Chris Cortez

P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #369

Scout OFP41ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	A+LAA	26	26	114	4.28	3.88	22.2%	16.4%	—	K 17.1% · BB 18.8% · FIP 4.71
2026	23	MIX2 levels	44	5	59	4.76	4.75	23.7%	21.1%	—	K 19.0% · BB 23.7% · FIP 5.46
2027PROJ	24	MLBLAA	128	0	134	5.71	5.71	19.8%	20.0%	-1.7
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBLAA	56	0	59	5.39	5.28	20.6%	17.0%	-0.5
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBLAA	87	0	91	5.23	5.17	20.9%	16.2%	-0.6

Next 3 projected WAR -2.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control35Command43FB velo63

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsNick Hull (age 24) · Austin Vernon (age 24) · Victor Santos (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142133vR 125

ERA5.71

FIP5.71

K%19.8%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-0.2%

Proj IP134

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL3035

CMD3545

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	26	26	114	513	114	84	5	100%	4.4	17.1%	18.8%	-1.7%	1.2%	4.28	4.71	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	26	26	114	513	114	84	5	100%	4.4	17.1%	18.8%	-1.7%	1.2%	4.28	4.71	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	26	26	114	513	114	84	5	100%	4.4	22.2%	16.4%	5.8%	1.0%	4.28	3.88	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	5	59	279	66	59	4	11%	1.3	19.0%	23.7%	-4.8%	1.7%	4.76	5.46	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	5	59	279	66	59	4	11%	1.3	19.0%	23.7%	-4.8%	1.7%	4.76	5.46	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	5	59	279	66	59	4	11%	1.3	23.7%	21.1%	2.5%	1.4%	4.76	4.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	LAA	128	0	134	566	112	113	14	0%	1.0	19.8%	20.0%	-0.2%	2.5%	5.71	5.71	-1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAA	129	0	135	572	118	97	14	0%	1.0	20.6%	17.0%	3.6%	2.5%	5.39	5.28	-1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAA	129	0	135	572	120	93	15	0%	1.0	20.9%	16.2%	4.7%	2.6%	5.23	5.17	-0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAA	127	0	133	563	118	89	15	0%	1.1	21.0%	15.9%	5.1%	2.6%	5.17	5.17	-0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	LAA	123	0	129	546	114	86	15	0%	1.1	20.9%	15.8%	5.0%	2.7%	5.19	5.23	-1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	LAA	118	0	124	522	108	84	15	0%	1.0	20.6%	16.1%	4.6%	2.9%	5.29	5.36	-1.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	LAA	111	0	116	491	99	80	15	0%	1.0	20.3%	16.4%	3.9%	3.1%	5.44	5.54	-1.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAA	56	0	59	249	51	42	6	0%	1.1	20.6%	17.0%	3.6%	2.5%	5.39	5.28	-0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAA	87	0	91	384	80	62	10	0%	1.0	20.9%	16.2%	4.7%	2.6%	5.23	5.17	-0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAA	99	0	104	439	92	70	12	0%	1.1	21.0%	15.9%	5.1%	2.6%	5.17	5.17	-0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	LAA	104	0	109	460	96	73	13	0%	1.0	20.9%	15.8%	5.0%	2.7%	5.19	5.23	-0.8
2032	29	MLB CTX	LAA	103	0	108	456	94	73	13	0%	1.0	20.6%	16.1%	4.6%	2.9%	5.29	5.36	-1.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	LAA	100	0	105	443	90	72	14	0%	1.1	20.3%	16.4%	3.9%	3.1%	5.44	5.54	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		548	0	575	2429	503	392	67	0%	1.0	20.7%	16.2%	4.6%	2.8%	5.28	4.91	-2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	136	23	0%	1.1	20.7%	16.2%	4.6%	2.8%	5.28	4.91	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		70	31	172	792	141	163	11	44%	2.5	17.8%	20.6%	-2.8%	1.4%	4.44	4.97	-6.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	36	200	919	163	189	13	44%	2.5	17.8%	20.6%	-2.8%	1.4%	4.44	4.97	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Cortez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.71	19.8%	20.0%	2.5%	—	5.21	20.8%	4.5%	404	-0.50	—	—	—
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	72
Austin Vernon R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	24	SW	5.75	22.1%	16.8%	4.3%	.325	3.68	23.3%	10.0%	100	-2.07	3.37	261	71
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	71
Robbie Peto R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	24	SU	5.39	15.6%	19.4%	2.1%	.242	5.75	15.3%	1.9%	80	+0.36	5.39	232	70
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	70
Corey Avant R 2024 · 4.76 FIP	22	SW	4.76	17.1%	14.9%	2.2%	.394	4.57	19.9%	6.4%	221	-0.19	3.69	292	69
Cale Coshow R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	24	SW	4.56	14.3%	13.3%	1.8%	.287	4.05	23.6%	13.6%	126	-0.51	3.08	377	68
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	67
Noah Murdock R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.8%	17.1%	1.8%	.314	3.13	23.1%	9.6%	148	-1.43	2.57	310	67
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	67
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	66
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	4.95	18.3%	5.2%	131	-0.32	4.34	382	66
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	66
Yeudy Garcia R 2017 · 5.13 FIP	24	SW	5.13	16.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.311	4.26	18.4%	5.4%	115	-0.87	3.42	439	65
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	65
Dan Hammer R 2022 · 6.09 FIP	24	SW	6.09	18.3%	22.4%	3.1%	.255	4.52	21.8%	5.0%	105	-1.57	3.81	260	65
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	65
Mike Shawaryn R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	24	SW	5.25	19.7%	13.3%	3.9%	.279	4.69	23.9%	-4.6%	12	-0.56	3.51	406	65
Mike Johnson R 2000 · 5.37 FIP	24	SW	5.37	15.0%	11.2%	3.9%	.273	5.72	20.0%	12.0%	11	+0.35	5.37	202	65
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	130	20.6%	16.8%	1.04	5.35
Emmett O'Neill ('43-'46, -2 WAR*)	1.8	119	19.1%*	15.5%*	0.99*	5.94*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44
Daniel Cabrera ('09)	4.5	149	16.7%	12.9%	0.93	5.10
Weldon Wyckoff ('13-'18, -2 WAR*)	2.9	143	22.0%*	13.7%*	0.66*	5.43*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*