Colby SmelleyC
Birmingham Barons
Age 26
R/R
6'2" / 195 lbs
AA
BB +6%HR -6%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.3 · 2027
wRC+†65
AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .276 / .315
PA136
HR2
K%28
BB%7
MLB%2%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
29→29
PWR
35→35
SPD
42→42
EYE
41→41
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2028
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $3M | $-3M | -$6M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 30 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .138 | .167 | .172 | .339 | .034 | .235 | 40 | 3 | .162 | -18 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 22 | A | 2 teams | 434 | 387 | 75 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 150 | 15 | 1 | 1 | .194 | .278 | .261 | .539 | .067 | .305 | 35 | 7 | .246 | 46 | -26 | -0 | +0 | +8 | +12 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | 2 teams | 190 | 167 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 53 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .234 | .312 | .269 | .581 | .036 | .325 | 28 | 7 | .263 | 60 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 248 | 229 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 89 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .183 | .243 | .262 | .505 | .079 | .288 | 36 | 5 | .223 | 29 | -20 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +7 | -0.9 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 85 | 78 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .231 | .286 | .295 | .581 | .064 | .298 | 24 | 6 | .261 | 58 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 136 | 123 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .211 | .281 | .317 | .599 | .106 | .284 | 29 | 7 | .270 | 65 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB 11% | CWS | 209 | 189 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 59 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .212 | .280 | .323 | .603 | .111 | .285 | 28 | 7 | .275 | 69 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB 22% | CWS | 276 | 249 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 77 | 4 | 3 | 1 | .213 | .285 | .321 | .606 | .108 | .285 | 28 | 8 | .278 | 71 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB 34% | CWS | 310 | 280 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 86 | 4 | 4 | 1 | .214 | .283 | .325 | .608 | .111 | .285 | 28 | 7 | .278 | 71 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB 44% | CWS | 333 | 301 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 93 | 4 | 4 | 0 | .213 | .282 | .319 | .601 | .106 | .284 | 28 | 8 | .276 | 69 | -11 | +1 | -2 | +6 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB 53% | CWS | 320 | 289 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 91 | 4 | 3 | 0 | .211 | .281 | .318 | .599 | .107 | .282 | 28 | 8 | .272 | 67 | -12 | +1 | -3 | +6 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB 64% | CWS | 300 | 270 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 87 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .207 | .279 | .307 | .587 | .100 | .281 | 29 | 8 | .268 | 63 | -13 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB 82% | CWS | 268 | 243 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 79 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .202 | .271 | .296 | .567 | .095 | .279 | 29 | 7 | .262 | 59 | -12 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +8 | -0.4 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 224 | 202 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 68 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .198 | .270 | .287 | .557 | .089 | .277 | 30 | 8 | .256 | 54 | -12 | +0 | -5 | +4 | +6 