Jedixson Paez

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

AARP40-MANROOKIEFG #508Pre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	22	12	97	3.17	2.61	29.0%	3.1%	—	K 22.0% · BB 3.6% · FIP 3.57
2025	21	A+BOS	7	7	19	2.79	3.88	27.7%	3.6%	—	K 21.3% · BB 4.2% · FIP 4.78
2026	22	MIX3 levels	27	13	82	4.70	3.76	27.2%	3.9%	0.8	K 22.9% · BB 4.0% · FIP 4.49
2027PROJ	23	MLBBOS	11	11	60	4.12	4.06	21.4%	2.0%	0.6
2028PROJ48% MLB	24	MLBBOS	7	7	37	4.01	3.95	22.2%	2.5%	0.4
2029PROJ69% MLB	25	MLBBOS	9	9	53	3.96	3.91	22.7%	2.9%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$3M2031Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%24

FB Velo14

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 9, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 77%

CompsJeremy Hellickson (age 23) · John Patterson (age 24) · Juan Gutierrez (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.12

FIP4.06

K%21.4%

BB%2.0%

K-BB%19.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL—70

CMD5570

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p2421.7%

p1014.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.418

CT (9%)

CH (33%)

SI (11%)

CU (17%)

FB-2.9 (41%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.8M
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-3	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	13	13	50	204	49	9	5	100%	3.9	16.3%	5.5%	10.8%	2.4%	2.86	3.71	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Blue	13	13	50	204	49	9	5	100%	3.9	24.0%	4.4%	19.6%	2.5%	2.86	2.98	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	13	10	57	233	49	13	2	77%	4.4	14.3%	7.0%	7.3%	1.3%	3.63	3.48	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	13	10	57	233	49	13	2	77%	4.4	21.0%	5.6%	15.5%	0.9%	3.63	2.52	—
2023	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	18	16	84	338	73	12	7	89%	4.7	16.0%	4.2%	11.8%	2.7%	3.31	3.76	—
2023	19	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	18	16	84	338	73	12	7	89%	4.7	21.6%	3.6%	18.0%	2.1%	3.31	2.87	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	12	97	390	113	12	11	55%	4.4	22.0%	3.6%	18.5%	3.4%	3.17	3.57	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	12	97	390	113	12	11	55%	4.4	22.0%	3.6%	18.5%	3.4%	3.17	3.57	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	12	97	390	113	12	11	55%	4.4	29.0%	3.1%	25.9%	2.8%	3.17	2.61	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	7	7	19	83	23	3	4	100%	2.8	21.3%	4.2%	17.2%	5.4%	2.79	4.78	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	7	7	19	83	23	3	4	100%	2.8	21.3%	4.2%	17.2%	5.4%	2.79	4.78	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	7	7	19	83	23	3	4	100%	2.8	27.7%	3.6%	24.1%	4.8%	2.79	3.88	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	13	82	331	90	13	15	48%	3.0	22.9%	4.0%	18.9%	5.1%	4.70	4.49	+0.1
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	13	82	331	90	13	15	48%	3.0	22.9%	4.0%	18.9%	5.1%	4.70	4.49	+0.1
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	13	82	331	90	13	15	48%	3.0	27.2%	3.9%	23.3%	4.5%	4.70	3.76	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	1	12	57	8	5	4	20%	2.3	14.0%	8.8%	5.3%	7.0%	10.80	7.47	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	BOS	11	11	60	253	54	5	10	100%	5.5	21.4%	2.0%	19.4%	3.9%	4.12	4.06	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	76	321	71	8	12	100%	5.4	22.2%	2.5%	19.7%	3.8%	4.06	4.00	+0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	77	325	74	9	12	100%	5.9	22.7%	2.9%	19.8%	3.7%	4.01	3.96	+0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	77	325	74	10	12	100%	5.9	22.9%	3.1%	19.8%	3.7%	3.99	3.96	+0.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	76	320	73	11	12	100%	5.8	22.9%	3.4%	19.5%	3.7%	4.00	4.01	+0.