Connor Oliver

P Altoona Curve

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 170 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	APIT	24	9	79	5.24	3.38	23.4%	10.3%	—	K 17.3% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.34
2025	24	MIX2 levels	23	7	52	4.50	5.16	25.5%	15.6%	—	K 18.6% · BB 18.5% · FIP 6.50
2026	25	MIX2 levels	28	22	115	4.47	4.92	24.5%	13.0%	—	K 19.4% · BB 14.6% · FIP 5.88
2027PROJ	26	MLBPIT	11	11	70	6.23	6.23	18.4%	17.4%	-1.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBPIT	6	6	38	6.05	6.07	18.8%	16.5%	-0.5
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBPIT	10	10	59	5.97	6.02	18.9%	16.0%	-0.7

Next 3 projected WAR -2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control20Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsErik Rivera (age 23) · Brooks Gosswein (age 24) · Eric Stout (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135143vR 151

ERA6.23

FIP6.23

K%18.4%

BB%17.4%

K-BB%1.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2024	23	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	24	9	79	350	82	36	6	38%	3.3	17.3%	12.1%	5.2%	2.1%	5.24	4.34	—
2024	23	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	24	9	79	350	82	36	6	38%	3.3	17.3%	12.1%	5.2%	2.1%	5.24	4.34	—
2024	23	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	24	9	79	350	82	36	6	38%	3.3	23.4%	10.3%	13.1%	1.7%	5.24	3.38	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	7	52	231	59	36	9	30%	2.3	18.6%	18.5%	0.1%	4.8%	4.50	6.50	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	7	52	231	59	36	9	30%	2.3	18.6%	18.5%	0.1%	4.8%	4.50	6.50	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	7	52	231	59	36	9	30%	2.3	25.5%	15.6%	10.0%	3.9%	4.50	5.16	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	22	115	515	126	67	20	79%	4.1	19.4%	14.6%	4.8%	4.7%	4.47	5.88	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	22	115	515	126	67	20	79%	4.1	19.4%	14.6%	4.8%	4.7%	4.47	5.88	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	22	115	515	126	67	20	79%	4.1	24.5%	13.0%	11.5%	3.9%	4.47	4.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	PIT	11	11	70	296	54	52	11	100%	6.4	18.4%	17.4%	1.0%	3.8%	6.23	6.23	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	102	429	81	71	16	100%	6.0	18.8%	16.5%	2.2%	3.8%	6.05	6.07	-1.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	99	416	79	67	16	100%	6.2	18.9%	16.0%	2.8%	3.8%	5.97	6.02	-1.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	94	398	75	63	16	100%	6.3	18.8%	15.8%	2.9%	3.9%	5.99	6.06	-1.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	88	374	69	60	15	100%	6.3	18.5%	15.9%	2.6%	4.1%	6.09	6.19	-1.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	PIT	6	6	38	160	30	27	6	100%	6.3	18.8%	16.5%	2.2%	3.8%	6.05	6.07	-0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	59	249	47	40	10	100%	5.9	18.9%	16.0%	2.8%	3.8%	5.97	6.02	-0.7
2030	29	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	67	283	53	45	11	100%	6.1	18.8%	15.8%	2.9%	3.9%	5.99	6.06	-0.8
2031	30	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	69	291	54	46	12	100%	6.3	18.5%	15.9%	2.6%	4.1%	6.09	6.19	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	38	233	983	184	158	39	100%	6.1	18.7%	16.0%	2.7%	3.9%	6.02	5.71	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	158	136	33	100%	6.1	18.7%	16.0%	2.7%	3.9%	6.02	5.71	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		76	38	247	1101	203	160	43	50%	3.2	18.5%	14.5%	3.9%	3.9%	4.71	5.51	-5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	31	200	893	165	130	35	50%	3.2	18.5%	14.5%	3.9%	3.9%	4.71	5.51	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Oliver (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.23	18.4%	17.4%	3.8%	—	6.05	18.8%	2.7%	294	-0.18	—	—	—
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	73
Brooks Gosswein L 2023 · 5.61 FIP	24	SP-	5.61	15.2%	17.9%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	165	72
Eric Stout L 2019 · 6.84 FIP	26	SW	6.84	16.3%	13.8%	6.1%	.299	4.91	25.6%	9.2%	83	-1.93	3.32	411	70
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	69
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	67
Adam Loewen L 2008 · 6.87 FIP	24	SP-	6.87	13.7%	17.6%	4.9%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	340	66
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	66
Adam Scott L 2022 · 5.27 FIP	26	SW	5.27	21.1%	13.5%	4.1%	.317	4.65	16.1%	-1.2%	46	-0.62	4.17	315	65
Bryan Sammons L 2021 · 6.16 FIP	26	SP-	6.16	17.0%	13.4%	5.1%	.276	5.52	20.7%	11.5%	261	-0.64	3.58	688	64
Kevin Smith L 2022 · 6.20 FIP	25	SW	6.20	17.5%	16.2%	4.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	248	64
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	64
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	63
Jacob Latz L 2022 · 6.11 FIP	26	SP-	6.11	21.4%	13.4%	5.7%	.333	3.61	24.1%	13.2%	208	-2.50	2.39	480	63
Jake Miednik L 2022 · 6.12 FIP	26	SP-	6.12	10.5%	14.6%	3.8%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	1.55	126	63
Joey Walsh L 2022 · 7.30 FIP	24	SW	7.30	18.8%	12.9%	7.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	100	62
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	62
Cody Dickson L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	25	SW	5.48	15.9%	14.6%	3.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	354	62
Tommy Sommer L 2023 · 6.99 FIP	24	SP	6.99	16.7%	16.4%	5.9%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	230	61
Nick Allgeyer L 2022 · 5.17 FIP	26	SW	5.17	18.6%	9.8%	4.4%	.284	5.65	18.9%	6.8%	81	+0.48	3.74	390	60
Jaime Arias L 2024 · 5.33 FIP	25	SW	5.33	15.1%	9.7%	4.2%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	243	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	91	18.7%	16.3%	1.51	6.06
Lowell Palmer ('69-'74, -4 WAR*)	1.6	79	21.9%*	13.3%*	1.59*	6.09*
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
Carl Doyle ('35-'40, -4 WAR*)	1.1	74	21.0%*	13.5%*	1.27*	6.75*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Bobby Jones ('04)	1.6	81	15.1%	12.9%	1.25	5.77
Ray Harrell ('35-'45, -6 WAR*)	1.6	66	19.3%*	12.3%*	1.40*	6.15*