Christian Olivo
SS South Bend Cubs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A+/A/INTL2 orgs | 442 | .201/.281/.255 | 4 | 22 | 23 | — | .169/.226/.212 |
| 2025 | 21 | ACHC | 348 | .240/.367/.337 | 3 | 28 | 55 | — | .193/.286/.275 |
| 2026 | 22 | A+CHC | 306 | .221/.339/.345 | 5 | 18 | 56 | — | .186/.280/.283 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBCHC | 1 | .200/.281/.284 | 0 | 0 | 61 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBCHC | 68 | .206/.287/.302 | 1 | 2 | 68 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBCHC | 127 | .210/.290/.314 | 2 | 4 | 72 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 133 | 71 | 205 | 167 | 53 | 0 | 109 | -75 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 107 | 88 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 20 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 193 | 324 | 227 | 551 | 34 | 250 | 19 | 11 | 267 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 111 | 91 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 264 | 391 | 374 | 765 | 110 | 343 | 21 | 14 | 351 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 51 | 47 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 140 | 85 | 225 | 118 | 25 | 6 | 112 | -51 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 334 | 293 | 66 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 82 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 225 | 304 | 287 | 590 | 61 | 297 | 25 | 9 | 269 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 57 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 167 | 273 | 229 | 502 | 62 | 212 | 25 | 11 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 348 | 288 | 69 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 47 | 64 | 11 | 28 | 10 | 240 | 367 | 337 | 704 | 97 | 296 | 18 | 14 | 328 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 306 | 258 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 38 | 59 | 8 | 18 | 1 | 221 | 339 | 345 | 684 | 124 | 265 | 19 | 12 | 314 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 15 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 67 | 140 | 80 | 0 | 57 | -75 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 107 | 93 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 151 | 248 | 183 | 430 | 32 | 200 | 27 | 7 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 111 | 97 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 186 | 282 | 268 | 550 | 82 | 255 | 30 | 9 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 51 | 48 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 120 | 83 | 203 | 114 | 31 | 4 | 93 | -51 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 334 | 302 | 55 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 113 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 182 | 242 | 232 | 474 | 50 | 265 | 34 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 348 | 306 | 59 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 91 | 11 | 28 | 10 | 193 | 286 | 275 | 561 | 82 | 255 | 26 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 306 | 269 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 75 | 8 | 18 | 1 | 186 | 280 | 283 | 562 | 97 | 234 | 25 | 9 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 15 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 67 | 80 | 0 | 57 | -75 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 133 | 71 | 205 | 167 | 53 | 0 | 109 | -75 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 107 | 93 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 151 | 248 | 183 | 430 | 32 | 219 | 27 | 7 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 107 | 88 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 20 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 193 | 324 | 227 | 551 | 34 | 250 | 19 | 11 | 267 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 111 | 97 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 186 | 282 | 268 | 550 | 82 | 270 | 30 | 9 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 111 | 91 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 264 | 391 | 374 | 765 | 110 | 343 | 21 | 14 | 351 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 442 | 401 | 68 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 149 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 170 | 227 | 212 | 439 | 42 | 257 | 34 | 6 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 442 | 388 | 78 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 109 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 201 | 281 | 255 | 536 | 54 | 265 | 25 | 9 | 246 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 348 | 306 | 59 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 91 | 11 | 28 | 10 | 193 | 286 | 275 | 561 | 82 | 262 | 26 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A RAW | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 348 | 288 | 69 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 47 | 64 | 11 | 28 | 10 | 240 | 367 | 337 | 704 | 97 | 296 | 18 | 14 | 328 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 306 | 269 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 75 | 8 | 18 | 1 | 186 | 280 | 283 | 562 | 97 | 240 | 25 | 9 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 306 | 258 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 38 | 59 | 8 | 18 | 1 | 221 | 339 | 345 | 684 | 124 | 265 | 19 | 12 | 314 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 15 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 67 | 140 | 80 | 0 | 57 | -75 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 107 | 94 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 149 | 248 | 181 | 428 | 32 | 200 | 27 | 7 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 111 | 97 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 186 | 282 | 268 | 550 | 82 | 255 | 30 | 9 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 442 | 409 | 68 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 149 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 166 | 227 | 208 | 435 | 42 | 245 | 34 | 6 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 348 | 305 | 59 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 91 | 11 | 28 | 10 | 193 | 286 | 275 | 562 | 82 | 255 | 26 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 306 | 268 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 75 | 8 | 18 | 1 | 187 | 280 | 284 | 563 | 97 | 234 | 25 | 9 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 442 | 409 | 68 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 149 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 166 | 227 | 208 | 435 | 42 | 245 | 34 | 6 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 348 | 305 | 59 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 91 | 11 | 28 | 10 | 193 | 286 | 275 | 562 | 82 | 255 | 26 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 306 | 268 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 75 | 8 | 18 | 1 | 187 | 280 | 284 | 563 | 97 | 234 | 25 | 9 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | CHC | 0% | 416 | 371 | 74 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 104 | 8 | 14 | 3 | 198 | 279 | 280 | 560 | 82 | 261 | 25 | 8 | 258 | 61 | -19 | +2 | +0 | +4 | +9 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | CHC | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 281 | 284 | 565 | 84 | 265 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 61 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | CHC | 30% | 224 | 200 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 55 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 204 | 285 | 299 | 584 | 95 | 264 | 25 | 8 | 268 | 68 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | CHC | 44% | 287 | 256 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 70 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 208 | 289 | 311 | 600 | 103 | 266 | 24 | 8 | 274 | 72 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | CHC | 51% | 333 | 296 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 81 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 210 | 291 | 319 | 610 | 108 | 267 | 24 | 8 | 278 | 74 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | CHC | 52% | 355 | 316 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 87 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 211 | 291 | 321 | 612 | 110 | 268 | 25 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | CHC | 53% | 362 | 323 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 89 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 211 | 291 | 321 | 612 | 110 | 268 | 25 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -11 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | CHC | 53% | 358 | 319 | 66 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 89 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 209 | 288 | 315 | 603 | 106 | 267 | 25 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -12 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | CHC | 52% | 350 | 312 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 88 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 206 | 285 | 308 | 593 | 101 | 266 | 25 | 8 | 271 | 69 | -13 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | CHC | 30% | 68 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 206 | 287 | 302 | 589 | 96 | 267 | 25 | 9 | 270 | 68 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | CHC | 44% | 127 | 113 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 210 | 290 | 314 | 604 | 104 | 269 | 24 | 9 | 276 | 72 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | CHC | 51% | 169 | 150 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 41 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 212 | 292 | 321 | 613 | 109 | 270 | 24 | 8 | 279 | 74 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | CHC | 52% | 186 | 165 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 293 | 323 | 616 | 110 | 271 | 24 | 9 | 280 | 75 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | CHC | 53% | 193 | 172 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 47 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 292 | 323 | 615 | 110 | 271 | 24 | 8 | 280 | 75 | -6 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | CHC | 53% | 188 | 167 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 211 | 290 | 317 | 607 | 106 | 270 | 25 | 9 | 277 | 72 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | CHC | 52% | 182 | 162 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 208 | 286 | 310 | 596 | 102 | 268 | 25 | 8 | 272 | 69 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1113 | 990 | 209 | 41 | 6 | 18 | 94 | 274 | 18 | 28 | 6 | 211 | 291 | 319 | 610 | 108 | 271 | 25 | 8 | 277 | 60 | -36 | +3 | -2 | +12 | +24 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 123 | 24 | 4 | 11 | 55 | 160 | 11 | 16 | 4 | 213 | 294 | 325 | 619 | 112 | 273 | 25 | 8 | 277 | 60 | -21 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3789 | 3372 | 664 | 122 | 16 | 51 | 302 | 996 | 76 | 148 | 35 | 197 | 278 | 288 | 566 | 91 | 261 | 26 | 8 | 256 | 60 | -83 | +7 | -4 | +26 | +53 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 114 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 52 | 171 | 13 | 25 | 6 | 197 | 278 | 291 | 569 | 93 | 261 | 26 | 8 | 256 | 60 | -22 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 306 PAwOBA .309 → .251 (−58)K% 19.3% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.28% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 24.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.61% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 2.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 17.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 5.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.01% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .309 → .251; ISO .124 → .100; BABIP .265 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 348 PAwOBA .322 → .249 (−73)K% 18.4% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.39% | ÷0.956 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.51% | ÷1.106 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.16% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 18.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.59% | ÷0.968 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 6.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.34% | ÷0.925 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.16% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 91, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .322 → .249; ISO .097 → .079; BABIP .296 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 334 PAwOBA .265 → .212 (−53)K% 24.6% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.55% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.68% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.54% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×0.965 | ×1.015 | 23.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.37% | ÷0.986 | ×0.830 | ×0.965 | ×1.015 | 1.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.95% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.965 | ×1.015 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.42% | ÷0.908 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.27% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .265 → .212; ISO .061 → .049; BABIP .297 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 51 PAwOBA .110 → .093 (−17)K% 25.5% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.49% | ÷1.005 | ×1.270 | — | — | 32.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 4.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×1.034 | ×1.027 | 11.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.034 | ×0.810 | ×1.034 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.850 | ×1.034 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 96, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .110 → .093; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .118 → .114. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Cubs · 111 PAwOBA .342 → .236 (−107)K% 20.7% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.72% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 8.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.70% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 18.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 7.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.14% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .342 → .236; ISO .110 → .075; BABIP .343 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Cubs · 107 PAwOBA .261 → .186 (−75)K% 18.7% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.69% | ÷0.981 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.21% | ÷1.083 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 6.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.67% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 3.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.06% | ÷0.993 | ×0.820 | ×0.978 | ×1.008 | 17.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.47% | ÷0.970 | ×0.720 | ×0.978 | ×1.008 | 1.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.054 | ×0.720 | ×0.978 | ×1.008 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 111, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .261 → .186; ISO .034 → .023; BABIP .250 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Cubs · 15 PAwOBA .107 → .057 (−50)K% 53.3% → 77.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 53.33% | ÷0.992 | ×1.440 | — | — | 77.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.071 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.67% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 4.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.002 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.022 | 13.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 100, 2B 89, 3B 89, K 98, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .107 → .057; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .167 → .140. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .