Welinton Herrera

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 198 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAARPD6040-MANROOKIEFG #375

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	46	0	62	3.47	1.62	35.4%	8.5%	—	K 26.5% · BB 9.8% · FIP 2.62
2025	21	MIX2 levels	52	0	65	2.64	1.55	36.4%	8.8%	—	K 29.1% · BB 9.8% · FIP 2.28
2026	22	MIX2 levels	19	1	25	4.68	2.54	30.8%	12.8%	0.6	K 27.3% · BB 11.8% · FIP 2.85
2027PROJ	23	MLBCOL	30	0	32	3.88	3.88	28.6%	11.8%	0.3
2028PROJ59% MLB	24	MLBCOL	33	0	35	3.86	3.82	28.6%	11.2%	0.3
2029PROJ75% MLB	25	MLBCOL	44	0	46	3.83	3.79	28.6%	10.9%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff52Control47Command35FB velo65

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 73%

CompsTaylor Tankersley (age 23) · Hayden Harris (age 24) · Brandon Hughes (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9199vR 107

ERA3.88

FIP3.88

K%28.6%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%16.7%

Proj IP32

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—50

CMD3035

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	18	0	23	96	28	11	1	0%	1.3	19.8%	14.3%	5.5%	1.3%	5.16	3.94	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	18	0	23	96	28	11	1	0%	1.3	29.2%	11.5%	17.7%	1.0%	5.16	2.66	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	20	1	43	177	54	14	0	5%	2.1	20.7%	9.9%	10.9%	0.0%	2.93	2.60	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	20	1	43	177	54	14	0	5%	2.1	30.5%	7.9%	22.6%	0.0%	2.93	1.57	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	21	0	22	98	36	15	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	19.1%	5.8%	0.0%	3.27	3.41	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	21	0	22	98	36	15	0	0%	1.0	36.7%	15.3%	21.4%	0.0%	3.27	1.87	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	62	260	92	22	2	0%	1.4	26.5%	9.8%	16.7%	0.9%	3.47	2.62	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	62	260	92	22	2	0%	1.4	26.5%	9.8%	16.7%	0.9%	3.47	2.62	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	62	260	92	22	2	0%	1.4	35.4%	8.5%	26.9%	0.8%	3.47	1.62	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	65	272	99	24	2	0%	1.2	29.1%	9.8%	19.2%	0.7%	2.64	2.28	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	65	272	99	24	2	0%	1.2	29.1%	9.8%	19.2%	0.7%	2.64	2.28	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	65	272	99	24	2	0%	1.2	36.4%	8.8%	27.6%	0.7%	2.64	1.55	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	1	25	117	36	15	1	5%	1.3	27.3%	11.8%	15.6%	1.0%	4.68	2.85	+0.5
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	1	25	117	36	15	1	5%	1.3	27.3%	11.8%	15.6%	1.0%	4.68	2.85	+0.5
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	1	25	117	36	15	1	5%	1.3	30.8%	12.8%	17.9%	0.9%	4.68	2.54	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	0.8	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.67	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	COL	30	0	32	135	39	16	3	0%	1.1	28.6%	11.8%	16.7%	2.4%	3.88	3.88	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	57	0	60	252	72	28	6	0%	1.0	28.6%	11.2%	17.4%	2.4%	3.86	3.82	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	58	0	60	255	73	28	6	0%	1.0	28.6%	10.9%	17.7%	2.5%	3.83	3.79	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	58	0	60	255	73	27	6	0%	1.0	28.5%	10.8%	17.8%	2.5%	3.82	3.79	+0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	33	0	35	148	42	17	4	0%	1.1	28.6%	11.2%	17.4%	2.4%	