.4%	1.9%	.365	4.90	16.4%	0.7%	99	-0.13	4.25	250	76
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	75
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	75
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	75
Josue Gerardo R 2016 · 5.33 FIP	23	SU	5.33	17.8%	23.5%	1.4%	.220	5.99	16.5%	-6.0%	30	+0.66	4.59	122	74
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	74
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	73
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	73
Jacob Wallace R 2022 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	24.6%	21.6%	3.4%	.237	4.27	22.9%	10.2%	153	-1.32	3.50	279	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	89	22.9%	18.0%	1.12	5.45
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25