Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 54 | 219 | 57 | 13 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.1% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 4.5% | 2.52 | 4.96 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 54 | 219 | 57 | 13 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 26.0% | 5.9% | 20.1% | 3.7% | 2.52 | 3.64 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 113 | 496 | 91 | 45 | 10 | 100% | 4.9 | 13.4% | 11.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.79 | 4.64 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 113 | 496 | 91 | 45 | 10 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 2.0% | 4.79 | 3.84 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 37 | 0 | 60 | 258 | 45 | 33 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 12.9% | 15.1% | -2.2% | 0.0% | 3.17 | 3.92 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 37 | 0 | 60 | 258 | 45 | 33 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 3.17 | 3.25 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 12 | 12 | 58 | 255 | 59 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 4.8 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 62 | 260 | 31 | 42 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 11.8% | 16.3% | -4.5% | 2.6% | 5.97 | 5.97 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.8% | 16.3% | -4.5% | 2.6% | 5.97 | 5.97 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 119 | 515 | 90 | 67 | 13 | — | — | 17.4% | 13.1% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 5.35 | 5.40 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 38 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.4% | 14.7% | -0.3% | 2.6% | 5.66 | 5.56 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 43 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.0% | 13.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 5.42 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 45 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 5.28 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 45 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 13.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 5.25 | 5.24 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 44 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.9% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.30 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 16 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.4% | 14.7% | -0.3% | 2.6% | 5.66 | 5.56 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 28 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 13.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 5.42 | 5.32 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 36 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 5.28 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 39 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.0% | 13.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 5.25 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 39 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.9% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.30 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 217 | 0 | 228 | 962 | 158 | 132 | 26 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.5% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 5.35 | 4.93 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 139 | 116 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.5% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 5.35 | 4.93 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 82 | 45 | 284 | 1228 | 183 | 139 | 29 | 55% | 3.5 | 14.9% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 4.00 | 4.58 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 32 | 200 | 866 | 129 | 98 | 21 | 55% | 3.5 | 14.9% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 4.00 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sean Hermann (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.97 | 11.8% | 16.3% | 2.6% | — | 5.37 | 15.8% | 1.7% | 191 | -0.60 | — | — | — |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 85 |
| Ted Stuka R 2027 · 5.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.78 | 12.4% | 23.4% | 1.4% | .262 | 6.34 | 15.9% | -13.1% | 41 | +0.56 | 5.51 | 105 | 83 |
| Drew Conover R 2026 · 6.30 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.30 | 15.6% | 29.8% | 1.4% | .272 | 5.34 | 11.7% | -3.6% | 96 | -0.96 | 4.52 | 135 | 83 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 82 |
| Zach Willeman R 2026 · 5.55 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.55 | 10.8% | 15.0% | 2.6% | .296 | 5.10 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 108 | -0.45 | 4.15 | 264 | 81 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 6.06 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.06 | 12.6% | 24.0% | 1.8% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 144 | 79 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 78 |
| Zach Mort R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.14 | 10.7% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .240 | 5.35 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 176 | +0.21 | 5.14 | 237 | 78 |
| LJ Brewster R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.90 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 143 | 78 |
| Tom Reisinger R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.25 | 12.1% | 14.6% | 2.4% | .381 | 6.70 | 10.3% | -5.6% | 47 | +1.45 | 5.25 | 110 | 77 |
| Dawson Netz R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 77 |
| Erling Moreno R 2025 · 6.08 FIP | 22 | SP- | 6.08 | 7.8% | 18.2% | 2.4% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 213 | 77 |
| Boone Whiting R 2028 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.21 | 11.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.78 | 10.9% | 4.8% | 132 | -0.43 | 4.78 | 227 | 77 |
| Kendy Richard R 2024 · 5.98 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.98 | 12.0% | 16.0% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 141 | 77 |
| Wills Montgomerie R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.03 | 19.3% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .275 | 4.55 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 105 | -0.48 | 4.55 | 153 | 76 |
| Ramsey David R 2027 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 76 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 75 |
| Dane Myers R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.39 | 12.2% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 125 | 75 |
| Chance Huff R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.78 | 11.8% | 11.4% | 4.1% | .312 | 5.14 | 15.7% | -0.0% | 151 | -0.64 | 4.35 | 235 | 75 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 63 | 15.5% | 14.3% | 1.03 | 5.48 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |