Colby Smelley
C Birmingham Barons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A+/ACWS | 190 | .275/.376/.319 | 1 | 0 | 64 | — | .239/.318/.282 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+CWS | 248 | .241/.324/.341 | 2 | 0 | 35 | — | .183/.243/.262 |
| 2025 | 25 | AACWS | 85 | .250/.321/.316 | 1 | 0 | 61 | — | .244/.298/.308 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBCWS | 2 | .221/.286/.336 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBCWS | 34 | .221/.286/.335 | 1 | 0 | 74 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ37% MLB | 29 | MLBCWS | 60 | .220/.284/.332 | 1 | 0 | 74 | -0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL White Sox | — | 30 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 267 | 310 | 577 | 69 | 333 | 27 | 3 | 260 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 65 | 59 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 203 | 277 | 237 | 514 | 34 | 286 | 26 | 9 | 243 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 369 | 307 | 84 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 86 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 274 | 392 | 384 | 777 | 111 | 365 | 23 | 12 | 356 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 112 | 89 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 270 | 398 | 326 | 724 | 56 | 324 | 19 | 13 | 331 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 78 | 71 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 282 | 346 | 310 | 656 | 28 | 370 | 22 | 8 | 305 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 248 | 220 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 64 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 324 | 341 | 665 | 100 | 329 | 26 | 9 | 304 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 85 | 76 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 321 | 316 | 637 | 66 | 305 | 19 | 8 | 291 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 30 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 167 | 172 | 339 | 34 | 256 | 40 | 3 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 65 | 61 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 148 | 200 | 164 | 364 | 16 | 251 | 35 | 6 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 369 | 322 | 68 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 120 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 211 | 308 | 295 | 603 | 84 | 310 | 33 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 112 | 94 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 333 | 287 | 621 | 53 | 283 | 26 | 9 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 78 | 73 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 295 | 274 | 569 | 27 | 349 | 29 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 248 | 229 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 88 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 243 | 262 | 505 | 79 | 278 | 35 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 85 | 78 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 298 | 308 | 605 | 64 | 296 | 22 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 30 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 167 | 172 | 339 | 34 | 235 | 40 | 3 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK RAW | ACL White Sox | — | 30 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 267 | 310 | 577 | 69 | 333 | 27 | 3 | 260 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 384 | 77 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 144 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 201 | 289 | 273 | 563 | 73 | 310 | 33 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 434 | 366 | 96 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 51 | 103 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 262 | 375 | 361 | 736 | 98 | 352 | 24 | 12 | 339 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 190 | 167 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 52 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 312 | 269 | 581 | 36 | 322 | 27 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 190 | 160 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 376 | 319 | 695 | 44 | 344 | 20 | 11 | 320 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 248 | 229 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 88 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 243 | 262 | 505 | 79 | 286 | 35 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ RAW | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 248 | 220 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 64 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 324 | 341 | 665 | 100 | 329 | 26 | 9 | 304 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 85 | 78 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 298 | 308 | 605 | 64 | 310 | 22 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 85 | 76 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 321 | 316 | 637 | 66 | 305 | 19 | 8 | 291 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 30 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 167 | 172 | 339 | 34 | 256 | 40 | 3 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 383 | 77 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 144 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 201 | 289 | 274 | 564 | 73 | 301 | 33 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 190 | 169 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 52 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 312 | 266 | 578 | 36 | 310 | 27 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 248 | 228 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 88 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 243 | 263 | 506 | 79 | 278 | 35 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 85 | 79 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 298 | 304 | 601 | 63 | 296 | 22 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 248 | 228 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 88 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 243 | 263 | 506 | 79 | 278 | 35 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 85 | 79 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 298 | 304 | 601 | 63 | 296 | 22 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | CWS | 2% | 200 | 182 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 52 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 285 | 333 | 619 | 113 | 285 | 26 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | CWS | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 286 | 336 | 622 | 114 | 286 | 50 | 0 | 280 | 75 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | CWS | 27% | 128 | 117 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 285 | 332 | 617 | 112 | 285 | 26 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB MLE | CWS | 37% | 162 | 147 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 284 | 330 | 614 | 111 | 284 | 26 | 7 | 277 | 74 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | CWS | 27% | 34 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 286 | 335 | 620 | 114 | 285 | 26 | 6 | 279 | 74 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB CTX | CWS | 37% | 60 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 284 | 332 | 617 | 113 | 284 | 27 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 94 | 87 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 266 | 310 | 576 | 103 | 267 | 27 | 6 | 279 | 57 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 125 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 173 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 266 | 312 | 578 | 105 | 267 | 27 | 6 | 279 | 57 | -20 | +0 | -5 | +12 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1361 | 1228 | 256 | 45 | 5 | 14 | 93 | 412 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 208 | 281 | 287 | 568 | 79 | 298 | 30 | 7 | 253 | 57 | -12 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +8 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 122 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 44 | 197 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 279 | 287 | 565 | 78 | 298 | 30 | 7 | 253 | 57 | -20 | +0 | -4 | +12 | +14 | 0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AABirmingham Barons · 85 PAwOBA .284 → .259 (−25)K% 18.8% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.82% | ÷1.020 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.24% | ÷1.020 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 5.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷0.954 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×0.998 | 25.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.984 | ×0.910 | ×1.012 | ×0.998 | 3.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.012 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.67% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.70% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 91, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .284 → .259; ISO .066 → .065; BABIP .305 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 248 PAwOBA .297 → .220 (−77)K% 25.8% → 35.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.81% | ÷0.952 | ×1.310 | — | — | 35.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.87% | ÷1.006 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 5.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.02% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 1.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.72% | ÷0.972 | ×0.870 | ×0.999 | ×0.988 | 20.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.070 | ×0.780 | ×0.999 | ×0.988 | 5.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×0.988 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.28% | ÷0.817 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 1.36% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 94, 2B 114, 3B 86, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .297 → .220; ISO .100 → .078; BABIP .329 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 112 PAwOBA .335 → .273 (−63)K% 18.8% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.75% | ÷0.948 | ×1.310 | — | — | 25.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.39% | ÷0.943 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 8.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.57% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 2.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.88% | ÷1.011 | ×0.870 | ×1.026 | ×0.998 | 27.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.030 | ×0.780 | ×1.026 | ×0.998 | 2.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.850 | ×1.026 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.017 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.27% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 106, 3B 102, K 90, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .335 → .273; ISO .056 → .048; BABIP .324 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 78 PAwOBA .297 → .249 (−49)K% 21.8% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.79% | ÷1.004 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷0.951 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 5.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 31.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 3.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.861 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 100, 2B 110, 3B 98, K 101, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .297 → .249; ISO .028 → .021; BABIP .370 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 369 PAwOBA .349 → .264 (−85)K% 23.3% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.31% | ÷0.972 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.92% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.07% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 3.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.70% | ÷1.050 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | — | 22.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.05% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | — | 7.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | — | 0.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.81% | ÷1.172 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.24% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 110, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 94, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .349 → .264; ISO .111 → .081; BABIP .365 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 65 PAwOBA .237 → .174 (−63)K% 26.2% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.15% | ÷0.953 | ×1.310 | — | — | 35.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.23% | ÷1.037 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 5.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷0.956 | ×0.870 | ×0.984 | ×1.012 | 21.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.056 | ×0.780 | ×0.984 | ×1.012 | 3.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.984 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.955 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 91, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 91, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .237 → .174; ISO .034 → .023; BABIP .286 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL White Sox · 30 PAwOBA .253 → .162 (−90)K% 26.7% → 38.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷0.992 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.33% | ÷0.990 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 2.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷1.025 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 18.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷0.989 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 6.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 105, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .253 → .162; ISO .069 → .042; BABIP .333 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).