Chase Renner — OGILVIE

Chase Renner P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%23.4%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	6	0	7	35	6	8	0	0%	1.2	17.1%	22.9%	-5.7%	0.0%	2.57	4.55	—
2025	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	6	0	7	35	6	8	0	0%	1.2	17.1%	22.9%	-5.7%	0.0%	2.57	4.55	—
2025	21	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	6	0	7	35	6	8	0	0%	1.2	17.1%	22.9%	-5.7%	0.0%	2.57	4.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	15	1	20	91	28	14	5	7%	1.4	23.5%	23.4%	0.1%	10.6%	5.31	9.89	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	15	1	20	91	28	14	5	7%	1.4	23.5%	23.4%	0.1%	10.6%	5.31	9.89	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	MIA	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	100%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2026	22	A RAW	MIA	4	0	7	28	10	2	0	0%	1.7	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	MIA	10	0	13	59	18	12	5	0%	1.3	30.5%	20.3%	10.2%	8.5%	8.53	7.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	20	0	21	87	21	9	3	0%	1.0	24.1%	10.6%	13.6%	3.0%	4.51	4.43	+0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	24.1%	10.6%	13.6%	3.0%	4.51	4.43	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	10	5	1	0%	1.0	24.1%	10.6%	13.6%	3.0%	4.51	4.05	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	98	20	0%	1.1	24.1%	10.6%	13.6%	3.0%	4.51	4.05	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		21	1	27	126	27	29	10	5%	1.3	21.7%	23.2%	-1.5%	7.7%	4.61	8.41	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	7	200	922	200	214	71	5%	1.3	21.7%	23.2%	-1.5%	7.7%	4.61	8.41	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Renner (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	23.4%	11.6%	3.1%	—	4.43	24.1%	13.6%	21	-0.23	—	—	—
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	90
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	88
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.56	249	88
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	86
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	86
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	86
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	86
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	85
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	85
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	84
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	84
Justin Yeager R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	26.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.281	3.96	25.4%	12.6%	103	+0.37	3.32	262	84
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	84
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	84
Donovan Benoit R 2022 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	84
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	84
Jacob Wallace R 2021 · 4.26 FIP	22	SU	4.26	26.6%	13.1%	3.2%	.316	4.77	23.8%	7.0%	167	+0.51	3.50	279	84
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	84