Miguel Vargas — OGILVIE

Miguel VargasCF FCL Cardinals

Age 22 L/L 6'0" / 176 lbs ROK HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj PA

wRC+†48

AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .254 / .263

PA4

HR0

K%35

BB%8

ISO80

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals Red	—	93	83	19	1	0	1	10	25	0	2	0	229	312	277	589	48	316	27	11	277	73	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2022	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	152	133	28	2	1	7	16	42	1	6	2	211	300	398	698	188	244	28	11	309	95	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
2023	19	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	99	81	10	3	0	1	18	32	0	2	0	123	283	198	480	74	188	32	18	242	50	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2024	20	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	74	62	10	3	1	0	10	24	0	3	1	161	278	242	520	81	250	32	14	242	50	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Red	—	93	87	14	1	0	1	6	36	0	2	0	161	215	207	422	46	255	39	6	183	10	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	152	139	20	1	1	5	10	61	1	6	2	144	207	273	480	129	191	40	7	205	25	-14	+0	—	—	+3	-1.0
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	99	88	7	2	0	1	11	46	0	2	0	80	182	136	318	57	139	46	11	149	-13	-13	+0	—	—	+2	-1.1
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	74	66	8	2	1	0	6	34	0	3	1	121	194	182	376	61	204	46	8	164	-3	-9	+0	—	—	+2	-0.7
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Red	—	93	87	14	1	0	1	6	36	0	2	0	161	215	207	422	46	260	39	6	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Red	—	93	83	19	1	0	1	10	25	0	2	0	229	312	277	589	48	316	27	11	277	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	152	139	20	1	1	5	10	61	1	6	2	144	207	273	480	129	200	40	7	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	152	133	28	2	1	7	16	42	1	6	2	211	300	398	698	188	244	28	11	309	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	99	88	7	2	0	1	11	46	0	2	0	80	182	136	318	57	146	46	11	149	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	—	99	81	10	3	0	1	18	32	0	2	0	123	283	198	480	74	188	32	18	242	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	74	66	8	2	1	0	6	34	0	3	1	121	194	182	376	61	235	46	8	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	—	74	62	10	3	1	0	10	24	0	3	1	161	278	242	520	81	250	32	14	242	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Red	—	93	87	14	1	0	1	6	36	0	2	0	161	215	207	422	46	255	39	6	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	152	140	20	1	1	5	10	61	1	6	2	143	207	271	478	129	191	40	7	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	99	88	7	2	0	1	11	46	0	2	0	80	182	136	318	57	139	46	11	149	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	74	68	8	2	1	0	6	34	0	3	1	118	194	176	371	59	204	46	8	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	99	88	7	2	0	1	11	46	0	2	0	80	182	136	318	57	139	46	11	149	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	74	68	8	2	1	0	6	34	0	3	1	118	194	176	371	59	204	46	8	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	22	MLB MLE	STL	0%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						286	25	0	240	48	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	STL	34%	107	96	19	4	1	1	9	36	1	1	0	198	274	292	565	94	287	34	8	252	57	-6	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	STL	34%	37	34	6	1	0	0	3	12	0	0	0	176	243	206	449	29	287	32	8	245	57	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	37	34	6	1	0	0	3	12	0	0	0	176	243	206	449	29	273	32	8	245	18	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	597	106	18	0	0	53	211	0	0	0	178	245	208	452	30	275	32	8	245	18	-33	+0	+0	+2	+14	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	