Merritt Beeker — OGILVIE

Merritt Beeker P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 198 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%22.6%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD5050

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	5	0	6	31	7	6	1	0%	1.3	22.6%	19.4%	3.2%	3.2%	11.37	5.42	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	5	0	6	31	7	6	1	0%	1.3	22.6%	19.4%	3.2%	3.2%	11.37	5.42	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	5	0	6	31	7	6	1	0%	1.3	22.6%	19.4%	3.2%	3.2%	11.37	5.78	—
2025	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	38	1	63	258	78	28	2	3%	1.7	22.4%	12.8%	9.6%	1.0%	1.85	3.36	—
2025	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	38	1	63	258	78	28	2	3%	1.7	22.4%	12.8%	9.6%	1.0%	1.85	3.36	—
2025	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	38	1	63	258	78	28	2	3%	1.7	30.2%	10.9%	19.4%	0.8%	1.85	2.37	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	11	1	17	81	17	8	2	9%	1.6	15.5%	11.7%	3.9%	3.2%	5.19	5.03	—
YTD	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	11	1	17	81	17	8	2	9%	1.6	15.5%	11.7%	3.9%	3.2%	5.19	5.03	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	WSH	11	1	17	81	17	8	2	9%	1.6	21.0%	9.9%	11.1%	2.5%	5.19	3.93	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	22	5	3	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.1%	9.5%	2.7%	4.73	4.73	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	23	103	22	11	3	—	—	21.3%	10.6%	10.8%	2.5%	5.09	4.96	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	65	0	68	287	66	34	8	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	2.8%	4.60	4.54	+0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	65	0	68	287	67	33	8	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.6%	11.7%	2.8%	4.53	4.50	+0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	64	0	67	283	66	33	8	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.5%	11.7%	2.8%	4.53	4.53	+0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	62	0	65	274	63	32	8	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.6%	11.5%	2.9%	4.58	4.61	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	28	0	29	122	28	14	3	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	2.8%	4.60	4.54	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	43	0	45	190	44	22	5	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.6%	11.7%	2.8%	4.53	4.50	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	50	0	52	220	51	25	6	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.5%	11.7%	2.8%	4.53	4.53	+0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	52	0	55	232	54	27	7	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.6%	11.5%	2.9%	4.58	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	762	177	88	22	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	2.8%	4.56	4.17	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	196	97	24	0%	1.1	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	2.8%	4.56	4.17	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		54	2	87	370	77	48	6	4%	1.6	20.9%	13.1%	7.8%	1.6%	3.21	3.90	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	5	200	851	178	111	14	4%	1.6	20.9%	13.1%	7.8%	1.6%	3.21	3.90	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Merritt Beeker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	22.6%	13.1%	2.7%	—	4.52	23.2%	11.5%	203	-0.21	—	—	—
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	91
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	89
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	88
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	88
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	88
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	88
Ty Damron L 2018 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	24.3%	14.0%	2.6%	.358	4.30	19.7%	10.3%	134	+0.03	3.29	346	87
Chazz Martinez L 2023 · 3.76 FIP	23	SU	3.76	22.2%	12.7%	1.7%	.361	3.43	20.5%	7.7%	135	-0.33	3.09	199	87
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	86
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	86
Gabriel Sequeira L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	19.3%	13.1%	2.7%	.294	3.57	21.4%	10.0%	63	-1.03	2.62	160	86
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	85
Fred Schlichtholz L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.368	4.13	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.10	3.49	175	85
Kelly Secrest L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	18.6%	13.7%	2.1%	.267	3.47	20.8%	10.4%	38	-0.95	3.11	151	85
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	85
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	85
John Beller L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	21.6%	14.2%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	170	85
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	85
Jared Tobey L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.320	5.43	22.4%	8.2%	73	+1.44	3.99	158	85
Hunter Schryver L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	19.2%	11.2%	1.6%	.335	4.47	19.5%	6.0%	80	+0.71	3.58	206	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	23.0%	11.9%	1.09	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58