Greysen Carter — OGILVIE

Greysen Carter P Tampa Tarpons

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 237 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 165157vR 149

ERA6.95

FIP6.95

K%17.3%

BB%26.9%

K-BB%-9.6%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	55	273	49	67	1	87%	3.6	12.8%	30.0%	-17.2%	0.6%	5.43	6.13	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	55	273	49	67	1	87%	3.6	12.8%	30.0%	-17.2%	0.6%	5.43	6.13	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	13	55	273	49	67	1	87%	3.6	17.9%	24.5%	-6.6%	0.4%	5.43	5.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	33	0	52	233	59	43	4	0%	1.6	18.7%	21.8%	-3.0%	2.2%	4.35	5.50	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	33	0	52	233	59	43	4	0%	1.6	18.7%	21.8%	-3.0%	2.2%	4.35	5.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	NYY	33	0	52	233	59	43	4	0%	1.6	25.3%	18.5%	6.9%	1.7%	4.35	4.24	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYY	49	0	52	219	42	48	6	0%	1.1	19.0%	21.9%	-2.9%	2.8%	6.38	6.17	-0.9
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	50	0	52	222	44	41	6	0%	1.1	20.0%	18.6%	1.4%	2.8%	5.90	5.67	-0.6
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYY	21	0	22	93	18	20	3	0%	1.0	19.0%	21.9%	-2.9%	2.8%	6.38	6.17	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	33	0	35	148	30	27	4	0%	1.1	20.0%	18.6%	1.4%	2.8%	5.90	5.67	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	0	57	241	47	48	7	0%	1.1	19.6%	19.9%	-0.3%	2.8%	6.09	5.48	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	168	25	0%	1.1	19.6%	19.9%	-0.3%	2.8%	6.09	5.48	-2.2
Career	—	MLE		48	13	106	506	78	133	7	27%	2.2	15.5%	26.2%	-10.7%	1.3%	4.91	5.84	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	24	200	952	148	249	13	27%	2.2	15.5%	26.2%	-10.7%	1.3%	4.91	5.84	-3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Greysen Carter (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.95	17.3%	26.9%	2.8%	—	5.92	19.5%	-0.7%	104	-1.03	—	—	—
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	88
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	84
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	78
Alexis Liebano R 2023 · 6.15 FIP	20	SU	6.15	11.8%	24.2%	1.8%	.312	6.00	17.7%	3.8%	112	-0.15	4.80	142	77
Roman Phansalkar R 2022 · 6.38 FIP	24	SU	6.38	13.5%	18.4%	3.8%	.245	4.77	17.4%	4.0%	147	-1.61	4.33	164	76
Audry Lugo R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	23	SU	5.76	13.7%	16.3%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	113	76
Dallas Woolfolk R 2021 · 6.62 FIP	24	SU	6.62	12.9%	21.9%	3.3%	.324	5.12	14.0%	0.7%	50	-1.50	5.12	100	76
Ismael Maldonado R 2018 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	15.7%	18.2%	3.4%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	5.87	119	76
Jeffrey Rosa R 2017 · 6.08 FIP	22	SU	6.08	14.2%	24.3%	2.0%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	123	75
Jake Gozzo R 2021 · 7.10 FIP	24	SU	7.10	14.3%	30.2%	2.5%	.200	5.35	15.8%	-0.7%	129	-1.75	4.32	162	75
Elian Rodriguez R 2019 · 7.63 FIP	22	SW	7.63	14.2%	25.0%	4.7%	.388	5.60	18.3%	-3.6%	40	-2.03	5.60	109	75
Johnathan Lavallee R 2023 · 6.17 FIP	23	SU	6.17	17.1%	18.6%	3.9%	.356	4.23	22.8%	9.6%	144	-1.94	3.72	210	74
Mason Denaburg R 2023 · 7.92 FIP	23	SU	7.92	11.9%	28.1%	4.1%	.314	4.48	13.9%	-2.1%	56	-3.44	4.48	151	74
Eury Rosado R 2023 · 6.56 FIP	22	SW	6.56	17.8%	18.2%	4.8%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	109	74
Ramon Sanchez R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	21	SU	6.06	14.8%	23.6%	2.2%	.200	5.00	16.9%	-6.3%	70	-1.06	3.36	103	74
German Taveras R 2016 · 6.41 FIP	23	SU	6.41	10.9%	15.7%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	108	74
Dan Hammer R 2021 · 6.62 FIP	23	SU	6.62	13.0%	36.5%	0.0%	.290	5.28	21.3%	1.3%	147	-1.34	3.81	257	74
Alec Kenilvort R 2016 · 6.44 FIP	23	SU	6.44	15.1%	17.0%	4.5%	.333	3.97	18.3%	9.1%	85	-2.47	2.97	109	74
Tyler Morgan R 2023 · 6.56 FIP	22	SU	6.56	13.2%	16.2%	4.6%	.190	4.85	16.2%	6.1%	99	-1.71	4.73	114	74
Edgar Navarro R 2021 · 6.23 FIP	23	SU	6.23	13.3%	17.7%	3.7%	.297	4.20	18.7%	2.1%	87	-2.03	3.30	244	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	18.9%	22.0%	1.07	6.36
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99