Greysen Carter — OGILVIE

Greysen Carter P Tampa Tarpons

+0.0 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 237 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.3 · 2028

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.3%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%7.8%

IP55

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2028

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	A	Tampa Tarpons	15	13	55	273	49	67	1	12.8%	30.0%	0.5%	5.43	6.12	-0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A	Tampa Tarpons	3	0	4	27	6	10	1	—	—	—	13.50	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	NYY	55	—	55	231	49	31	6	21.3%	13.5%	2.8%	4.91	4.91	+0.0
2026 Total	23	MLB	NYY	—	—	59	258	55	41	7	21.4%	16.0%	2.9%	5.50	4.58	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	NYY	56	—	56	237	52	28	7	22.1%	12.0%	2.8%	4.73	4.66	+0.2
2028	25	MLB	NYY	57	—	57	240	54	27	7	22.5%	11.1%	2.8%	4.58	4.50	+0.3
2029	26	MLB	NYY	57	—	57	240	55	26	7	22.8%	11.0%	2.8%	4.51	4.47	+0.3
2030	27	MLB	NYY	56	—	56	238	54	26	7	22.8%	10.9%	2.8%	4.49	4.47	+0.3
2031	28	MLB	NYY	56	—	56	235	53	26	7	22.8%	11.0%	2.8%	4.50	4.50	+0.3
2032	29	MLB	NYY	54	—	54	229	52	25	7	22.7%	11.1%	2.9%	4.53	4.55	+0.2
2033	30	MLB	NYY	53	—	53	223	50	25	7	22.4%	11.2%	2.9%	4.58	4.61	+0.2
2034	31	MLB	NYY	51	—	51	215	48	24	6	22.2%	11.3%	3.0%	4.64	4.68	+0.2
2035	32	MLB	NYY	49	—	49	206	45	24	6	21.9%	11.4%	3.1%	4.72	4.77	+0.1
2036	33	MLB	NYY	47	—	47	197	43	23	6	21.6%	11.6%	3.2%	4.81	4.87	+0.0
2037	34	MLB	NYY	44	—	44	187	40	22	6	21.3%	11.8%	3.3%	4.91	4.98	-0.0
2038	35	MLB	NYY	42	—	42	176	37	21	6	20.9%	12.0%	3.4%	5.02	5.10	-0.1
2039	36	MLB	NYY	39	—	39	165	34	20	6	20.5%	12.3%	3.5%	5.15	5.23	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			18	13	59	300	41	92	2	13.6%	30.6%	0.8%	5.98	6.28	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—			61	44	200	1023	140	314	7	13.6%	30.6%	0.8%	5.98	6.28	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Greysen Carter (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	21.3%	13.5%	2.8%	—	4.54	22.5%	11.1%	170	-0.37	—	—	—
Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SW	4.51	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.34	3.86	242	98
Max Alba R 2027 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	20.6%	12.6%	2.8%	.290	4.91	17.8%	11.6%	162	+0.41	4.50	217	94
Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	23	SW	4.10	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.90	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.10	168	94
Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.24	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.26	3.32	181	93
Bailey Dees R 2026 · 4.27 FIP	23	SW	4.27	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.37	21.4%	9.6%	278	+0.10	3.41	330	93
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2027 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.72	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.14	4.04	404	92
William Kempner R 2025 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	92
Craig Schlitter R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	24	SW	4.61	22.7%	15.4%	2.7%	.298	4.70	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.09	4.23	222	92
Brandon Johnson R 2027 · 4.91 FIP	24	SW	4.91	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.68	22.3%	12.1%	127	-0.23	3.38	188	91
Jhonny Polanco R 2026 · 4.74 FIP	23	SW	4.74	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.09	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.65	4.09	116	91
Alaska Abney R 2026 · 4.94 FIP	23	SW	4.94	18.8%	13.8%	3.1%	.301	3.44	18.6%	10.2%	76	-1.50	3.36	178	91
Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	23	SW	4.69	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.73	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.96	3.73	104	91
Aaron Kurcz R 2027 · 4.00 FIP	24	SW	4.00	22.4%	13.6%	2.0%	.331	4.03	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.03	3.31	213	91
Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	23	SW	4.56	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.78	16.2%	5.7%	316	+0.22	3.98	371	90
Brett Standlee R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	23	SW	4.11	19.7%	11.1%	2.3%	.322	4.48	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.37	4.11	128	90
Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SW	3.95	21.9%	11.5%	2.3%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.20	3.30	218	89
Josh Harlow R 2026 · 5.24 FIP	23	SW	5.24	18.5%	13.5%	3.6%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.49	5.24	107	89
Jarret Whorff R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	3.96	20.3%	11.1%	143	-0.28	3.84	206	89
Pat Light R 2027 · 4.34 FIP	24	SW	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.39	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.05	4.15	172	89
Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.74	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.64	4.10	105	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.2	$1M	+$0.6M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$1M