Michael Vilchez

P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKLAD	20	27	4.05	2.12	31.4%	13.6%	—	K 21.3% · BB 16.9% · FIP 3.45
2025	21	ALAA	30	44	6.09	3.96	22.8%	12.9%	—	K 16.9% · BB 15.2% · FIP 4.94
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAA	50	52	5.68	5.68	17.8%	16.4%	-0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBLAA	22	23	5.42	5.34	18.9%	14.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBLAA	34	36	5.21	5.13	19.6%	13.4%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control30Command35

CompsJonathan Teaney (age 23) · Cody Scroggins (age 24) · Brett Lockwood (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.68

FIP5.68

K%17.8%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%1.4%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers Shoemaker	12	5	20	91	10	8	0	42%	1.7	7.5%	11.0%	-3.5%	0.0%	3.10	3.86	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Dodgers Shoemaker	12	5	20	91	10	8	0	42%	1.7	11.0%	8.8%	2.2%	0.0%	3.10	3.30	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	17	0	23	103	20	14	0	0%	1.3	13.2%	17.0%	-3.8%	0.0%	3.57	4.14	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	17	0	23	103	20	14	0	0%	1.3	19.4%	13.6%	5.8%	0.0%	3.57	3.19	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	17	0	26	117	27	15	1	0%	1.5	15.7%	16.0%	-0.3%	0.9%	3.81	4.30	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	17	0	26	117	27	15	1	0%	1.5	23.1%	12.8%	10.3%	0.9%	3.81	3.25	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	20	0	27	118	37	16	0	0%	1.3	21.3%	16.9%	4.4%	0.0%	4.05	3.45	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	20	0	27	118	37	16	0	0%	1.3	21.3%	16.9%	4.4%	0.0%	4.05	3.45	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	20	0	27	118	37	16	0	0%	1.3	31.4%	13.6%	17.8%	0.0%	4.05	2.12	—
2025	21	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	30	0	44	202	46	26	4	0%	1.5	16.9%	15.2%	1.7%	2.4%	6.09	4.94	—
2025	21	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	30	0	44	202	46	26	4	0%	1.5	16.9%	15.2%	1.7%	2.4%	6.09	4.94	—
2025	21	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	30	0	44	202	46	26	4	0%	1.5	22.8%	12.9%	9.9%	2.0%	6.09	3.96	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAA	50	0	52	220	39	36	6	0%	1.0	17.8%	16.4%	1.4%	3.0%	5.68	5.68	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	51	0	54	227	43	33	7	0%	1.1	18.9%	14.6%	4.3%	2.9%	5.42	5.34	-0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	52	0	54	230	45	31	7	0%	1.0	19.6%	13.4%	6.2%	2.9%	5.21	5.13	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	22	0	23	97	18	14	3	0%	1.0	18.9%	14.6%	4.3%	2.9%	5.42	5.34	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	34	0	36	152	30	20	4	0%	1.1	19.6%	13.4%	6.2%	2.9%	5.21	5.13	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	249	48	35	7	0%	1.1	19.3%	13.9%	5.4%	2.9%	5.29	4.83	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	119	24	0%	1.1	19.3%	13.9%	5.4%	2.9%	5.29	4.83	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		96	5	140	631	98	97	6	5%	1.5	15.5%	15.4%	0.2%	0.9%	4.44	4.26	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	7	200	901	140	138	9	5%	1.5	15.5%	15.4%	0.2%	0.9%	4.44	4.26	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Vilchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.68	17.8%	16.4%	3.0%	—	5.23	19.2%	5.2%	108	-0.45	—	—	—
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	91
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	91
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	90
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	90
Franklyn German R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.313	5.27	13.1%	0.1%	86	+0.10	3.37	152	89
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	88
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	88
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	88
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	87
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	87
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	87
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	87
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	86
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	86
Randy Messenger R 2005 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	16.3%	12.9%	2.8%	.281	3.93	13.8%	7.1%	137	-0.97	3.56	174	86
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	86
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	86
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	18.7%	14.8%	1.14	5.43
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*