Colby Smelley

C Birmingham Barons

Age 27 R/R 6'2" / 195 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2030MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	24	A+CWS	248	.241/.324/.341	2	35	—	.183/.243/.262
2025	25	AACWS	85	.250/.321/.316	1	61	—	.244/.298/.308
2027PROJ2% MLB	27	MLBCWS	3	.221/.286/.336	0	75	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	28	MLBCWS	56	.221/.286/.335	1	74	0.0
2029PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBCWS	97	.220/.284/.332	2	74	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AA

K%78

Whiff%65

Z-Con%60

wRC+50

wOBA46

BB%34

CompsGrayson Greiner (age 27) · Dominic Miroglio (age 27) · William Simoneit (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .286 / .336

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%7

BABIP286

ISO105

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	30	29	7	2	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	241	267	310	577	69	333	27	3	260	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	65	59	12	2	0	0	6	17	0	1	0	203	277	237	514	34	286	26	9	243	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	369	307	84	20	1	4	45	86	15	0	1	274	392	384	777	111	365	23	12	356	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	112	89	24	2	0	1	15	21	4	0	0	270	398	326	724	56	324	19	13	331	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	78	71	20	2	0	0	6	17	1	0	0	282	346	310	656	28	370	22	8	305	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	248	220	53	12	2	2	22	64	5	0	0	241	324	341	665	100	329	26	9	304	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	85	76	19	2	0	1	7	16	1	0	0	250	321	316	637	66	305	19	8	291	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	30	29	4	1	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	138	167	172	339	34	256	40	3	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	65	61	9	1	0	0	4	23	0	1	0	148	200	164	364	16	251	35	6	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	369	322	68	16	1	3	30	120	15	0	1	211	308	295	603	84	310	33	8	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	112	94	22	2	0	1	10	29	4	0	0	234	333	287	621	53	283	26	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	78	73	18	2	0	0	4	23	1	0	0	247	295	274	569	27	349	29	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	248	229	42	8	2	2	13	88	5	0	0	183	243	262	505	79	278	35	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	85	78	19	2	0	1	5	19	1	0	0	244	298	308	605	64	296	22	6	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	30	29	4	1	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	138	167	172	339	34	235	40	3	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	—	30	29	7	2	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	241	267	310	577	69	333	27	3	260	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	434	384	77	17	1	3	33	144	15	1	1	201	289	273	563	73	310	33	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	434	366	96	22	1	4	51	103	15	1	1	262	375	361	736	98	352	24	12	339	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	190	167	39	3	0	1	14	52	5	0	0	234	312	269	581	36	322	27	7	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	190	160	44	4	0	1	21	38	5	0	0	275	376	319	695	44	344	20	11	320	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	248	229	42	8	2	2	13	88	5	0	0	183	243	262	505	79	286	35	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	—	248	220	53	12	2	2	22	64	5	0	0	241	324	341	665	100	329	26	9	304	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	85	78	19	2	0	1	5	19	1	0	0	244	298	308	605	64	310	22	6	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	—	85	76	19	2	0	1	7	16	1	0	0	250	321	316	637	66	305	19	8	291	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	30	29	4	1	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	138	167	172	339	34	256	40	3	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	434	383	77	17	1	3	33	144	15	1	1	201	289	274	564	73	301	33	8	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	190	169	39	3	0	1	14	52	5	0	0	231	312	266	578	36	310	27	7	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	248	228	42	8	2	2	13	88	5	0	0	184	243	263	506	79	278	35	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	85	79	19	2	0	1	5	19	1	0	0	241	298	304	601	63	296	22	6	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	248	228	42	8	2	2	13	88	5	0	0	184	243	263	506	79	278	35	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	85	79	19	2	0	1	5	19	1	0	0	241	298	304	601	63	296	22	6	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CWS	2%	200	182	41	8	1	4	14	52	2	1	0	221	285	333	619	113	285	26	7	279	75	-6	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	CWS	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	221	286	336	622	114	286	33	0	280	75	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	27%	207	188	42	8	1	4	15	54	2	0	0	220	285	332	617	112	285	26	7	278	74	-6	+0	-1	+4	+4	0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	37%	262	238	52	10	1	5	19	68	3	0	0	219	284	330	614	111	284	26	7	277	74	-8	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	43%	300	272	58	11	1	5	22	79	3	0	0	217	282	326	608	109	282	26	7	275	72	-10	+0	-2	+5	+6	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	27%	56	51	11	2	0	1	4	15	1	0	0	221	286	335	620	114	285	27	7	279	74	-2	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	37%	97	89	19	4	0	2	7	25	1	0	0	220	284	332	617	113	284	26	7	278	74	-3	+0	-1	+2	+2	0.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	43%	129	118	26	5	1	2	9	34	1	0	0	218	283	328	611	110	283	26	7	276	72	-4	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	282	258	56	11	1	5	20	74	3	0	0	217	281	326	607	109	283	26	7	277	62	-9	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	129	25	2	12	46	171	7	0	0	217	281	326	607	109	283	26	7	277	62	-21	+0	-4	+12	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	1892	1709	360	65	7	23	132	551	35	2	1	211	281	297	578	87	294	29	7	259	62	-29	+0	-4	+16	+20	0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	123	22	2	8	45	189	12	1	0	210	279	295	574	85	292	29	7	259	62	-21	+0	-3	+12	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Gabby Street'04-'31 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,677 PA	2.5	1,677	2	17	210*	281*	325*	+30	+0	3.1	3.3
/162	664	1	7	+11.8	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 3
#5Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
#6Malachi Kittridge'01-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,664 PA	2.5	1,664	4	11	219*	281*	319*	+30	+0	1.3	1.3
/162	664	2	4	+11.9	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	285	5	0	219	281	330	+5	+4	0.3	0.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+9.3	0.8	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colby Smelley (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	219/283/331	112	285	2	1	26%	7%	75	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Grayson Greiner 2020 · MLB	27	42	44→45	45→30	45	211/276/327	115	281	12	3	29%	8%	71	-0.8	202/265/319	117	311	13	4	37%	7%	65	-1.2	182/246/266	84	328	9	1	44%	7%	44	-0.9
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA	27	42	44→45	43→40	43	209/272/326	117	281	11	5	29%	7%	69	-0.9	220/287/360	140	261	14	6	21%	8%	83	+0.1	209/274/376	167	219	18	2	15%	7%	78	-0.1
✕William Simoneit 2024 · AAA	27	43	44→45	48→45	43	211/286/328	116	300	11	6	32%	8%	76	-0.4	194/259/307	113	315	11	6	39%	6%	60	-1.6	165/229/267	102	285	10	2	43%	6%	38	-1.0
✕Andrew Susac 2017 · MLB	27	43→39	48→50	47→30	44	217/281/356	138	284	15	3	29%	8%	80	-0.2	200/275/341	141	279	17	5	33%	9%	74	-0.5	168/255/307	139	232	18	0	35%	10%	60	-0.5
✕Andrew Knizner 2022 · MLB	27	43	44→50	48→40	50	213/291/325	112	253	11	6	21%	8%	76	-0.4	219/287/337	118	269	13	4	23%	7%	78	-0.3	229/296/347	118	278	13	3	22%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Dan Butler 2015 · MLB	28	43→39	44→45	44→40	44	213/272/330	117	266	11	3	24%	6%	70	-0.8	216/279/311	95	281	7	3	24%	7%	68	-1.0	206/274/297	91	259	8	0	22%	7%	61	-0.6
✕Pedro Severino 2020 · MLB	27	44→49	47→50	46→45	47	224/284/357	133	263	16	5	22%	7%	81	-0.1	242/305/379	137	302	16	5	24%	8%	93	+0.8	247/308/373	127	316	14	3	25%	8%	93	+0.3
✕Austin Wynns 2019 · MLB	28	47→51	44→45	47→40	45	235/286/345	109	285	13	3	22%	6%	78	-0.3	223/277/322	99	272	12	4	22%	6%	70	-0.8	233/301/333	100	289	11	3	22%	7%	80	-0.0
✕Wyatt Toregas 2010 · MLB	27	45→39	46→45	43→40	46	226/280/348	121	261	14	4	20%	6%	77	-0.3	207/259/315	108	251	11	6	22%	6%	61	-1.5	170/214/263	92	187	12	0	17%	4%	33	-0.7
✕Stevie Berman 2022 · AA	27	41	41→45	49→40	49	202/279/302	100	248	9	6	22%	8%	67	-1.1	203/288/315	112	269	11	5	27%	9%	74	-0.6	184/281/291	108	245	12	1	28%	10%	64	-0.4
✕David Sheaffer 2022 · AAA	27	43	42→50	49→40	39	214/258/321	107	293	10	6	30%	5%	62	-1.4	198/250/294	96	289	8	7	32%	6%	53	-2.1	140/193/216	76	211	6	0	35%	5%	12	-1.3
✕Brad Davis 2011 · MLB	28	42	47→50	44→45	44	216/271/354	139	268	14	5	25%	6%	75	-0.5	209/256/314	105	277	9	6	27%	5%	59	-1.6	193/235/278	85	259	6	4	27%	5%	41	-1.2
✕Chuckie Robinson 2022 · AA	27	42→52	44→45	46→45	43	210/276/321	111	274	13	8	28%	7%	70	-0.9	224/271/333	109	287	12	7	25%	5%	70	-0.8	224/272/312	88	296	10	4	27%	5%	63	-0.8
✕Riley Adams 2023 · MLB	27	41→44	49→50	42→40	43	207/293/356	149	296	16	3	34%	8%	85	+0.2	225/295/377	152	314	16	4	32%	7%	90	+0.6	218/287/365	147	309	16	2	33%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Wynston Sawyer 2019 · AAA	27	47	43→45	42→45	47	226/302/335	109	286	10	5	24%	8%	83	+0.1	218/282/326	108	308	9	6	30%	6%	73	-0.6	198/257/305	106	300	6	0	34%	4%	55	-0.6
✕Brian O'Keefe 2021 · AA	28	41→42	46→50	45→40	47	208/278/334	126	258	14	5	25%	8%	74	-0.6	215/271/365	150	287	19	5	31%	7%	78	-0.3	197/258/354	157	242	18	1	27%	7%	68	-0.6
✕Justin Knoedler 2007 · AAA	27	45	41→45	47→45	41	217/271/321	103	296	7	9	28%	6%	67	-1.1	202/250/330	128	274	12	9	30%	5%	62	-1.4	183/233/320	137	245	13	8	30%	5%	52	-1.0
✕Arturo Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	27	45→42	43→45	47→30	44	223/269/326	103	274	11	6	23%	6%	68	-1.0	251/289/381	130	285	16	6	18%	4%	88	+0.4	268/298/390	122	296	18	2	16%	3%	89	+0.3
✕Carson Blair 2017 · MLB	27	43	45→50	46→30	41	205/277/330	125	325	13	4	38%	8%	72	-0.7	207/272/329	122	340	13	7	40%	7%	70	-0.8	155/222/273	117	276	14	0	46%	6%	36	-0.8
✕Xavier Fernández 2022 · AAA	27	44	48→45	47→40	43	226/277/355	129	272	17	6	24%	6%	78	-0.3	234/283/352	118	280	12	4	20%	6%	79	-0.2	237/286/356	119	279	11	1	19%	6%	78	-0.2

Colby Smelley

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps