Colby Smelley — OGILVIE

Colby SmelleyC Birmingham Barons

Age 26 R/R 6'2" / 195 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .262 / .288

PA136

HR2

K%27

BB%6

ISO89

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 36

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER36

scouting grade only

EYE42

scouting grade only

SPEED42

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	30	29	4	1	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	138	167	172	339	34	235	40	3	162	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	30	29	7	2	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	241	267	310	577	69	333	27	3	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A	2 teams	—	434	387	73	17	1	2	30	154	15	1	1	189	273	253	526	65	305	35	7	241	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A	2 teams	—	434	366	96	22	1	4	51	103	15	1	1	262	375	361	736	98	352	24	12	339	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	2 teams	—	190	166	39	3	0	1	15	55	5	0	0	235	317	271	588	36	333	29	8	267	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	2 teams	—	190	160	44	4	0	1	21	38	5	0	0	275	376	319	695	44	344	20	11	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	248	228	42	7	2	2	14	95	5	0	0	184	247	259	506	75	303	38	6	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	248	220	53	12	2	2	22	64	5	0	0	241	324	341	665	100	329	26	9	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	85	78	21	2	0	2	5	20	1	0	0	269	321	372	693	103	339	24	6	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	85	76	19	2	0	1	7	16	1	0	0	250	321	316	637	66	305	19	8	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	CWS	—	136	124	26	5	1	2	9	37	2	2	0	210	274	315	589	105	268	27	7	253	52	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	CWS	27%	209	190	39	7	1	3	14	55	3	3	1	205	271	300	571	95	271	26	7	260	57	-10	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.0
2028	28	MLB	CWS	40%	276	252	52	10	1	4	19	73	3	4	1	206	270	302	572	95	272	26	7	264	60	-12	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.0
2029	29	MLB	CWS	45%	310	281	59	11	1	5	22	82	4	4	1	210	277	310	586	100	272	26	7	265	61	-14	+0	-1	+6	+9	-0.0
2027	27	MLB	CWS	27%	56	51	11	2	0	1	4	15	1	1	0	216	286	314	599	98	271	27	7	252	51	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	28	MLB	CWS	40%	110	100	21	4	0	2	8	29	1	1	0	210	275	310	585	100	273	26	7	256	54	-6	+0	-0	+2	+3	-0.1
2029	29	MLB	CWS	45%	139	126	27	5	1	2	10	37	2	2	0	214	283	317	600	103	273	27	7	257	55	-7	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	305	277	59	11	1	5	22	81	4	4	0	213	281	314	595	101	280	27	7	255	54	-16	+1	-1	+5	+9	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	126	23	2	11	47	173	9	9	0	214	282	315	597	102	280	27	7	255	54	-34	+2	-2	+12	+18	-0.4
Career	—			—	1918	1735	355	63	7	21	129	583	38	14	4	205	274	285	560	81	292	30	7	253	52	-105	+1	-2	+34	+54	-1.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	119	21	2	7	44	198	13	5	1	202	273	281	553	78	289	30	7	253	52	-36	+1	-1	+12	+18	-0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	30	29	7	2	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	241	267	310	577	69	333	27	3	260	57	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	22	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	65	59	12	2	0	0	6	17	0	1	0	203	277	237	514	34	286	26	9	243	44	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2022	22	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	369	307	84	20	1	4	45	86	15	0	1	274	392	384	777	111	365	23	12	356	131	+13	-0	—	—	+10	2.3
2023	23	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	112	89	24	2	0	1	15	21	4	0	0	270	398	326	724	56	324	19	13	331	111	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2023	23	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	78	71	20	2	0	0	6	17	1	0	0	282	346	310	656	28	370	22	8	305	91	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	24	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	248	220	53	12	2	2	22	64	5	0	0	241	324	341	665	100	329	26	9	304	91	-3	+0	—	—	+7	0.4
