Greysen Carter
P
Tampa Tarpons
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 237 lbs
A
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.92
FIP4.92
K%21.3%
BB%13.5%
K-BB%7.8%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 13 | 55 | 273 | 49 | 67 | 1 | 87% | 3.6 | 12.8% | 30.0% | -17.2% | 0.7% | 5.43 | 6.20 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 13 | 55 | 273 | 49 | 67 | 1 | 87% | 3.6 | 17.9% | 24.5% | -6.6% | 0.4% | 5.43 | 5.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 21 | 0 | 34 | 156 | 38 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.0% | 22.7% | -4.7% | 1.7% | 4.24 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYY | 36 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 34 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 13.5% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.3% | 13.5% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 4.92 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 72 | 318 | 72 | 52 | 7 | — | — | 22.8% | 16.3% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 4.60 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 37 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 38 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 38 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 37 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 38 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYY | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 135 | 0 | 142 | 599 | 136 | 67 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.16 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 94 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 36 | 13 | 89 | 429 | 63 | 117 | 5 | 36% | 2.5 | 14.7% | 27.3% | -12.7% | 1.0% | 4.97 | 5.90 | -0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 81 | 29 | 200 | 968 | 142 | 264 | 10 | 36% | 2.5 | 14.7% | 27.3% | -12.7% | 1.0% | 4.97 | 5.90 | -1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Greysen Carter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 21.3% | 13.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.55 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 119 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.33 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.09 | 3.96 | 242 | 89 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .287 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 169 | +0.28 | 3.81 | 233 | 85 |
| Trent Fennell R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .328 | 5.38 | 19.4% | 3.5% | 107 | +1.50 | 3.88 | 163 | 84 |
| Jhonny Polanco R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.92 | 21.3% | 5.7% | 48 | -0.84 | 3.92 | 116 | 84 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 83 |
| Corey Black R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.14 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .310 | 3.60 | 22.1% | 6.0% | 53 | -0.54 | 3.60 | 139 | 83 |
| Blake Holub R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 21.7% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.90 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 156 | -0.41 | 3.31 | 236 | 83 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.36 | 20.3% | 15.1% | 1.9% | .333 | 4.38 | 16.0% | 5.7% | 259 | +0.02 | 3.41 | 390 | 83 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .341 | 4.64 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.30 | 3.76 | 467 | 82 |
| Luis Romero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .367 | 4.16 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.34 | 3.99 | 293 | 82 |
| Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.40 | 18.8% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .330 | 3.82 | 25.6% | 15.0% | 145 | -0.58 | 2.52 | 275 | 81 |
| Junior Rincon R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.93 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .318 | 3.77 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 82 | -1.16 | 3.50 | 113 | 81 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 81 |
| Joey Matulovich R 2025 · 5.48 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.48 | 19.8% | 14.6% | 4.0% | .378 | 5.06 | 20.5% | 8.9% | 133 | -0.42 | 3.22 | 201 | 80 |
| William Kempner R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .277 | 3.32 | 29.2% | 14.5% | 112 | -0.62 | 3.29 | 173 | 80 |
| Joan Gregorio R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .269 | 4.23 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 208 | -0.33 | 3.60 | 301 | 80 |
| Grant Ford R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 80 |
| Blake Quinn R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .328 | 4.28 | 17.1% | 3.3% | 48 | -1.04 | 4.28 | 122 | 79 |
| Sam Ryan R 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 16.4% | 14.7% | 1.6% | .328 | 3.76 | 13.7% | 2.9% | 49 | -0.71 | 3.76 | 178 | 79 |
| Heath Slatton R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 17.9% | 12.9% | 4.2% | .382 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.46 | 120 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 39 | 22.4% | 11.6% | 1.09 | 4.64 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |