Colby Smelley — OGILVIE

Colby SmelleyC Birmingham Barons

Age 26 R/R 6'2" / 195 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .264 / .283

PA12

HR0

K%26

BB%6

ISO82

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 29 / POW 34

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT29

scouting grade only

POWER34

scouting grade only

EYE42

scouting grade only

SPEED42

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	30	29	7	2	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	241	267	310	577	69	333	27	3	260	62	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	22	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	65	59	12	2	0	0	6	17	0	1	0	203	277	237	514	34	286	26	9	243	51	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2022	22	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	369	307	84	20	1	4	45	86	15	0	1	274	392	384	777	111	365	23	12	356	127	+12	-0	—	—	+8	2.0
2023	23	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	112	89	24	2	0	1	15	21	4	0	0	270	398	326	724	56	324	19	13	331	110	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2023	23	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	78	71	20	2	0	0	6	17	1	0	0	282	346	310	656	28	370	22	8	305	92	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	24	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	248	220	53	12	2	2	22	64	5	0	0	241	324	341	665	100	329	26	9	304	92	-2	+0	—	—	+5	0.3
2025	25	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	85	76	19	2	0	1	7	16	1	0	0	250	321	316	637	66	305	19	8	291	83	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	30	29	4	1	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	138	167	172	339	34	260	40	3	165	-2	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2022	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	65	61	9	1	0	0	4	24	0	1	0	148	200	164	364	16	262	37	6	180	8	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2022	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	369	325	67	15	1	3	27	125	15	0	1	206	297	286	583	80	315	34	7	262	63	-16	-0	—	—	+8	-0.9
2023	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	112	93	23	2	0	1	11	30	4	0	0	247	352	301	653	54	299	27	10	283	78	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2023	23	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	78	73	18	2	0	0	4	24	1	0	0	247	295	274	569	27	359	31	5	249	55	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2024	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	248	228	43	8	2	2	14	90	5	0	0	189	251	268	519	79	298	36	6	231	42	-17	+0	—	—	+5	-1.2
2025	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	85	78	19	2	0	1	5	19	1	0	0	244	298	308	605	64	301	22	6	262	63	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	30	29	4	1	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	138	167	172	339	34	235	40	3	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	—	30	29	7	2	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	241	267	310	577	69	333	27	3	260	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	434	386	77	17	1	3	31	149	15	1	1	199	285	272	557	73	314	34	7	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	434	366	96	22	1	4	51	103	15	1	1	262	375	361	736	98	352	24	12	339	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	190	166	40	3	0	1	15	54	5	0	0	241	323	277	600	36	339	28	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	190	160	44	4	0	1	21	38	5	0	0	275	376	319	695	44	344	20	11	320	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	248	228	43	8	2	2	14	90	5	0	0	189	251	268	519	79	299	36	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	—	248	220	53	12	2	2	22	64	5	0	0	241	324	341	665	100	329	26	9	304	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	85	78	19	2	0	1	5	19	1	0	0	244	298	308	605	64	310	22	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	—	85	76	19	2	0	1	7	16	1	0	0	250	321	316	637	66	305	19	8	291	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	30	29	4	1	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	138	167	172	339	34	260	40	3	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	434	385	77	17	1	3	31	149	15	1	1	200	285	273	557	73	307	34	7	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	190	168	40	3	0	1	15	54	5	0	0	238	323	274	596	36	324	28	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	248	227	43	8	2	2	14	90	5	0	0	189	251	269	520	79	298	36	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	85	79	19	2	0	1	5	19	1	0	0	241	298	304	601	63	301	22	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	190	168	40	3	0	1	15	54	5	0	0	238	323	274	596	36	324	28	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	248	227	43	8	2	2	14	90	5	0	0	189	251	269	520	79	298	36	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	85	79	19	2	0	1	5	19	1	0	0	241	298	304	601	63	301	22	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	26	MLB MLE	CWS	2%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	182	250	182	432		271	25	8	252	57	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CWS	27%	209	190	40	7	1	3	14	54	3	3	1	211	275	305	581	95	273	26	7	259	61	-10	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	