Jan Caraballo — OGILVIE

Jan Caraballo P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 22 RHP 6'6" / 181 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%20.8%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	15	0	20	94	15	12	1	0%	1.3	10.9%	16.0%	-5.1%	1.4%	6.30	4.98	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	15	0	20	94	15	12	1	0%	1.3	16.0%	12.8%	3.2%	1.1%	6.30	4.05	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	15	0	20	92	12	14	1	0%	1.4	8.9%	19.0%	-10.2%	1.4%	4.43	5.54	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	15	0	20	92	12	14	1	0%	1.4	13.0%	15.2%	-2.2%	1.1%	4.43	4.62	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	18	0	31	139	25	19	0	0%	1.7	12.2%	17.1%	-4.9%	0.0%	4.02	4.23	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	18	0	31	139	25	19	0	0%	1.7	12.2%	17.1%	-4.9%	0.0%	4.02	4.23	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	18	0	31	139	25	19	0	0%	1.7	18.0%	13.7%	4.3%	0.0%	4.02	3.32	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	18	0	37	153	40	16	1	0%	2.0	17.8%	13.1%	4.7%	0.8%	2.45	3.71	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	18	0	37	153	40	16	1	0%	2.0	17.8%	13.1%	4.7%	0.8%	2.45	3.71	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	18	0	37	153	40	16	1	0%	2.0	26.1%	10.5%	15.7%	0.7%	2.45	2.58	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	12	0	15	66	17	4	1	0%	1.2	17.5%	7.6%	9.9%	1.9%	4.30	3.61	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	12	0	15	66	17	4	1	0%	1.2	17.5%	7.6%	9.9%	1.9%	4.30	3.61	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	12	0	15	66	17	4	1	0%	1.2	25.8%	6.1%	19.7%	1.5%	4.30	2.49	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	29	0	46	209	45	22	10	0%	1.6	15.9%	12.4%	3.5%	6.2%	7.04	6.74	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	29	0	46	209	45	22	10	0%	1.6	15.9%	12.4%	3.5%	6.2%	7.04	6.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	DET	29	0	46	209	45	22	10	0%	1.6	21.5%	10.5%	11.0%	4.8%	7.04	5.24	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	DET	44	0	47	197	43	20	6	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.1%	11.7%	2.9%	4.56	4.49	+0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	46	0	48	202	45	19	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	9.5%	13.0%	2.9%	4.43	4.36	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	DET	46	0	48	205	47	19	6	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.2%	13.7%	2.9%	4.33	4.27	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	DET	46	0	48	205	47	19	6	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.1%	14.0%	2.9%	4.29	4.25	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	DET	46	0	48	202	47	19	6	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.2%	13.9%	2.9%	4.29	4.29	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	DET	22	0	23	97	21	10	3	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.1%	11.7%	2.9%	4.56	4.49	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	31	0	33	139	31	13	4	0%	1.1	22.5%	9.5%	13.0%	2.9%	4.43	4.36	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	DET	37	0	39	165	38	15	5	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.2%	13.7%	2.9%	4.33	4.27	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	DET	40	0	42	177	41	16	5	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.1%	14.0%	2.9%	4.29	4.25	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	DET	41	0	43	182	42	17	5	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.2%	13.9%	2.9%	4.29	4.29	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		173	0	181	765	174	72	22	0%	1.0	22.8%	9.3%	13.4%	2.9%	4.36	3.94	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	79	24	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.3%	13.4%	2.9%	4.36	3.94	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		107	0	169	753	107	107	18	0%	1.6	14.3%	14.2%	0.0%	2.4%	4.85	5.02	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		127	0	200	891	127	127	21	0%	1.6	14.3%	14.2%	0.0%	2.4%	4.85	5.02	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jan Caraballo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	20.8%	10.9%	2.9%	—	4.37	22.4%	12.8%	143	-0.34	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	91
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	89
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	89
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	89
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	89
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	87
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	87
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	87
Jose Geraldo R 2022 · 3.85 FIP	22	SU	3.85	18.9%	9.9%	2.0%	.337	4.47	19.0%	9.9%	49	+0.62	3.14	154	87
Andrew Bash R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	18.0%	9.2%	2.1%	.273	4.21	14.9%	4.8%	146	+0.34	3.52	483	87
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	87
Will Kincanon R 2018 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	20.2%	11.5%	1.6%	.284	3.77	22.2%	10.0%	58	+0.02	3.75	122	86
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	86
Scott Williams R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	20.2%	10.6%	3.7%	.256	2.89	18.5%	11.2%	42	-1.88	2.89	119	86
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	86
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	86
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	86
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	42	22.6%	9.5%	1.11	4.40
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33