Ahbram Liendo
3B Portland Sea Dogs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | AA/A+BOS | 431 | .196/.292/.255 | 3 | 31 | 11 | — | .143/.215/.181 |
| 2025 | 21 | AABOS | 463 | .239/.325/.308 | 4 | 42 | 61 | — | .233/.295/.287 |
| 2026 | 22 | AABOS | 355 | .239/.341/.369 | 8 | 25 | 70 | — | .210/.289/.309 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBBOS | 4 | .199/.270/.273 | 0 | 0 | 52 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 24 | MLBBOS | 98 | .205/.276/.291 | 1 | 5 | 59 | -0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 25 | MLBBOS | 162 | .208/.280/.303 | 3 | 8 | 63 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL BOS Red | — | 195 | 167 | 42 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 30 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 251 | 352 | 353 | 706 | 102 | 297 | 15 | 13 | 320 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 22 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 429 | 333 | 762 | 333 | 5 | 14 | 342 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 179 | 146 | 32 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 47 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 219 | 363 | 308 | 671 | 89 | 323 | 26 | 17 | 318 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 276 | 224 | 46 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 86 | 6 | 30 | 6 | 205 | 353 | 304 | 656 | 98 | 324 | 31 | 16 | 311 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 84 | 76 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 197 | 274 | 224 | 497 | 26 | 319 | 35 | 10 | 237 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 347 | 301 | 59 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 41 | 133 | 2 | 24 | 6 | 196 | 297 | 262 | 559 | 66 | 333 | 38 | 12 | 262 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 463 | 406 | 97 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 112 | 4 | 42 | 7 | 239 | 325 | 308 | 633 | 69 | 316 | 24 | 10 | 291 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 355 | 301 | 72 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 43 | 107 | 4 | 25 | 7 | 239 | 341 | 369 | 710 | 130 | 337 | 30 | 12 | 319 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Red | — | 195 | 175 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 36 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 166 | 244 | 223 | 466 | 57 | 197 | 18 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 22 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 381 | 316 | 697 | 315 | 5 | 9 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 179 | 158 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 68 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 146 | 246 | 196 | 442 | 51 | 254 | 38 | 10 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 276 | 238 | 38 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 119 | 6 | 30 | 6 | 160 | 273 | 231 | 504 | 71 | 302 | 43 | 11 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 84 | 78 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 192 | 250 | 218 | 468 | 26 | 327 | 40 | 7 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 347 | 314 | 41 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 181 | 2 | 24 | 6 | 131 | 206 | 172 | 378 | 41 | 286 | 52 | 8 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 463 | 421 | 98 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 140 | 4 | 42 | 7 | 233 | 295 | 287 | 582 | 55 | 328 | 30 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 355 | 314 | 66 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 131 | 4 | 25 | 7 | 210 | 289 | 309 | 598 | 99 | 323 | 37 | 9 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Red | — | 195 | 175 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 36 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 166 | 244 | 223 | 466 | 57 | 206 | 18 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL BOS Red | — | 195 | 167 | 42 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 30 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 251 | 352 | 353 | 706 | 102 | 297 | 15 | 13 | 320 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 201 | 177 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 69 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 164 | 260 | 209 | 469 | 45 | 266 | 34 | 10 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 201 | 164 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 48 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 232 | 370 | 311 | 681 | 79 | 325 | 24 | 16 | 321 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 276 | 238 | 38 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 119 | 6 | 30 | 6 | 160 | 273 | 231 | 504 | 71 | 314 | 43 | 11 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 276 | 224 | 46 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 86 | 6 | 30 | 6 | 205 | 353 | 304 | 656 | 98 | 324 | 31 | 16 | 311 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 431 | 393 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 216 | 2 | 31 | 7 | 142 | 213 | 181 | 393 | 38 | 303 | 50 | 8 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 431 | 377 | 74 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 162 | 2 | 31 | 7 | 196 | 292 | 255 | 547 | 58 | 330 | 38 | 11 | 257 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 463 | 421 | 98 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 140 | 4 | 42 | 7 | 233 | 295 | 287 | 582 | 55 | 337 | 30 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 463 | 406 | 97 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 112 | 4 | 42 | 7 | 239 | 325 | 308 | 633 | 69 | 316 | 24 | 10 | 291 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 355 | 314 | 66 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 131 | 4 | 25 | 7 | 210 | 289 | 309 | 598 | 99 | 331 | 37 | 9 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 355 | 301 | 72 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 43 | 107 | 4 | 25 | 7 | 239 | 341 | 369 | 710 | 130 | 337 | 30 | 12 | 319 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Red | — | 195 | 175 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 36 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 166 | 244 | 223 | 466 | 57 | 197 | 18 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 201 | 176 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 69 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 165 | 260 | 210 | 470 | 45 | 261 | 34 | 10 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 276 | 237 | 38 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 119 | 6 | 30 | 6 | 160 | 273 | 232 | 505 | 72 | 302 | 43 | 11 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 431 | 393 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 216 | 2 | 31 | 7 | 142 | 213 | 181 | 393 | 38 | 294 | 50 | 8 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 463 | 423 | 98 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 140 | 4 | 42 | 7 | 232 | 295 | 286 | 581 | 54 | 328 | 30 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 355 | 317 | 66 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 131 | 4 | 25 | 7 | 208 | 289 | 306 | 595 | 98 | 323 | 37 | 9 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 431 | 393 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 216 | 2 | 31 | 7 | 142 | 213 | 181 | 393 | 38 | 294 | 50 | 8 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 463 | 423 | 98 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 140 | 4 | 42 | 7 | 232 | 295 | 286 | 581 | 54 | 328 | 30 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 355 | 317 | 66 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 131 | 4 | 25 | 7 | 208 | 289 | 306 | 595 | 98 | 323 | 37 | 9 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | BOS | 2% | 465 | 421 | 81 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 37 | 156 | 4 | 24 | 5 | 194 | 266 | 267 | 533 | 73 | 290 | 34 | 8 | 246 | 52 | -26 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | BOS | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 270 | 273 | 543 | 75 | 298 | 25 | 0 | 250 | 52 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | BOS | 31% | 317 | 285 | 57 