40%	276	252	53	10	1	4	19	71	3	4	1	210	274	306	579	95	274	26	7	263	64	-12	+0	-1	+5	+6	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	45%	310	281	58	11	1	4	22	80	4	4	1	206	274	295	569	89	274	26	7	264	65	-13	+0	-1	+6	+7	-0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	48%	333	302	63	12	1	5	24	86	4	4	1	209	276	305	580	96	273	26	7	263	64	-14	+0	-2	+6	+7	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	CWS	27%	56	51	11	2	0	1	4	14	1	1	0	216	286	314	599	98	273	25	7	251	61	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	40%	110	100	20	4	0	1	8	28	1	1	0	200	266	270	536	70	274	25	7	255	64	-5	+0	-0	+2	+2	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	45%	139	126	27	5	1	2	10	36	2	2	0	214	283	317	600	103	274	26	7	256	65	-6	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	48%	158	144	31	6	1	2	11	41	2	2	1	215	280	312	593	97	274	26	7	255	64	-7	+0	-1	+3	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	463	421	89	17	2	6	33	119	6	6	1	211	278	304	582	93	278	26	7	255	59	-20	+1	-2	+8	+10	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	125	24	3	8	46	167	8	8	1	212	277	303	580	91	279	26	7	255	59	-28	+1	-3	+12	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2127	1923	399	71	7	23	146	618	40	16	5	207	277	288	565	80	290	29	7	255	59	-49	+1	-4	+20	+25	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	122	22	2	7	45	189	12	5	2	207	278	287	565	80	290	29	7	255	59	-28	+1	-2	+12	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.7	466	6	6	210	273	303	+8	+8	0.1	0.1
/162	664	9	9	+11.9	+11.4	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colby Smelley (OGILVIE)	26	29	34	42	42	202/264/283	81	271	1	2	26%	6%	57	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	37→38	37→40	43→45	44	179/255/251	73	251	5	8	29%	7%	47	-2.6	194/257/270	76	290	5	7	32%	7%	51	-2.3	168/234/218	51	258	3	3	33%	7%	28	-2.1
✕Stephen McGee 2017 · AAA	26	40	38→40	44→30	45	194/269/271	78	275	6	4	30%	8%	56	-1.9	204/290/309	105	310	9	4	34%	10%	73	-0.6	190/290/293	103	292	10	0	35%	12%	67	-0.4
✕Javi Herrera 2007 · AA	26	43	40	42→45	41	210/270/300	90	267	7	5	23%	5%	63	-1.4	211/290/300	89	265	7	7	22%	8%	70	-0.8	196/290/274	77	246	7	5	21%	9%	64	-0.4
✕Mike Nickeas 2009 · AAA	26	41	38→40	39→40	45	196/260/271	75	255	5	4	24%	7%	52	-2.2	212/279/293	81	262	6	4	20%	8%	64	-1.3	222/288/298	77	266	6	1	18%	8%	67	-0.5
✕Jackson Williams 2012 · AAA	26	38	39→45	36→40	44	188/260/273	85	250	7	3	27%	7%	53	-2.1	201/250/314	113	257	12	4	26%	5%	58	-1.7	197/246/306	109	249	12	2	25%	6%	53	-1.1
✕Adam Donachie 2010 · AA	26	39	41→45	37→30	46	194/263/291	96	266	9	3	29%	8%	58	-1.7	188/252/281	93	260	9	4	29%	8%	51	-2.2	158/222/233	74	214	8	0	29%	7%	28	-1.5
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA	25	39	42→45	42→45	46	191/280/293	102	262	10	6	29%	9%	65	-1.2	199/277/327	128	250	14	10	25%	7%	72	-0.7	186/267/323	137	222	16	12	24%	7%	65	-0.7
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	37	37→40	45→40	40	178/255/248	70	259	5	5	32%	6%	46	-2.6	192/272/277	85	272	7	6	30%	7%	59	-1.7	144/248/206	63	200	4	0	27%	8%	33	-0.8
✕Corey Myers 2006 · AAA	26	42	40	44→45	43	207/253/299	92	265	8	5	25%	6%	55	-2.0	220/277/306	86	271	8	7	21%	7%	66	-1.1	221/283/282	61	266	6	5	18%	8%	62	-0.5
✕David Masters 2019 · A	26	38→37	41→45	38→40	44	189/259/279	91	261	9	2	30%	8%	54	-2.0	210/273/346	136	290	16	4	32%	7%	74	-0.5	196/256/361	165	256	23	2	33%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Greg Thissen 2007 · AAA	26	39	41→45	41→45	44	195/249/289	94	244	9	6	24%	6%	52	-2.2	213/285/313	100	291	8	9	28%	8%	71	-0.8	208/292/304	96	295	7	8	29%	10%	72	-0.3
✕Chadd Krist 2015 · A	25	40	41→40	44→45	42	196/258/292	96	269	8	6	29%	7%	56	-1.9	194/248/291	97	281	9	6	32%	6%	52	-2.2	151/202/238	87	213	10	0	34%	5%	19	-1.4
✕Spencer Kieboom 2017 · AA	26	44	39→40	44→30	48	214/273/300	86	262	6	3	21%	7%	63	-1.3	211/274/295	84	260	7	3	20%	8%	63	-1.4	202/266/277	76	247	6	0	20%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2008 · AAA	25	38	38→40	45→40	37	186/239/266	79	266	5	4	31%	5%	42	-2.9	207/260/286	79	287	7	4	29%	6%	55	-2.0	210/276/290	80	290	6	0	28%	7%	60	-0.7
✕Erick Castillo 2019 · AA	26	42	37→30	46→30	41	203/249/273	70	254	6	4	22%	5%	47	-2.5	208/263/281	73	264	6	5	22%	5%	55	-1.9	198/267/228	29	252	1	0	20%	5%	43	-0.8
✕Caleb Hamilton 2021 · AAA	26	39	41→45	45	43	195/255/293	98	270	8	9	30%	7%	55	-1.9	181/266/305	124	275	14	6	37%	10%	63	-1.4	141/235/256	115	206	16	3	39%	10%	39	-1.0
✕Alberto Concepcion 2007 · AAA	26	43	40→45	41→30	41	207/263/299	91	287	8	5	30%	6%	59	-1.6	217/278/336	119	277	12	4	25%	6%	74	-0.5	213/278/338	125	261	14	1	23%	6%	73	-0.3
✕Lyle Lin 2023 · AA	26	40	35→30	43→40	40	189/247/246	57	270	3	4	30%	6%	41	-3.0	210/275/282	72	284	5	5	26%	6%	60	-1.6	171/242/188	17	208	0	4	16%	6%	26	-0.8
✕Austin Rei 2019 · AA	25	39	40	40	41	190/266/285	95	277	7	4	32%	7%	58	-1.7	196/266/290	94	304	8	7	35%	7%	59	-1.6	130/211/192	62	213	4	0	38%	8%	14	-0.9
✕Matt Jones 2017 · AA	25	41	38→45	44→30	43	197/249/281	84	261	4	5	26%	6%	49	-2.4	200/262/304	104	273	12	3	30%	7%	61	-1.5	189/255/290	101	252	14	0	30%	7%	53	-0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps