Carter Mathison — OGILVIE

Carter MathisonOF Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 23 L/L 6'1" / 215 lbs A+ HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION293 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†35

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%44

BB%11

BABIP219

ISO103

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	44	29	6	1	0	0	11	11	4	6	0	207	477	241	719	34	333	25	25	373	139	+2	+1	—	—	+1	0.4
2025	22	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	269	225	45	8	1	7	32	94	7	9	1	200	317	338	655	138	297	35	12	298	88	-4	+1	—	—	+6	0.3
2025	22	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	16	11	2	1	0	0	3	5	2	2	0	182	438	273	710	91	333	31	19	360	129	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	44	32	5	1	0	0	8	16	4	6	0	156	386	188	574	31	302	36	18	298	88	-1	+1	—	—	+1	0.2
2025	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	269	233	33	6	1	5	25	125	7	9	1	142	245	240	486	99	254	46	9	224	38	-20	+1	—	—	+6	-1.3
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	16	12	2	1	0	0	2	7	2	2	0	167	375	250	625	83	254	44	12	241	49	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2024	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	44	32	5	1	0	0	8	16	4	6	0	156	386	188	574	31	312	36	18	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	44	29	6	1	0	0	11	11	4	6	0	207	477	241	719	34	333	25	25	373	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	285	245	35	7	1	5	27	133	9	11	1	143	253	241	493	98	270	47	9	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	285	236	47	9	1	7	35	99	9	11	1	199	324	335	659	136	299	35	12	301	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	44	32	5	1	0	0	8	16	4	6	0	156	386	188	574	31	302	36	18	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	285	247	35	7	1	5	27	133	9	11	1	142	253	239	492	97	254	47	9	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	44	32	5	1	0	0	8	16	4	6	0	156	386	188	574	31	302	36	18	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	285	247	35	7	1	5	27	133	9	11	1	142	253	239	492	97	254	47	9	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	PHI	—	293	259	29	3	1	8	23	147	6	26	1	112	201	224	425	112	200	50	8	190	15	-30	+5	+0	-2	+6	-2.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ RAW	PHI	—	293	248	40	4	1	12	34	110	6	26	1	161	278	331	608	169	220	38	12	275	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A+ MLE	PHI	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		217	44	11	221	35	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
TOT	23	A+ MLE	PHI	—	302	267	30	3	1	8	24	151	6	26	1	112	202	221	423	109	202	50	8	191	15	-30	+5	+0	-2	+7	-2.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PHI	30%	332	295	45	8	1	8	28	128	6	13	1	153	240	268	508	115	228	39	8	234	44	-22	+2	+0	-2	+7	-1.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	PHI	30%	101	90	14	2	0	3	8	39	2	4	0	156	240	278	518	122	230	39	8	226	44	-7	+1	+0	-1	+2	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	101	90	14	2	0	3	8	39	2	4	0	156	240	278	518	122	224	39	8	226	45	-7	+1	+0	-1	+2	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	90	13	0	19	51	251	13	26	0	155	239	276	515	121	225	39	8	226	45	-43	+5	+0	-4	+14	-2.8
