Tommy Molsky

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 179 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	A+KC	2	3	9.00	7.10	14.3%	7.1%	—	K 14.3% · BB 7.1% · FIP 6.72
2025	22	A+KC	40	62	3.03	2.33	28.0%	11.0%	—	K 21.6% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.14
2026	23	MIX2 levels	46	56	7.99	6.17	19.7%	15.2%	—	K 14.9% · BB 18.4% · FIP 7.28
2027PROJ	24	MLBKC	54	57	5.91	5.91	17.3%	16.1%	-0.8
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBKC	24	25	5.59	5.49	18.8%	14.0%	-0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBKC	37	39	5.41	5.35	19.7%	13.6%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control40Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsCody Scroggins (age 24) · Brett Lockwood (age 24) · Jonathan Teaney (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.91

FIP5.91

K%17.3%

BB%16.1%

K-BB%1.2%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	2	0	3	14	2	1	1	0%	1.5	14.3%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	9.00	6.72	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	2	0	3	14	2	1	1	0%	1.5	14.3%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	9.00	6.72	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	2	0	3	14	2	1	1	0%	1.5	14.3%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	9.00	7.10	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	40	0	62	264	74	29	1	0%	1.6	21.6%	12.6%	9.0%	0.5%	3.03	3.14	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	40	0	62	264	74	29	1	0%	1.6	21.6%	12.6%	9.0%	0.5%	3.03	3.14	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	40	0	62	264	74	29	1	0%	1.6	28.0%	11.0%	17.0%	0.4%	3.03	2.33	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	56	269	53	41	12	0%	1.2	14.9%	18.4%	-3.5%	5.7%	7.99	7.28	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	56	269	53	41	12	0%	1.2	14.9%	18.4%	-3.5%	5.7%	7.99	7.28	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	56	269	53	41	12	0%	1.2	19.7%	15.2%	4.5%	4.5%	7.99	6.17	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	KC	54	0	57	241	42	39	8	0%	1.1	17.3%	16.1%	1.2%	3.4%	5.91	5.91	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	55	0	58	244	46	34	8	0%	1.1	18.8%	14.0%	4.8%	3.3%	5.59	5.49	-0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	55	0	58	244	48	33	8	0%	1.1	19.7%	13.6%	6.0%	3.3%	5.41	5.35	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	24	0	25	106	20	15	3	0%	1.0	18.8%	14.0%	4.8%	3.3%	5.59	5.49	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	37	0	39	165	32	22	5	0%	1.1	19.7%	13.6%	6.0%	3.3%	5.41	5.35	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	0	64	270	52	37	9	0%	1.0	19.3%	13.8%	5.5%	3.3%	5.48	5.02	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	116	28	0%	1.1	19.3%	13.8%	5.5%	3.3%	5.48	5.02	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		88	0	122	547	99	84	18	0%	1.4	18.1%	15.3%	2.8%	3.2%	5.47	5.27	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	0	200	899	163	138	29	0%	1.4	18.1%	15.3%	2.8%	3.2%	5.47	5.27	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tommy Molsky (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.91	17.3%	16.1%	3.4%	—	5.42	19.2%	5.4%	116	-0.49	—	—	—
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	94
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	91
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	91
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	88
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	87
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	87
Morgan McSweeney R 2022 · 5.16 FIP	24	SU	5.16	18.0%	13.9%	3.3%	.278	4.31	16.6%	6.6%	107	-0.85	3.20	213	86
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	86
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	85
Bryce McGowan R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	24	SU	5.11	19.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.304	3.71	18.8%	6.7%	55	-1.40	3.71	178	85
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	85
Luke Jackson R 2016 · 5.62 FIP	24	SU	5.62	19.5%	15.3%	4.1%	.327	3.21	25.8%	16.8%	210	-2.41	2.67	580	85
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	84
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	84
Michael Blazek R 2013 · 5.52 FIP	24	SU	5.52	16.7%	15.5%	3.4%	.241	3.81	19.8%	10.3%	97	-1.71	2.99	238	84
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	84
Michael Mertz R 2018 · 5.18 FIP	24	SU	5.18	16.1%	13.9%	3.0%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	133	84
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	84
Jesus Colome R 2002 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	16.2%	13.7%	2.9%	.365	4.29	19.4%	9.1%	161	-0.80	3.55	426	83
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	18.6%	14.6%	1.29	5.64
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*