2025	25	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	85	76	19	2	0	1	7	16	1	0	0	250	321	316	637	66	305	19	8	291	81	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	308	5	4	209	271	308	+5	+4	-0.0	-0.0
	/162	664	10	9	209	271	308	+11.9	+8.6	-0.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colby Smelley (OGILVIE)	26	25	36	42	42	200/262/288	88	268	2	2	27%	6%	52	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	35→37	37→40	43→45	42	172/248/244	72	250	5	8	31%	7%	35	-2.8	192/256/268	76	294	6	7	34%	7%	43	-2.2	166/232/217	51	261	3	3	35%	7%	17	-2.1
✕Stephen McGee 2017 · AAA	26	40	38→40	44→30	45	193/269/273	80	275	6	4	30%	8%	50	-1.7	204/290/316	112	313	11	4	35%	10%	71	-0.3	189/289/303	113	293	12	0	36%	12%	63	-0.3
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	38	43→45	42→45	46	189/279/295	106	260	11	6	30%	9%	62	-0.9	198/275/331	133	251	15	10	27%	7%	69	-0.4	185/264/327	142	224	17	12	25%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Jackson Williams 2012 · AAA	26	38	40→45	36→40	44	188/259/277	89	253	8	3	28%	7%	47	-1.9	202/251/322	120	260	13	4	27%	5%	55	-1.4	197/245/313	116	250	13	2	27%	6%	48	-0.9
✕Brian Serven 2021 · AA	26	36	43→45	43→30	39	187/243/298	110	248	11	5	29%	5%	46	-2.0	186/244/314	128	236	16	4	28%	6%	51	-1.7	224/307/333	109	327	9	1	31%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Caleb Hamilton 2021 · AAA	26	39	42→45	45	42	196/255/296	101	271	9	9	30%	7%	50	-1.7	183/269/319	136	279	17	6	38%	10%	63	-0.8	145/239/282	137	205	21	3	40%	10%	39	-0.8
✕Javi Herrera 2007 · AA	26	43	40	42→45	40	209/269/302	93	268	8	5	24%	5%	58	-1.2	211/290/305	94	266	8	7	23%	8%	68	-0.5	196/290/279	83	247	8	5	22%	9%	61	-0.3
✕Greg Thissen 2007 · AAA	26	39	41→45	41→45	44	195/249/291	96	244	10	6	24%	6%	46	-2.0	213/285/314	101	291	8	9	28%	8%	67	-0.5	208/292/304	96	295	7	8	29%	10%	69	-0.2
✕David Masters 2019 · A	26	37→36	40→45	38→40	43	186/256/272	86	260	8	2	30%	8%	45	-2.1	211/273/354	143	292	17	4	32%	7%	73	-0.1	201/257/381	180	262	26	2	34%	6%	69	-0.1
✕Adam Donachie 2010 · AA	26	39	42→45	37→30	45	193/262/294	102	268	10	3	31%	8%	53	-1.5	186/250/280	94	259	9	4	30%	8%	44	-2.1	155/219/230	75	211	8	0	30%	7%	16	-1.6
✕Alberto Concepcion 2007 · AAA	26	42	41→45	41→30	41	205/261/301	95	290	8	5	31%	6%	54	-1.4	217/279/343	126	279	14	4	26%	6%	73	-0.1	214/279/349	135	263	16	1	25%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Mike Nickeas 2009 · AAA	26	41	38→40	39→40	44	196/259/272	76	255	5	4	24%	7%	46	-2.0	211/277/293	82	263	7	4	21%	8%	59	-1.1	219/286/299	80	264	7	1	18%	8%	62	-0.4
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	36	37→40	45→40	39	177/253/247	71	262	5	5	32%	6%	38	-2.6	192/271/279	87	273	7	6	30%	7%	53	-1.5	147/251/218	70	204	5	0	28%	8%	28	-0.7
✕Tres Barrera 2021 · AA	26	44→42	42→45	44→40	43	217/268/321	105	271	10	5	24%	6%	62	-0.9	212/281/318	106	269	11	3	24%	8%	67	-0.5	199/272/301	102	248	12	1	24%	8%	55	-0.6
✕Corey Myers 2006 · AAA	26	42	40	44→45	42	206/250/298	92	263	8	5	25%	6%	47	-1.9	219/275/307	88	271	9	7	21%	7%	61	-1.0	221/283/285	64	266	7	5	19%	8%	57	-0.4
✕Matt Jones 2018 · AA	26	39	43→45	37→30	46	196/263/300	104	246	11	3	25%	8%	55	-1.4	199/259/299	100	307	11	5	36%	7%	53	-1.5	179/227/263	85	322	12	0	46%	5%	27	-0.9
✕Alfredo González 2018 · AA	26	45	38→40	44→45	46	216/277/293	77	279	6	7	24%	7%	58	-1.2	206/269/285	79	288	6	6	29%	7%	53	-1.5	194/260/253	59	280	4	2	30%	8%	38	-1.0
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA	26	39	43→45	44→45	46	197/280/304	107	271	12	5	30%	8%	64	-0.8	229/320/373	144	297	15	10	26%	11%	98	+1.6	224/323/376	152	290	16	11	26%	12%	98	+0.8
✕Austin Rei 2019 · AA	25	38	40	40	40	187/261/280	94	277	7	4	33%	7%	50	-1.8	192/262/285	93	308	8	7	37%	7%	51	-1.7	123/204/184	61	206	5	0	40%	8%	-2	-1.0
✕Chadd Krist 2015 · A	25	39	41→40	44→45	42	192/253/287	94	265	8	6	30%	6%	47	-1.9	193/247/294	101	286	10	6	34%	6%	46	-2.0	150/200/249	98	218	12	0	36%	5%	11	-1.4