3.86	3.82	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	44	0	46	194	56	21	5	0%	1.0	28.6%	10.9%	17.7%	2.5%	3.83	3.79	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	49	0	51	215	61	23	5	0%	1.0	28.5%	10.8%	17.8%	2.5%	3.82	3.79	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		128	0	134	566	161	62	14	0%	1.0	28.4%	10.9%	17.5%	2.4%	3.77	3.41	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	845	240	92	21	0%	1.0	28.4%	10.9%	17.5%	2.4%	3.77	3.41	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		176	2	240	1020	260	116	7	1%	1.4	25.5%	11.4%	14.1%	0.7%	3.42	2.75	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	2	200	851	217	97	6	1%	1.4	25.5%	11.4%	14.1%	0.7%	3.42	2.75	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Welinton Herrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.88	28.6%	11.8%	2.4%	—	3.80	28.6%	17.7%	180	-0.08	—	—	—
Taylor Tankersley L 2006 · 3.65 FIP	23	SU	3.65	25.8%	11.8%	2.2%	.271	4.62	21.6%	9.8%	65	+0.97	3.65	118	83
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.30	29.4%	17.2%	145	+0.19	1.77	196	83
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.59	24.3%	15.3%	149	+0.91	3.68	206	83
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	82
Jack Leathersich L 2015 · 3.70 FIP	25	SU	3.70	30.6%	13.2%	2.8%	.339	3.74	28.6%	11.9%	76	+0.04	3.16	101	81
Rafael Perez L 2006 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	26.8%	8.9%	3.6%	.235	3.21	23.6%	17.0%	185	-0.72	2.74	403	81
Ryan Rowland-Smith L 2007 · 3.35 FIP	24	SU	3.35	25.0%	8.3%	2.4%	.324	4.89	12.7%	4.4%	324	+1.54	3.35	363	80
Dale Stanavich L 2023 · 3.09 FIP	24	SU	3.09	25.2%	12.2%	1.0%	.365	4.93	24.7%	10.3%	154	+1.84	3.09	184	80
Darien Núñez L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	26.4%	11.0%	1.8%	.377	2.59	34.2%	23.5%	78	-0.68	2.48	122	80
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	79
Reagan Todd L 2019 · 2.89 FIP	23	SU	2.89	26.6%	7.1%	2.1%	.286	4.21	26.1%	15.5%	90	+1.32	2.89	122	79
Jake Diekman L 2012 · 2.88 FIP	25	SU	2.88	26.7%	13.0%	0.7%	.308	2.68	28.4%	18.3%	168	-0.20	2.27	592	79
Jimmy Burnette L 2022 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	29.8%	15.2%	2.0%	.297	3.82	22.1%	6.7%	101	+0.23	3.00	158	79
Dario Alvarez L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	26	SU	3.47	26.0%	13.1%	1.7%	.260	3.64	27.7%	17.1%	129	+0.17	3.47	160	79
Dan Runzler L 2010 · 2.84 FIP	25	SU	2.84	25.7%	11.8%	0.8%	.315	2.92	20.8%	8.3%	27	+0.08	2.84	187	79
Nate Lavender L 2023 · 4.01 FIP	23	SU	4.01	30.2%	9.9%	4.0%	.281	2.48	33.9%	27.3%	55	-1.53	2.48	146	78
Lael Lockhart L 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	33.4%	15.2%	2.5%	.409	4.38	21.5%	10.6%	321	+0.79	3.59	520	78
Brian Fuentes L 2002 · 3.64 FIP	26	SU	3.64	32.2%	11.0%	3.4%	.333	3.19	26.2%	17.3%	194	-0.45	2.08	602	77
Will Ohman L 2001 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.7%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	350	77
Matt Cronin L 2021 · 3.42 FIP	23	SU	3.42	34.1%	15.8%	2.2%	.349	3.05	22.9%	12.8%	111	-0.37	1.83	172	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	55	28.5%	11.1%	0.94	3.80
Antonio Bastardo ('17)	2.0	56	28.0%	11.4%	1.01	4.01
Chaz Roe ('21)	1.1	43	26.4%	11.1%	0.79	3.89
Frank Francisco ('14)	1.9	55	25.6%	10.3%	0.96	4.01
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Marshall Bridges ('59-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	49	26.7%*	12.3%*	0.88*	4.15*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*