Andrew Morris

P Minnesota Twins

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

MLBRP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	26	24	133	2.37	2.41	24.5%	5.9%	—	K 19.8% · BB 6.2% · FIP 2.88
2025	23	AAAMIN	21	19	95	4.09	3.62	22.4%	7.0%	—	K 19.2% · BB 6.3% · FIP 3.61
2026	24	MIX2 levels	66	5	81	4.11	3.00	21.2%	7.2%	1.5	K 21.5% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.04
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIN	70	0	73	3.84	3.69	22.4%	6.8%	0.8
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBMIN	84	0	88	3.81	3.74	22.5%	6.8%	0.9
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBMIN	86	0	90	3.83	3.81	22.5%	7.0%	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$3M2031Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs80

K%45

Whiff%34

CompsDavid Phelps (age 25) · Shohei Tomioka (age 25) · Brock Stewart (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9789vR 81

ERA3.84

FIP3.69

K%22.4%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%15.6%

Proj IP73

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL6055

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.4

Whiff%

p3423.0%

p4521.5%

xwOBA vs

p800.283

CH (11%)

CT (23%)

SL (8%)

SI (12%)

CU (1%)

FB-2.1 (57%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$13M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	17	84	357	79	19	4	94%	4.7	16.6%	6.2%	10.4%	1.4%	2.88	3.23	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	17	84	357	79	19	4	94%	4.7	22.1%	5.3%	16.8%	1.1%	2.88	2.52	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	24	133	542	133	32	6	92%	5.1	19.8%	6.2%	13.7%	1.2%	2.37	2.88	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	24	133	542	133	32	6	92%	5.1	19.8%	6.2%	13.7%	1.2%	2.37	2.88	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	24	133	542	133	32	6	92%	5.1	24.5%	5.9%	18.6%	1.1%	2.37	2.41	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	21	19	95	398	89	28	11	90%	4.5	19.2%	6.3%	12.9%	2.4%	4.09	3.61	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	21	19	95	398	89	28	11	90%	4.5	19.2%	6.3%	12.9%	2.4%	4.09	3.61	—
2025	23	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	21	19	95	398	89	28	11	90%	4.5	22.4%	7.0%	15.3%	2.8%	4.09	3.62	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	5	81	349	74	25	5	8%	1.2	21.5%	7.2%	14.3%	1.5%	4.11	3.04	+1.5
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	5	81	349	74	25	5	8%	1.2	21.5%	7.2%	14.3%	1.5%	4.11	3.04	+1.5
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	5	81	349	74	25	5	8%	1.2	21.2%	7.2%	14.0%	1.4%	4.11	3.00	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			64	3	74	321	69	23	5	5%	1.2	21.5%	7.2%	14.3%	1.6%	4.40	3.05	+1.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIN	70	0	73	308	69	21	7	0%	1.0	22.4%	6.8%	15.6%	2.3%	3.84	3.69	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	88	0	92	389	88	27	9	0%	1.0	22.5%	6.8%	15.7%	2.3%	3.80	3.73	+0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	90	0	95	400	90	28	10	0%	1.1	22.5%	7.0%	15.5%	2.4%	3.82	3.80	+0.9
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIN	90	0	95	400	89	29	10	0%	1.1	22.3%	7.1%	15.2%	2.6%	3.88	3.91	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIN	86	0	90	382	83	28	10	0%	1.1	21.7%	7.4%	14.3%	2.7%	4.00	4.08	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIN	81	0	85	359	76	28	11	0%	1.1	21.0%	7.7%	13.3%	2.9%	4.17	4.29	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	84	0	88	372	84	25	9	0%	1.0	22.5%	6.8%	15.7%	2.4%	3.81	3.74	+0.9
