Willy Montero
CF Tampa Tarpons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ANYY | 486 | .244/.315/.355 | 7 | 15 | 45 | — | .199/.253/.289 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROKNYY | 219 | .261/.312/.310 | 1 | 3 | 27 | — | .198/.239/.242 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/ANYY | 397 | .270/.340/.441 | 13 | 25 | 61 | — | .207/.259/.335 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBNYY | 507 | .211/.261/.312 | 9 | 13 | 60 | -0.3 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBNYY | 120 | .216/.268/.331 | 3 | 3 | 66 | -0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBNYY | 188 | .220/.273/.341 | 4 | 5 | 70 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 16 | ROK | DSL Yankees 2 | — | 61 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 191 | 333 | 213 | 546 | 21 | 273 | 30 | 11 | 256 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 235 | 191 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 61 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 262 | 397 | 382 | 780 | 120 | 362 | 26 | 15 | 359 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Yankees | — | 203 | 181 | 60 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 36 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 331 | 395 | 436 | 831 | 105 | 397 | 18 | 8 | 369 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 486 | 434 | 106 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 103 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 244 | 315 | 355 | 670 | 111 | 299 | 21 | 8 | 300 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 185 | 170 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 42 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 271 | 326 | 329 | 655 | 59 | 352 | 23 | 8 | 298 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | — | 34 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 235 | 212 | 447 | 259 | 18 | 3 | 207 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 74 | 68 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 235 | 288 | 309 | 596 | 74 | 312 | 27 | 5 | 269 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 323 | 288 | 80 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 83 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 278 | 352 | 472 | 824 | 194 | 349 | 26 | 10 | 363 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees 2 | — | 61 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 143 | 263 | 163 | 426 | 20 | 183 | 38 | 8 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 235 | 201 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 76 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 164 | 282 | 229 | 511 | 65 | 242 | 32 | 11 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 203 | 187 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 55 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 246 | 295 | 316 | 611 | 70 | 322 | 27 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 486 | 447 | 89 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 146 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 199 | 253 | 289 | 541 | 89 | 265 | 30 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 185 | 174 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 57 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 207 | 250 | 259 | 509 | 52 | 290 | 31 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 34 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 152 | 176 | 152 | 328 | 198 | 26 | 3 | 139 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 74 | 70 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 171 | 205 | 229 | 434 | 57 | 261 | 35 | 3 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 323 | 298 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 113 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 215 | 271 | 359 | 630 | 144 | 302 | 35 | 7 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees 2 | — | 61 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 143 | 263 | 163 | 426 | 20 | 233 | 38 | 8 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 16 | ROK RAW | DSL Yankees 2 | — | 61 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 191 | 333 | 213 | 546 | 21 | 273 | 30 | 11 | 256 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 235 | 201 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 76 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 164 | 282 | 229 | 511 | 65 | 250 | 32 | 11 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 235 | 191 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 61 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 262 | 397 | 382 | 780 | 120 | 362 | 26 | 15 | 359 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 203 | 187 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 55 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 246 | 295 | 316 | 611 | 70 | 336 | 27 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Yankees | — | 203 | 181 | 60 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 36 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 331 | 395 | 436 | 831 | 105 | 397 | 18 | 8 | 369 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 486 | 447 | 89 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 146 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 199 | 253 | 289 | 541 | 89 | 275 | 30 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Tampa Tarpons | — | 486 | 434 | 106 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 103 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 244 | 315 | 355 | 670 | 111 | 299 | 21 | 8 | 300 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 219 | 207 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 66 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 198 | 239 | 242 | 480 | 43 | 284 | 30 | 5 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 219 | 203 | 53 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 48 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 261 | 312 | 310 | 622 | 49 | 335 | 22 | 7 | 284 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 397 | 367 | 76 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 139 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 207 | 261 | 335 | 597 | 128 | 299 | 35 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 397 | 356 | 96 | 18 | 2 | 13 | 35 | 103 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 270 | 340 | 441 | 781 | 171 | 342 | 26 | 9 | 345 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees 2 | — | 61 | 53 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 132 | 263 | 151 | 414 | 19 | 183 | 38 | 8 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Yankees | — | 235 | 200 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 76 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 165 | 282 | 230 | 512 | 65 | 242 | 32 | 11 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 203 | 188 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 55 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 245 | 295 | 314 | 609 | 69 | 322 | 27 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 486 | 451 | 89 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 146 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 197 | 253 | 286 | 539 | 89 | 265 | 30 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 219 | 206 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 66 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 199 | 239 | 243 | 481 | 44 | 276 | 30 | 5 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 397 | 367 | 76 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 139 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 207 | 261 | 335 | 597 | 128 | 294 | 35 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 486 | 451 | 89 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 146 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 197 | 253 | 286 | 539 | 89 | 265 | 30 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 219 | 206 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 66 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 199 | 239 | 243 | 481 | 44 | 276 | 30 | 5 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 397 | 367 | 76 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 139 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 207 | 261 | 335 | 597 | 128 | 294 | 35 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | NYY | 0% | 507 | 470 | 100 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 152 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 211 | 261 | 312 | 573 | 102 | 288 | 30 | 6 | 257 | 60 | -24 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +11 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | NYY | 34% | 349 | 323 | 70 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 102 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 215 | 267 | 326 | 594 | 111 | 289 | 29 | 6 | 266 | 66 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | NYY | 46% | 408 | 377 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 116 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 219 | 272 | 335 | 608 | 117 | 290 | 28 | 6 | 272 | 70 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +9 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | NYY | 52% | 441 | 407 | 90 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 124 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 221 | 276 | 341 | 617 | 120 | 290 | 28 | 6 | 276 | 73 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | NYY | 54% | 459 | 423 | 94 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 128 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 222 | 278 | 344 | 622 | 122 | 290 | 28 | 7 | 278 | 75 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | NYY | 54% | 463 | 426 | 94 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 128 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 222 | 279 | 345 | 624 | 123 | 289 | 28 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | NYY | 54% | 462 | 425 | 94 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 129 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 220 | 277 | 341 | 618 | 120 | 289 | 28 | 7 | 277 | 73 | -15 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +10 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | NYY | 58% | 453 | 417 | 91 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 128 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 218 | 275 | 335 | 609 | 117 | 287 | 28 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -16 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +10 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | NYY | 34% | 120 | 111 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 216 | 268 | 331 | 599 | 115 | 289 | 29 | 6 | 268 | 66 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | NYY | 46% | 188 | 173 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 54 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 220 | 273 | 341 | 614 | 121 | 290 | 29 | 6 | 275 | 70 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | NYY | 52% | 228 | 210 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 64 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 222 | 277 | 347 | 624 | 125 | 290 | 28 | 7 | 279 | 73 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | NYY | 54% | 249 | 229 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 69 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 223 | 279 | 350 | 629 | 127 | 290 | 28 | 6 | 281 | 75 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | NYY | 54% | 251 | 230 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 70 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 223 | 280 | 351 | 631 | 128 | 289 | 28 | 7 | 282 | 75 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | NYY | 54% | 251 | 230 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 70 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 221 | 278 | 346 | 625 | 125 | 289 | 28 | 7 | 279 | 73 | -8 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | NYY | 58% | 261 | 240 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 74 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 219 | 276 | 340 | 616 | 121 | 287 | 28 | 7 | 276 | 71 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +6 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1548 | 1423 | 314 | 55 | 7 | 36 | 101 | 436 | 11 | 35 | 7 | 221 | 278 | 345 | 623 | 124 | 290 | 28 | 7 | 278 | 64 | -51 | +4 | -1 | +6 | +34 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 598 | 132 | 23 | 3 | 15 | 42 | 183 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 221 | 278 | 344 | 622 | 124 | 290 | 28 | 6 | 278 | 64 | -21 | +2 | -0 | +2 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4846 | 4451 | 949 | 164 | 23 | 90 | 311 | 1423 | 42 | 137 | 33 | 213 | 271 | 321 | 592 | 108 | 289 | 29 | 6 | 262 | 64 | -110 | +9 | -2 | +12 | +70 | -2.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 127 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 191 | 6 | 18 | 4 | 213 | 272 | 320 | 592 | 107 | 288 | 29 | 6 | 262 | 64 | -22 | +2 | -0 | +2 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ATampa Tarpons · 323 PAwOBA .355 → .271 (−84)K% 25.7% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.70% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | — | 21.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.977 | — | 6.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.977 | — | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.68% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .355 → .271; ISO .194 → .144; BABIP .349 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 74 PAwOBA .266 → .201 (−65)K% 27.0% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.03% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 35.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 3.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.965 | ×1.012 | 23.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.965 | ×1.012 | 3.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.965 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.86% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .266 → .201; ISO .074 → .057; BABIP .312 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ATampa Tarpons · 185 PAwOBA .292 → .222 (−70)K% 22.7% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.70% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.57% | ÷0.971 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.47% | ÷1.119 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×1.015 | 25.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.91% | ÷1.046 | ×0.830 | ×0.990 | ×1.015 | 3.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.913 | ×0.910 | ×0.990 | ×1.015 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.842 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.75% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 124, 2B 109, 3B 83, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .292 → .222; ISO .059 → .048; BABIP .352 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Yankees · 34 PAwOBA .201 → .139 (−62)K% 17.6% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.001 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 1.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.93% | ÷1.056 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 19.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.043 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷2.059 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 312, 1B 111, 2B 109, 3B 102, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .201 → .139; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .259 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ATampa Tarpons · 486 PAwOBA .297 → .235 (−62)K% 21.2% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.19% | ÷0.959 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.23% | ÷1.061 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 5.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.36% | ÷1.035 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×1.030 | 20.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.95% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | ×1.030 | 5.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷0.971 | ×0.910 | ×0.993 | ×1.030 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.11% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.78% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 107, 2B 106, 3B 94, K 92, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .297 → .235; ISO .111 → .087; BABIP .299 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Yankees · 203 PAwOBA .365 → .264 (−100)K% 17.7% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.73% | ÷0.951 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.88% | ÷0.995 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 4.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.48% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.41% | ÷0.994 | ×0.820 | ×1.015 | ×1.008 | 27.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.21% | ÷1.106 | ×0.720 | ×1.015 | ×1.008 | 4.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.38% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×1.015 | ×1.008 | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.38% | ÷1.383 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.78% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 99, 2B 121, 3B 80, K 90, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .365 → .264; ISO .105 → .066; BABIP .397 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL NYY Yankees · 235 PAwOBA .352 → .231 (−121)K% 26.0% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.96% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.32% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 10.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.98% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.69% | ÷0.994 | ×0.680 | ×1.031 | ×1.008 | 19.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.92% | ÷1.101 | ×0.600 | ×1.031 | ×1.008 | 3.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷0.986 | ×0.600 | ×1.031 | ×1.008 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.08% | ÷1.195 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.22% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 99, 2B 120, 3B 97, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .352 → .231; ISO .120 → .057; BABIP .362 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Yankees 2 · 61 PAwOBA .268 → .189 (−79)K% 29.5% → 37.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.51% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.48% | ÷1.038 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 7.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.92% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 3.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.59% | ÷1.033 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.022 | 18.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.033 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 2.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.063 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 107, 2B 107, 3B 95, K 93, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .268 → .189; ISO .021 → .014; BABIP .273 → .183. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).