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	74	310	71	11	12	100%	6.1	22.8%	3.5%	19.2%	3.8%	4.05	4.09	+0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	70	296	66	11	12	100%	5.9	22.2%	3.8%	18.4%	4.0%	4.17	4.25	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	66	279	60	11	12	100%	6.0	21.5%	4.1%	17.4%	4.2%	4.34	4.46	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	37	156	35	4	6	100%	5.3	22.2%	2.5%	19.7%	3.7%	4.01	3.95	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	53	224	51	6	8	100%	5.9	22.7%	2.9%	19.8%	3.6%	3.96	3.91	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	62	262	60	8	9	100%	6.2	22.9%	3.1%	19.8%	3.6%	3.94	3.91	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	65	274	63	9	10	100%	5.9	22.9%	3.4%	19.5%	3.6%	3.95	3.96	+0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	66	279	63	10	10	100%	6.0	22.8%	3.5%	19.2%	3.7%	4.00	4.04	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	64	270	60	10	10	100%	5.8	22.2%	3.8%	18.4%	3.9%	4.12	4.20	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	61	258	55	10	10	100%	6.1	21.5%	4.1%	17.4%	4.0%	4.28	4.40	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	70	420	1782	396	63	68	95%	5.7	22.2%	3.6%	18.6%	3.8%	4.23	3.78	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	848	188	30	32	95%	5.7	22.2%	3.6%	18.6%	3.8%	4.23	3.78	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		100	71	390	1579	300	72	52	71%	3.9	19.0%	4.6%	14.4%	3.3%	3.53	3.87	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	36	200	810	154	37	27	71%	3.9	19.0%	4.6%	14.4%	3.3%	3.53	3.87	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jedixson Paez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.06	21.4%	2.0%	3.9%	—	3.97	22.6%	19.8%	230	-0.09	—	—	—
Jeremy Hellickson R 2010 · 3.63 FIP	23	SW	3.63	22.1%	4.0%	3.5%	.257	4.40	16.7%	9.1%	540	+0.77	3.63	1,286	68
John Patterson R 2002 · 4.82 FIP	24	SP-	4.82	25.2%	5.7%	5.7%	.256	3.85	21.6%	13.7%	352	-0.97	2.90	454	66
Juan Gutierrez R 2007 · 3.96 FIP	24	SW	3.96	17.2%	4.3%	3.2%	.314	3.83	20.4%	12.6%	128	-0.13	2.67	379	63
Miller Hogan R 2019 · 3.39 FIP	23	SW	3.39	18.4%	3.4%	2.6%	.294	4.94	19.3%	14.1%	89	+1.55	3.39	168	62
Clay Chandler R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP-	4.97	18.3%	6.0%	4.8%	.319	4.89	14.8%	8.8%	293	-0.08	4.49	328	62
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	61
Anthony DeSclafani R 2014 · 3.61 FIP	24	SW	3.61	17.8%	3.4%	2.9%	.324	3.62	19.8%	14.0%	321	+0.01	3.38	1,014	61
Landon Knack R 2021 · 3.68 FIP	24	SP-	3.68	26.1%	3.7%	4.2%	.284	4.06	22.5%	14.2%	302	+0.38	3.64	556	60
Bobby Milacki R 2021 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	17.4%	4.6%	3.2%	.325	4.57	18.0%	10.0%	193	+0.59	2.87	320	60
Evan McKendry R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	18.4%	5.5%	3.6%	.256	5.08	18.4%	12.2%	324	+0.88	4.20	474	59
Kevin Gadea R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	21	SP-	3.10	24.8%	6.0%	2.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	196	58
Mariano Salomon R 2024 · 3.48 FIP	21	SP-	3.48	21.0%	6.9%	2.3%	.282	4.85	18.5%	10.4%	67	+1.37	2.60	158	58
Travis Herrin R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP-	4.40	21.1%	7.3%	3.9%	.315	4.92	17.6%	5.2%	106	+0.52	4.40	236	58
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	58
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	58
Jake Odorizzi R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	18.0%	6.6%	2.5%	.281	3.84	22.3%	15.2%	525	+0.04	3.16	1,246	57
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	57
Maiker Manuel R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	21	SW	4.62	15.3%	3.8%	4.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	148	57
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	57
German Nunez R 2024 · 3.00 FIP	22	SP	3.00	24.8%	6.8%	2.1%	.298	3.36	22.1%	11.2%	19	+0.36	2.27	151	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	73	22.2%	3.3%	1.51	4.22
Edward Mujica ('17)	2.8	69	19.1%	3.9%	1.30	3.92
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Gabe White ('05)	2.9	57	19.0%	5.9%	1.51	4.51
Luis DeLeon ('81-'89, 4 WAR*)	1.7	67	25.0%*	5.7%*	1.69*	3.69*
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*