Marty Gair

P Clearwater Threshers

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	APHI	24	27	4.33	4.88	31.0%	26.4%	—	K 22.9% · BB 31.1% · FIP 6.12
2026	23	MIX3 levels	41	48	4.88	2.77	42.0%	14.5%	—	K 31.6% · BB 18.2% · FIP 5.37
2027PROJ	24	MLBSF	54	57	5.34	5.34	28.0%	20.0%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSF	24	25	5.08	4.98	28.0%	17.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSF	36	38	4.95	4.91	27.8%	16.5%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Command40FB velo70

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsAndrew McInvale (age 24) · CJ Weins (age 23) · Caleb Simpson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 118

ERA5.34

FIP5.34

K%28.0%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4045

CMD3040

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	24	0	27	129	40	34	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	31.1%	-8.2%	1.9%	4.33	6.12	—
2025	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	24	0	27	129	40	34	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	31.1%	-8.2%	1.9%	4.33	6.12	—
2025	22	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	24	0	27	129	40	34	2	0%	1.1	31.0%	26.4%	4.7%	1.6%	4.33	4.88	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	0	48	200	84	29	5	0%	1.2	31.6%	18.2%	13.3%	4.8%	4.88	5.37	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	0	48	200	84	29	5	0%	1.2	31.6%	18.2%	13.3%	4.8%	4.88	5.37	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	0	48	200	84	29	5	0%	1.2	42.0%	14.5%	27.5%	2.5%	4.88	2.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SF	54	0	57	241	67	48	7	0%	1.1	28.0%	20.0%	8.0%	3.1%	5.34	5.34	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	55	0	58	244	68	42	7	0%	1.1	28.0%	17.2%	10.8%	3.1%	5.08	4.98	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	SF	55	0	58	244	68	40	7	0%	1.1	27.8%	16.5%	11.3%	3.1%	4.95	4.91	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	24	0	25	106	30	18	3	0%	1.0	28.0%	17.2%	10.8%	3.1%	5.08	4.98	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	SF	36	0	38	160	45	27	5	0%	1.1	27.8%	16.5%	11.3%	3.1%	4.95	4.91	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	266	74	45	8	0%	1.1	27.9%	16.8%	11.1%	3.1%	5.00	4.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	235	143	25	0%	1.1	27.9%	16.8%	11.1%	3.1%	5.00	4.55	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		65	0	75	329	93	77	12	0%	1.2	28.2%	23.3%	4.9%	3.6%	4.68	5.66	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	0	200	877	247	204	32	0%	1.2	28.2%	23.3%	4.9%	3.6%	4.68	5.66	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marty Gair (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.34	28.0%	20.0%	3.1%	—	4.95	27.9%	11.0%	116	-0.39	—	—	—
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	90
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	87
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	86
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	83
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	83
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	82
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	82
Jonathan Sprinkle R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	24	SU	4.18	24.8%	16.3%	2.0%	.331	6.20	17.4%	-5.5%	26	+2.02	3.81	109	82
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	82
Evan Johnson R 2021 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	28.6%	16.3%	3.1%	.308	4.64	23.6%	6.0%	38	+0.20	4.42	103	81
Justin Yeager R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	29.6%	15.8%	3.6%	.230	3.38	19.6%	9.2%	108	-1.20	3.32	265	81
Riley Ferrell R 2018 · 4.38 FIP	24	SU	4.38	24.1%	15.6%	2.5%	.333	4.21	23.1%	7.4%	55	-0.17	2.85	175	81
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	80
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	80
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	79
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	79
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	79
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	78
Jace Beck R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	23	SU	4.77	29.7%	22.5%	2.4%	.373	4.17	27.0%	14.5%	144	-0.60	4.03	216	78
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	27.9%	17.9%	1.19	5.12
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*