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	86	0	90	380	85	26	9	0%	1.0	22.5%	7.0%	15.5%	2.5%	3.83	3.81	+0.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIN	86	0	90	380	85	27	10	0%	1.0	22.3%	7.1%	15.2%	2.6%	3.89	3.92	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIN	82	0	86	363	79	27	10	0%	1.0	21.7%	7.4%	14.3%	2.7%	4.01	4.09	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIN	77	0	81	342	72	26	10	0%	1.1	21.0%	7.7%	13.3%	2.9%	4.18	4.30	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		478	3	508	2156	473	155	53	1%	1.1	22.0%	7.2%	14.8%	2.5%	4.00	3.50	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	1	200	848	186	61	21	1%	1.1	22.0%	7.2%	14.8%	2.5%	4.00	3.50	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		132	65	394	1649	319	106	27	49%	3.0	19.4%	6.4%	12.9%	1.6%	3.24	3.16	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	33	200	837	162	54	14	49%	3.0	19.4%	6.4%	12.9%	1.6%	3.24	3.16	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Morris (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.69	22.4%	6.8%	2.3%	—	3.81	22.4%	15.5%	282	+0.12	—	—	—
David Phelps R 2012 · 3.98 FIP	25	SW	3.98	23.2%	8.7%	3.2%	.250	3.86	18.3%	10.1%	312	-0.12	2.50	672	73
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	71
Brock Stewart R 2017 · 3.82 FIP	25	SW	3.82	23.3%	9.2%	2.8%	.295	5.26	16.6%	7.8%	224	+1.44	1.51	622	71
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	70
Ryan Brown R 2024 · 3.11 FIP	23	SW	3.11	20.3%	8.6%	1.2%	.292	6.78	9.4%	3.8%	34	+3.67	3.11	103	69
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	69
Michael Baird R 2019 · 2.84 FIP	24	SP-	2.84	21.2%	8.3%	0.9%	.273	6.16	21.6%	13.1%	94	+3.32	2.84	132	68
Kevin McCanna R 2019 · 2.70 FIP	25	SW	2.70	22.7%	8.7%	0.8%	.287	5.08	16.5%	13.2%	16	+2.38	2.70	265	68
Jonathan Loáisiga R 2020 · 3.54 FIP	25	SW	3.54	22.0%	6.0%	2.8%	.261	2.90	20.2%	14.1%	136	-0.64	2.30	398	68
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	68
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	68
Reinier Roibal R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	26	SU	3.11	19.1%	4.5%	1.9%	.262	4.37	16.9%	9.8%	35	+1.26	3.11	133	68
Tylor Megill R 2019 · 3.02 FIP	24	SW	3.02	22.2%	10.4%	0.9%	.331	3.91	26.8%	19.7%	177	+0.89	3.02	603	68
Domingo Tapia R 2017 · 3.57 FIP	25	SW	3.57	18.2%	7.6%	1.9%	.344	4.42	15.0%	4.3%	129	+0.85	3.57	395	68
Cole Sands R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP-	4.38	21.3%	8.9%	3.5%	.358	3.04	25.4%	19.1%	196	-1.34	2.28	474	68
Ryan Helsley R 2019 · 4.07 FIP	25	SW	4.07	22.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.279	3.30	31.1%	21.0%	124	-0.77	1.88	703	67
DJ Baxendale R 2016 · 2.88 FIP	25	SW	2.88	17.5%	5.5%	1.0%	.303	3.84	17.7%	10.1%	192	+0.96	2.88	426	67
Connor Sadzeck R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	25	SW	4.46	21.5%	10.3%	3.4%	.357	3.58	24.0%	12.6%	62	-0.88	3.20	549	67
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	67
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	86	22.0%	7.3%	0.94	3.98
Andy McGaffigan ('81-'91, 10 WAR*)	4.2	104	22.6%*	8.2%*	0.87*	3.85*
Collin McHugh ('23)	5.0	90	23.3%	6.7%	0.96	3.72
Tom Johnson ('74-'78, 3 WAR*)	1.4	68	21.7%*	7.8%*	0.86*	3.69*
Don Gross ('55-'60, 4 WAR*)	2.0	80	21.1%*	6.9%*	1.17*	3.95*
Zach McAllister ('23)	3.0	85	21.1%	7.8%	1.07	4.15
Roenis Elías ('22)	2.0	99	19.6%	9.0%	1.02	3.96