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 104 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 200 | 272 | 285 | 557 | 85 | 291 | 33 | 8 | 255 | 59 | -15 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | BOS | 45% | 364 | 328 | 67 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 117 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 203 | 276 | 297 | 573 | 94 | 292 | 32 | 8 | 262 | 63 | -16 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | BOS | 51% | 390 | 352 | 72 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 123 | 3 | 19 | 4 | 206 | 279 | 304 | 583 | 99 | 292 | 32 | 8 | 266 | 66 | -16 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | BOS | 31% | 98 | 89 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 205 | 276 | 291 | 568 | 87 | 300 | 33 | 8 | 260 | 59 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | BOS | 45% | 162 | 147 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 208 | 280 | 303 | 584 | 95 | 300 | 32 | 8 | 266 | 63 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | BOS | 51% | 199 | 179 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 63 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 211 | 283 | 311 | 594 | 100 | 300 | 32 | 8 | 270 | 66 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 459 | 415 | 87 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 147 | 4 | 23 | 5 | 210 | 281 | 304 | 584 | 94 | 304 | 32 | 8 | 267 | 50 | -20 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 588 | 124 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 52 | 208 | 6 | 33 | 7 | 211 | 282 | 306 | 588 | 95 | 306 | 32 | 8 | 267 | 50 | -28 | +4 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3202 | 2872 | 549 | 74 | 19 | 32 | 270 | 1125 | 31 | 215 | 50 | 191 | 268 | 264 | 531 | 72 | 298 | 35 | 8 | 243 | 50 | -59 | +7 | +0 | +5 | +28 | -2.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 111 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 55 | 228 | 6 | 44 | 10 | 190 | 267 | 261 | 528 | 70 | 297 | 35 | 8 | 243 | 50 | -30 | +4 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 355 PAwOBA .314 → .271 (−44)K% 30.1% → 36.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 8.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.13% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | ×1.042 | 25.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.978 | ×1.042 | 4.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | ×1.042 | 1.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 3.35% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .314 → .271; ISO .130 → .107; BABIP .337 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 463 PAwOBA .287 → .259 (−27)K% 24.2% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.19% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.37% | ÷1.055 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 7.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.87% | ÷0.962 | ×0.970 | ×1.017 | ×1.050 | 28.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.08% | ÷1.109 | ×0.860 | ×1.017 | ×1.050 | 3.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.141 | ×0.950 | ×1.017 | ×1.050 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.36% | ÷1.119 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 1.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 92, 2B 122, 3B 128, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .287 → .259; ISO .069 → .053; BABIP .316 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Greenville Drive · 347 PAwOBA .258 → .179 (−79)K% 38.3% → 52.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.33% | ÷0.960 | ×1.310 | — | — | 52.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.82% | ÷0.924 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 8.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.013 | ×0.870 | ×0.971 | ×1.042 | 24.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.98% | ÷1.037 | ×0.780 | ×0.971 | ×1.042 | 2.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.79% | ÷0.927 | ×0.850 | ×0.971 | ×1.042 | 1.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.043 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 1.57% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 85, K 92, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .258 → .179; ISO .066 → .047; BABIP .333 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 84 PAwOBA .232 → .205 (−27)K% 34.5% → 40.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.52% | ÷1.033 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.025 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 6.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.66% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×1.043 | ×1.050 | 29.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.165 | ×0.860 | ×1.043 | ×1.050 | 3.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.043 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .232 → .205; ISO .026 → .020; BABIP .319 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ASalem Red Sox · 276 PAwOBA .304 → .233 (−71)K% 31.2% → 43.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.16% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.30% | ÷1.052 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 11.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.17% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.46% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×1.045 | 21.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.25% | ÷0.942 | ×0.830 | ×1.000 | ×1.045 | 6.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.000 | ×1.045 | 2.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.45% | ÷0.999 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.21% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .304 → .233; ISO .098 → .078; BABIP .324 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Red Sox · 179 PAwOBA .311 → .207 (−104)K% 26.3% → 37.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.26% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.76% | ÷1.080 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 9.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.68% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.20% | ÷1.010 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 17.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.229 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 6.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷0.908 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 0.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.943 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 102, 2B 146, 3B 82, K 100, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .311 → .207; ISO .089 → .055; BABIP .323 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASalem Red Sox · 22 PAwOBA .350 → .328 (−22)K% 4.5% → 6.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 4.55% | ÷0.930 | ×1.360 | — | — | 6.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 10.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.29% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 33.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.873 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 121, K 86, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .350 → .328; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL BOS Red · 195 PAwOBA .314 → .212 (−103)K% 15.4% → 18.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.31% | ÷1.006 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 8.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.51% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.63% | ÷0.977 | ×0.680 | ×0.970 | ×1.022 | 15.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.38% | ÷1.027 | ×0.600 | ×0.970 | ×1.022 | 2.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.92% | ÷0.959 | ×0.600 | ×0.970 | ×1.022 | 1.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.73% | ÷1.790 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.20% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 258, 1B 95, 2B 105, 3B 92, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .314 → .212; ISO .102 → .057; BABIP .297 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).