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3363 | 3036 | 627 | 113 | 11 | 48 | 241 | 1003 | 57 | 25 | 4 | .207 | .277 | .298 | .576 | .092 | .289 | 30 | 7 | .263 | 59 | -155 | +3 | -20 | +60 | +95 | -1.6 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 587 | 121 | 22 | 2 | 9 | 47 | 194 | 11 | 5 | 1 | .206 | .278 | .296 | .574 | .090 | .289 | 30 | 7 | .263 | 59 | -30 | +1 | -4 | +12 | +18 | -0.3 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 30 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .241 | .267 | .310 | .577 | .069 | .333 | 27 | 3 | .260 | 57 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 65 | 59 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .203 | .277 | .237 | .514 | .034 | .286 | 26 | 9 | .243 | 44 | -4 | +0 | — | — | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 369 | 307 | 84 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 86 | 15 | 0 | 1 | .274 | .392 | .384 | .777 | .111 | .365 | 23 | 12 | .356 | 131 | +13 | -0 | — | — | +10 | 2.3 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 112 | 89 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .270 | .398 | .326 | .724 | .056 | .324 | 19 | 13 | .331 | 111 | +1 | +0 | — | — | +3 | 0.5 |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 78 | 71 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .282 | .346 | .310 | .656 | .028 | .370 | 22 | 8 | .305 | 91 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 248 | 220 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 64 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .241 | .324 | .341 | .665 | .100 | .329 | 26 | 9 | .304 | 91 | -3 | +0 | — | — | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 85 | 76 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .321 | .316 | .637 | .066 | .305 | 19 | 8 | .291 | 81 | -2 | +0 | — | — | +2 | 0.1 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Colby Smelley (OGILVIE) | 26 | 29 | 35 | 42 | 41 | .210/.276/.315 | .106 | .284 | 2 | 2 | 28% | 7% | 65 | -0.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA |
26 | 38 | 42→45 | 43→45 | 44 | .190/.273/.285 | .095 | .272 | 10 | 5 | 32% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .226/.321/.370 | .144 | .293 | 15 | 10 | 26% | 11% | 98 | +1.6 | .221/.324/.370 | .149 | .286 | 16 | 11 | 27% | 12% | 97 | +0.8 |
|
✕Adam Donachie 2010 · AA |
26 | 38 | 42→45 | 38→30 | 45 | .192/.261/.293 | .102 | .266 | 10 | 3 | 31% | 8% | 53 | -1.5 | .188/.252/.282 | .094 | .260 | 9 | 3 | 30% | 8% | 46 | -2.0 | .160/.224/.240 | .080 | .215 | 9 | 0 | 29% | 7% | 21 | -1.5 |
|
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA |
26 | 38 | 44→45 | 47→30 | 44 | .195/.260/.302 | .108 | .268 | 12 | 4 | 31% | 8% | 54 | -1.4 | .216/.284/.346 | .130 | .306 | 15 | 4 | 32% | 9% | 76 | +0.0 | .206/.279/.334 | .128 | .290 | 16 | 1 | 33% | 9% | 68 | -0.3 |
|
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA |
25 | 39 | 43→45 | 43→45 | 46 | .192/.280/.301 | .108 | .265 | 11 | 7 | 30% | 9% | 63 | -0.8 | .198/.277/.336 | .138 | .251 | 16 | 10 | 27% | 7% | 71 | -0.3 | .186/.266/.336 | .150 | .221 | 18 | 12 | 25% | 7% | 63 | -0.5 |
|
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA |
27 | 41 | 44→45 | 44→40 | 43 | .205/.269/.321 | .117 | .279 | 11 | 5 | 30% | 7% | 63 | -0.9 | .216/.284/.361 | .145 | .260 | 15 | 5 | 23% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .203/.270/.374 | .171 | .212 | 20 | 2 | 16% | 7% | 72 | -0.1 |
|
✕Ryan Ortiz 2014 · AAA |
26 | 40 | 43→45 | 46→40 | 47 | .199/.281/.306 | .107 | .269 | 11 | 4 | 29% | 9% | 65 | -0.7 | .203/.295/.294 | .091 | .287 | 7 | 4 | 29% | 10% | 67 | -0.5 | .185/.302/.243 | .058 | .271 | 3 | 0 | 28% | 13% | 55 | -0.7 |
|
✕Greg Thissen 2007 · AAA |