529	480	68	10	3	8	42	214	2	14	3	142	214	225	439	83	228	40	8	195	18	-6	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	84	12	4	10	52	263	2	17	4	142	214	227	441	85	229	40	8	195	18	-34	+1	+0	+2	+14	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Miguel Vargas (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	184/254/263	80	286	0	1	35%	8%	48	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cole Roederer 2022 · A	22	42→32	40→45	50	44	198/272/292	93	297	7	13	34%	8%	61	-1.5	201/266/314	113	295	12	11	34%	7%	64	-1.3	180/254/288	108	265	12	11	34%	8%	53	-1.2
✕Cody Morissette 2022 · A	22	41→30	39→45	43→55	44	195/263/281	86	285	6	5	32%	8%	55	-1.9	186/242/306	120	251	14	7	31%	6%	53	-2.1	182/237/299	117	239	14	19	29%	6%	48	-1.4
✕D.J. Wilson 2019 · A	22	37	41→50	50	39	183/242/281	98	279	7	13	36%	7%	47	-2.5	183/249/280	97	308	9	14	40%	8%	51	-2.3	104/190/192	88	178	12	21	47%	9%	9	-1.5
✕Garrett Spain 2023 · A	22	37→36	40→45	49→50	38	182/244/267	85	285	8	10	37%	7%	45	-2.7	168/228/274	106	250	11	10	36%	6%	40	-3.0	162/227/281	119	225	15	14	34%	7%	41	-2.3
✕Rolando Gomez 2011 · A	22	41	40→45	51→50	38	199/247/296	97	297	6	10	34%	6%	51	-2.2	214/255/305	91	314	5	14	32%	5%	57	-1.8	221/261/309	87	317	5	16	30%	5%	57	-1.1
✕Francisco Del Valle 2021 · A	22	36→28	41→45	46→40	42	177/255/279	103	264	8	5	34%	8%	53	-2.1	189/253/299	110	272	12	5	33%	7%	56	-1.9	165/232/271	106	232	13	3	33%	7%	40	-1.2
✕Brenden Webb 2012 · A	22	40→39	38→45	47→50	42	183/262/258	75	309	5	9	39%	9%	50	-2.3	183/265/296	113	308	11	10	40%	9%	60	-1.6	169/250/290	121	279	12	10	41%	9%	52	-1.5
✕Andy Yerzy 2021 · A	23	35	38→50	49→40	35	174/226/251	77	275	5	7	37%	5%	34	-3.5	188/272/333	145	263	18	6	34%	9%	72	-0.7	166/252/300	134	233	18	4	36%	9%	55	-1.0
✕Stephen Paolini 2023 · A	22	36→37	38→40	48→50	37	167/238/244	77	308	6	12	44%	8%	38	-3.2	177/247/261	84	328	7	17	44%	8%	45	-2.7	160/232/238	78	299	8	23	46%	8%	33	-1.6
✕Andry Arias 2021 · A	21	40	40	52→40	41	192/259/281	89	288	7	8	34%	7%	54	-2.0	190/255/290	100	295	9	6	36%	7%	55	-2.0	163/231/263	100	247	9	3	36%	7%	38	-1.0
✕Jonny Butler 2022 · A	23	43→33	39→50	51→55	42	207/267/295	88	301	7	9	32%	8%	60	-1.6	197/263/307	110	285	9	16	32%	7%	61	-1.5	172/251/288	116	240	10	18	31%	8%	50	-1.2
✕Agustin Ruiz 2021 · A	21	40→35	37→50	46→40	39	189/250/267	78	298	4	4	36%	7%	47	-2.5	187/253/321	134	269	17	4	35%	7%	62	-1.4	166/244/295	129	230	15	2	34%	7%	52	-1.3
✕Henrry Rosario 2014 · A	21	37	38→45	47→45	44	180/249/266	85	257	5	8	30%	8%	47	-2.6	199/253/304	105	256	8	7	24%	6%	56	-1.9	205/253/337	132	255	14	9	25%	5%	63	-0.5
✕Jacob Wetzel 2022 · A	22	42→34	42→45	49→50	42	203/278/304	101	310	11	8	36%	8%	67	-1.1	191/267/299	108	279	10	12	33%	8%	62	-1.4	178/259/293	115	256	10	14	32%	9%	55	-1.1
✕Alan Rick 2006 · A	22	37	39→45	46→30	41	183/241/270	87	267	6	4	33%	7%	44	-2.8	201/262/318	117	295	12	3	34%	7%	63	-1.3	193/258/318	125	280	14	1	35%	7%	62	-0.6
✕David Masters 2015 · A	22	39→37	36→45	47→40	40	183/249/251	68	277	3	8	33%	7%	43	-2.8	179/238/250	71	242	6	4	27%	6%	38	-3.2	192/262/321	129	263	16	1	32%	7%	61	-0.6
✕Aaron Bracho 2023 · A	22	29→37	42→45	44→40	37	157/224/253	96	253	10	4	40%	7%	35	-3.4	193/255/314	121	256	14	5	30%	7%	61	-1.5	189/251/313	124	237	16	4	27%	7%	57	-1.0
✕Brandon Lewis 2021 · A	22	42→35	39→50	49→30	41	203/264/289	86	290	7	6	31%	6%	57	-1.8	197/250/365	168	291	23	3	39%	6%	71	-0.8	177/231/332	154	254	22	1	39%	5%	54	-1.4
✕Leandro Emiliani 2022 · A	22	37	42→50	46→30	40	182/256/280	98	291	10	4	39%	8%	53	-2.1	185/245/293	108	291	11	3	38%	6%	51	-2.2	170/232/278	107	265	11	1	38%	6%	41	-1.6
✕Richard D Oleo 2008 · A	22	39	39→40	49→45	41	190/248/277	88	283	6	6	34%	7%	49	-2.4	194/255/282	88	271	7	8	29%	7%	52	-2.2	157/226/234	77	203	7	10	26%	8%	29	-1.2