Career	—	MLE		—	670	580	86	16	2	13	64	281	19	30	2	148	255	250	505	102	250	42	10	234	45	-23	+2	+0	-2	+7	-1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	563	84	16	2	13	62	273	18	29	2	149	255	254	509	105	251	42	10	234	45	-43	+4	+0	-4	+14	-3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carter Mathison (OGILVIE)	23	20	35	50	45	138/227/242	104	217	6	15	41%	8%	35	-1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jacob Wetzel 2023 · A	23	39→34	44→45	49→50	45	195/276/305	110	270	12	10	31%	8%	67	-1.1	191/265/303	112	284	10	13	34%	8%	61	-1.5	178/252/295	117	273	8	16	35%	8%	53	-1.1
✕Jacob Pearson 2021 · A	23	40→39	39→40	50	43	196/251/285	90	265	7	12	28%	7%	51	-2.2	189/252/285	96	262	8	15	29%	7%	52	-2.2	168/237/260	92	235	8	19	30%	7%	39	-1.2
✕Stefan Sabol 2015 · A	23	33→42	43→40	50	42	171/241/283	112	258	10	12	36%	8%	48	-2.5	196/265/292	96	313	8	9	37%	8%	59	-1.7	193/266/277	84	311	7	7	37%	8%	54	-1.2
✕Tyler Miller 2023 · A	23	36→28	44→45	53→50	34	187/238/294	107	291	13	13	40%	5%	49	-2.4	195/239/300	105	274	11	11	32%	5%	50	-2.3	188/231/292	103	252	9	9	29%	5%	44	-1.6
✕Francisco Del Valle 2022 · A	23	35→28	44→45	44→40	43	181/258/299	118	261	12	5	34%	8%	59	-1.7	199/255/302	103	281	10	7	31%	6%	57	-1.8	162/182/213	51	217	6	4	28%	2%	5	-0.9
✕Cam Gibson 2017 · A	23	37→41	41→45	53→55	40	183/242/278	94	269	8	17	34%	7%	47	-2.6	198/260/312	114	273	10	17	29%	7%	61	-1.5	194/259/307	113	262	9	19	28%	7%	58	-1.3
✕Mike Peabody 2023 · A	24	36	43→45	47→50	36	183/253/291	109	286	12	12	38%	6%	55	-1.9	197/264/307	110	291	11	12	35%	6%	62	-1.4	178/246/285	108	255	13	12	34%	5%	49	-1.1
✕Ethan Wilson 2023 · AA	23	39	40→45	50	38	195/235/287	91	258	8	16	28%	4%	45	-2.7	199/242/313	114	261	12	13	28%	5%	55	-2.0	189/234/311	122	243	14	12	28%	5%	50	-1.6
✕Evan Chambers 2012 · A	23	38→37	43→40	47→50	47	187/278/293	106	270	10	17	32%	10%	65	-1.2	184/269/264	80	300	6	13	37%	10%	55	-2.0	146/242/188	42	259	2	14	40%	11%	28	-2.2
✕Cody Morissette 2023 · A	23	37→30	46→45	45→55	41	194/258/316	122	265	14	5	32%	7%	62	-1.4	182/235/295	113	244	13	11	30%	6%	49	-2.4	182/237/299	117	239	14	19	29%	6%	48	-1.4
✕Shard Munroe 2019 · A	23	42	42→40	50	43	204/267/306	102	286	9	15	31%	7%	63	-1.4	191/262/288	97	295	8	11	35%	8%	57	-1.8	137/227/224	88	214	8	9	37%	10%	30	-1.4
✕Michel Triana 2023 · A	23	35→26	45	49→50	35	177/243/296	119	290	12	9	41%	6%	52	-2.2	179/241/280	101	293	9	9	39%	7%	47	-2.5	106/170/166	60	183	3	6	41%	7%	-7	-1.8
✕Chris Ellison 2012 · A	23	40→42	41→40	47→50	39	196/252/292	97	292	8	12	34%	7%	53	-2.1	203/254/278	75	284	5	7	28%	6%	51	-2.3	202/250/273	71	273	4	6	26%	5%	47	-2.7
✕Jordan Pearce 2019 · A	23	39→35	39→40	46→40	48	191/262/272	81	255	7	3	27%	9%	53	-2.1	194/277/276	82	267	7	5	28%	9%	60	-1.6	168/270/232	64	232	6	3	27%	10%	47	-1.6
✕Mitchell Hansen 2018 · A	22	40→36	44→45	51→50	39	200/248/314	115	280	11	10	32%	6%	57	-1.8	194/243/294	100	292	8	9	34%	6%	51	-2.3	160/203/246	86	252	4	8	37%	4%	22	-1.9
✕Pat Porter 2017 · A	24	31	43→45	47→45	37	167/234/276	110	252	11	7	37%	6%	44	-2.8	191/252/289	98	290	9	8	35%	6%	53	-2.1	175/236/244	69	267	7	5	35%	6%	35	-1.2
✕Brandon Dulin 2016 · A	23	37→30	44→45	49→40	36	191/241/311	120	263	12	5	32%	4%	54	-2.0	198/249/317	119	281	14	3	34%	5%	59	-1.7	186/239/304	118	261	16	0	34%	5%	49	-1.5
✕Yasel Antuna 2023 · AA	23	37→35	43→45	48→50	48	187/270/293	106	259	11	14	30%	10%	61	-1.5	189/270/286	97	275	9	13	32%	9%	59	-1.6	143/232/224	81	211	7	12	33%	10%	31	-1.5
✕Nick Decker 2023 · A	23	35	43→45	49→50	38	166/251/270	104	307	11	11	46%	9%	50	-2.3	167/240/284	117	317	12	13	47%	8%	49	-2.4	137/210/261	124	256	13	14	49%	7%	30	-1.4
✕D.J. Wilson 2019 · A	22	37	41→50	50	39	183/242/281	98	279	7	13	36%	7%	47	-2.5	183/249/280	97	308	9	14	40%	8%	51	-2.3	104/190/192	88	178	12	21	47%	9%	9	-1.5