Juan Reynoso

P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	AMIA	37	63	4.29	3.94	22.2%	16.4%	—	K 16.4% · BB 19.3% · FIP 4.98
2025	21	MIX2 levels	43	57	3.34	2.71	25.0%	10.3%	—	K 19.5% · BB 12.0% · FIP 3.61
2026	22	MIX2 levels	46	63	5.03	3.93	32.0%	16.7%	—	K 23.2% · BB 19.9% · FIP 5.59
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIA	59	62	5.57	5.57	21.3%	17.9%	-0.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIA	26	27	5.28	5.18	22.1%	15.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBMIA	40	42	5.04	4.93	22.6%	13.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsJames Acuna (age 23) · Will Varmette (age 21) · Will McAffer (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.57

FIP5.57

K%21.3%

BB%17.9%

K-BB%3.5%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	7	1	15	69	17	9	1	14%	2.1	16.8%	16.3%	0.4%	1.5%	4.80	4.55	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	7	1	15	69	17	9	1	14%	2.1	24.6%	13.0%	11.6%	1.4%	4.80	3.50	—
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	36	168	32	26	7	75%	3.0	15.4%	17.2%	-1.9%	6.3%	5.80	7.42	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	9	36	168	32	26	7	75%	3.0	19.0%	15.5%	3.6%	4.2%	5.80	6.04	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	6	44	220	52	52	3	30%	2.2	17.1%	28.3%	-11.1%	1.9%	8.24	6.29	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	6	44	220	52	52	3	30%	2.2	23.6%	23.6%	0.0%	1.4%	8.24	5.18	—
2024	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	37	0	63	293	65	48	3	0%	1.7	16.4%	19.3%	-2.9%	1.5%	4.29	4.98	—
2024	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	37	0	63	293	65	48	3	0%	1.7	16.4%	19.3%	-2.9%	1.5%	4.29	4.98	—
2024	20	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	37	0	63	293	65	48	3	0%	1.7	22.2%	16.4%	5.8%	1.0%	4.29	3.94	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	57	252	63	26	2	0%	1.3	19.5%	12.0%	7.5%	1.2%	3.34	3.61	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	57	252	63	26	2	0%	1.3	19.5%	12.0%	7.5%	1.2%	3.34	3.61	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	57	252	63	26	2	0%	1.3	25.0%	10.3%	14.7%	0.8%	3.34	2.71	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	63	281	90	47	7	0%	1.4	23.2%	19.9%	3.3%	3.5%	5.03	5.59	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	63	281	90	47	7	0%	1.4	23.2%	19.9%	3.3%	3.5%	5.03	5.59	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	63	281	90	47	7	0%	1.4	32.0%	16.7%	15.3%	2.5%	5.03	3.93	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIA	59	0	62	262	56	47	8	0%	1.1	21.3%	17.9%	3.5%	3.0%	5.57	5.57	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	60	0	63	266	59	41	8	0%	1.1	22.1%	15.4%	6.7%	2.9%	5.28	5.18	-0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	61	0	64	270	61	37	8	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.8%	8.8%	2.9%	5.04	4.93	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	26	0	27	114	25	18	3	0%	1.0	22.1%	15.4%	6.7%	2.9%	5.28	5.18	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	40	0	42	177	40	24	5	0%	1.1	22.6%	13.8%	8.8%	2.9%	5.04	4.93	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	70	294	66	42	9	0%	1.1	22.4%	14.4%	8.0%	2.9%	5.13	4.65	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	121	26	0%	1.1	22.4%	14.4%	8.0%	2.9%	5.13	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		165	16	277	1283	238	245	33	10%	1.7	18.5%	19.1%	-0.6%	2.6%	5.11	5.37	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	12	200	927	172	177	24	10%	1.7	18.5%	19.1%	-0.6%	2.6%	5.11	5.37	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Reynoso (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.57	21.3%	17.9%	3.0%	—	5.05	22.3%	7.7%	127	-0.52	—	—	—
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	94
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	89
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	88
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	88
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	87
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	87
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	87
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	86
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	86
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	86
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	86
Luis Ramirez R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.71	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.97	3.71	104	85
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	85
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	84
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	84
Franklyn German R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.313	5.27	13.1%	0.1%	86	+0.10	3.37	152	84
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	84
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	84
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	84
Jacob Wallace R 2022 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	24.6%	21.6%	3.4%	.237	4.25	23.1%	10.4%	153	-1.34	3.50	279	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	22.0%	15.7%	1.14	5.29
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*