26 | 39 | 42→45 | 41→45 | 43 | .196/.250/.293 | .097 | .248 | 10 | 6 | 25% | 6% | 47 | -1.9 | .212/.282/.310 | .098 | .289 | 8 | 8 | 27% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .208/.292/.304 | .096 | .295 | 7 | 8 | 29% | 10% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Brian Serven 2021 · AA |
26 | 38 | 45→50 | 43→30 | 40 | .195/.250/.317 | .122 | .255 | 13 | 5 | 28% | 5% | 54 | -1.4 | .193/.251/.326 | .133 | .244 | 17 | 4 | 28% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .182/.252/.278 | .096 | .251 | 12 | 0 | 31% | 7% | 42 | -0.9 |
|
✕Matt Jones 2018 · AA |
26 | 40 | 43→45 | 38→30 | 46 | .200/.265/.306 | .106 | .250 | 11 | 3 | 24% | 7% | 57 | -1.2 | .200/.260/.303 | .103 | .299 | 11 | 4 | 35% | 7% | 54 | -1.4 | .179/.227/.266 | .087 | .314 | 12 | 0 | 45% | 5% | 28 | -0.9 |
|
✕Jorge Saez 2017 · AA |
26 | 39 | 44→45 | 44→30 | 42 | .198/.260/.314 | .117 | .277 | 12 | 3 | 32% | 7% | 57 | -1.2 | .209/.275/.343 | .134 | .298 | 17 | 5 | 34% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .192/.269/.319 | .127 | .267 | 18 | 2 | 34% | 9% | 61 | -0.3 |
|
✕Adam Weisenburger 2014 · AA |
25 | 43 | 40 | 41→30 | 45 | .208/.285/.299 | .091 | .281 | 7 | 4 | 27% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .217/.296/.306 | .089 | .280 | 6 | 4 | 23% | 8% | 70 | -0.3 | .212/.296/.290 | .078 | .266 | 5 | 2 | 20% | 8% | 65 | -0.4 |
|
✕Javi Herrera 2007 · AA |
26 | 43 | 40 | 43→45 | 40 | .211/.270/.304 | .093 | .271 | 8 | 6 | 24% | 5% | 59 | -1.1 | .214/.291/.306 | .092 | .270 | 8 | 6 | 22% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .200/.294/.282 | .082 | .251 | 8 | 5 | 22% | 9% | 63 | -0.3 |
|
✕Jeremy Farrell 2013 · AAA |
26 | 46→38 | 41→45 | 45 | 41 | .219/.284/.318 | .099 | .304 | 8 | 6 | 29% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .203/.265/.302 | .099 | .299 | 8 | 4 | 33% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .195/.252/.294 | .099 | .294 | 7 | 2 | 34% | 5% | 45 | -1.1 |
|
✕Cael Brockmeyer 2018 · AAA |
26 | 37→40 | 45 | 46→40 | 38 | .192/.248/.309 | .116 | .266 | 13 | 4 | 32% | 6% | 51 | -1.7 | .214/.272/.315 | .101 | .317 | 10 | 7 | 34% | 5% | 63 | -0.9 | .241/.302/.322 | .081 | .371 | 7 | 5 | 34% | 5% | 73 | -0.0 |
|
✕Dusty Brown 2008 · AAA |
26 | 42 | 45 | 45→30 | 43 | .213/.267/.333 | .120 | .279 | 12 | 3 | 28% | 6% | 65 | -0.7 | .225/.286/.343 | .118 | .302 | 12 | 3 | 28% | 7% | 75 | -0.0 | .192/.264/.338 | .146 | .238 | 15 | 2 | 26% | 8% | 64 | -0.3 |
|
✕Davis Wendzel 2022 · AAA |
25 | 43→28 | 46→50 | 43→40 | 42 | .213/.286/.339 | .126 | .287 | 14 | 6 | 29% | 7% | 76 | +0.0 | .190/.265/.334 | .144 | .248 | 19 | 5 | 31% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .191/.275/.335 | .144 | .229 | 19 | 4 | 26% | 8% | 68 | -0.4 |
|
✕Nick Quintana 2023 · AA |
25 | 38→40 | 44→45 | 43→45 | 48 | .192/.276/.305 | .113 | .261 | 12 | 6 | 30% | 9% | 63 | -0.9 | .193/.276/.302 | .109 | .277 | 10 | 6 | 32% | 9% | 62 | -0.9 | .109/.220/.196 | .087 | .164 | 8 | 0 | 36% | 9% | 11 | -1.0 |
|
✕Dustin Garneau 2014 · AA |
26 | 38 | 46→50 | 43→45 | 47 | .195/.262/.327 | .131 | .223 | 14 | 5 | 20% | 7% | 62 | -0.9 | .205/.265/.338 | .133 | .234 | 15 | 6 | 20% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .184/.263/.355 | .171 | .225 | 21 | 0 | 29% | 7% | 68 | -0.2 |
|
✕Brent Diaz 2022 · AA |
26 | 41 | 43→45 | 45 | 39 | .196/.275/.304 | .108 | .304 | 11 | 8 | 37% | 7% | 62 | -0.9 | .218/.283/.353 | .135 | .305 | 16 | 9 | 32% | 6% | 78 | +0.2 | .202/.265/.336 | .134 | .270 | 18 | 9 | 31% | 5% | 61 | -0.3 |
|
✕Chadd Krist 2015 · A |
25 | 40 | 41→40 | 44→45 | 43 | .198/.262/.299 | .100 | .269 | 8 | 6 | 29% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .191/.246/.291 | .100 | .279 | 10 | 6 | 33% | 6% | 45 | -2.1 | .147/.198/.242 | .094 | .211 | 11 | 0 | 36% | 5% | 8 | -1.4 |