Davis Diaz

C Midland RockHounds
Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 188 lbs AA HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1005ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421AOAK68.226/.397/.2830069—.200/.353/.255
202522A+/AOAK432.231/.347/.3112849—.189/.274/.252
202623AAA/AA/A+/INTL2 orgs466.280/.386/.414101597—.245/.323/.343
2027PROJMLE24MLBOAK4.225/.304/.32600760.0
2028PROJ28% MLB25MLBOAK74.228/.307/.33711800.1
2029PROJ44% MLB26MLBOAK132.230/.308/.34222810.2
Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.8M2034Arb-2$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Whiff%91
Z-Con%89
Speed54
K%42
Chase%38
BB%31
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 7.9, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 83%
CompsJonathan Esqueda (age 24) · Abrahan Gutierrez (age 24) · Tyler Smith (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†76
AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .304 / .326
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%9
BABIP290
ISO102
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +3.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.40+0.4WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.20.30.30.20.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1.0M+$0.3M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.9M+$0.3M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2033Arb-1$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2034Arb-2$5M———
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $2M +$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202421 AStockton Ports — 6853 12300 897 00 226397283680 57273 1312 334 69 — — — — — —
202522 A+Lansing Lugnuts — 242211 46702 28381 21 218312280592 62254 1612 276 29 — — — — — —
202522 AStockton Ports — 190152 381030 29286 63 250390355746 105299 1515 342 74 — — — — — —
202623 AAALas Vegas Aviators — 8174 16102 7200 21 216284311595 95269 259 273 38 — — — — — —
202623 AAMidland RockHounds — 217185 54814 24337 102 292394411804 119336 1511 365 101 — — — — — —
202623 A+Lansing Lugnuts — 127106 321103 19162 10 302417491908 189333 1315 405 109 — — — — — —
202623 INTLMesa Solar Sox — 4131 9101 990 20 290450419869 129364 2222 390 150 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202421 A MLEStockton Ports — 6855 11300 6127 00 200353255607 55244 189 270 69 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLELansing Lugnuts — 242220 38502 19501 21 173242223464 50209 218 211 29 — — — — — —
202522 A MLEStockton Ports — 190162 34920 19386 63 210316290606 80261 2010 277 74 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 8176 14101 5240 21 184235237471 53261 306 225 38 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEMidland RockHounds — 217192 51713 17407 102 266347359707 94318 188 318 101 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLELansing Lugnuts — 127112 28902 13202 10 250339384723 134296 1610 330 109 — — — — — —
202421 A MLEStockton Ports — 6855 11300 6127 00 200353255607 55256 189 270 69 — — — — — —
202421 A RAWStockton Ports — 6853 12300 897 00 226397283680 57273 1312 334 69 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE2 teams — 432382 721322 38877 84 188274249523 60235 209 240 49 — — — — — —
202522 A+ RAW2 teams — 432363 841732 57667 84 231347311658 80273 1513 305 49 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE4 teams — 466416 1041918 39939 153 250328358686 108303 208 304 92 — — — — — —
202623 AA RAW4 teams — 466396 11121110 59789 153 280386414800 134326 1713 362 92 — — — — — —
202421 A MLEStockton Ports — 6855 11300 6127 00 200353255607 55244 189 270 69 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE2 teams — 432384 721322 38877 84 188274247521 60232 209 240 49 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE4 teams — 466415 1041918 39939 153 251328359687 108301 208 304 92 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A MLEStockton Ports — 6855 11300 6127 00 200353255607 55244 189 270 69 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE2 teams — 432384 721322 38877 84 188274247521 60232 209 240 49 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE4 teams — 466415 1041918 39939 153 251328359687 108301 208 304 92 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLEOAK 2% 380339 751416 32926 72 219298316614 97281 248 281 76 -11 +1 +0 +7 +8 0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXOAK 2% 44 1000 010 00 225304326630 101290 250 287 76 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLEOAK 28% 259231 521014 22624 41 222301326628 105282 248 286 80 -6 +0 +0 +5 +6 0.5
202926 MLB MLEOAK 44% 303269 601115 26735 51 223303332635 109282 249 289 81 -7 +1 +0 +5 +7 0.6
203027 MLB MLEOAK 50% 320285 641216 27775 41 223303333636 110282 248 289 82 -7 +0 +0 +6 +7 0.6
203128 MLB MLEOAK 55% 326290 651216 28795 41 223301332634 110282 249 288 81 -7 +0 -0 +6 +7 0.6
203229 MLB MLEOAK 56% 321286 641216 27785 31 221299330629 109281 248 286 80 -8 +0 -1 +6 +7 0.4
203330 MLB MLEOAK 56% 314280 611115 27774 21 218296322618 104279 259 281 77 -9 +0 -2 +6 +7 0.2
203431 MLB MLEOAK 57% 283253 551015 24714 13 214291312603 98276 258 275 72 -9 -1 -3 +5 +6 -0.2
202825 MLB CTXOAK 28% 7467 15301 6181 10 228307337644 109291 248 292 80 -2 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.1
202926 MLB CTXOAK 44% 132118 26502 11322 21 230308342651 113291 248 295 81 -3 +0 +0 +2 +3 0.2
203027 MLB CTXOAK 50% 161144 34713 14392 21 230308343652 114291 249 295 82 -4 +0 +0 +3 +3 0.3
203128 MLB CTXOAK 55% 178158 36713 15433 21 229307342649 114291 248 294 81 -4 +0 -0 +3 +4 0.3
203229 MLB CTXOAK 56% 178158 36713 15433 21 227305340645 112290 248 292 80 -4 +0 -1 +3 +4 0.2
203330 MLB CTXOAK 56% 176157 35703 15432 11 224301332633 107288 249 287 77 -5 -0 -1 +3 +4 0.1
203431 MLB CTXOAK 57% 160144 30602 13402 12 220296321618 102284 258 281 72 -5 -1 -1 +3 +3 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 1059946 21242317 8925815 117 224301329630 105288 248 291 76 -27 -1 -3 +19 +23 1.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650581 13026210 551589 74 224301327628 103288 248 291 76 -16 -0 -2 +12 +14 0.7
Career— MLE — 33022934 6501211150 28276058 5017 222302321624 100280 239 281 76 -59 +1 -5 +42 +51 3.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650578 12824210 5615011 103 221303322625 100280 239 281 76 -16 +0 -1 +12 +14 0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 217 PAwOBA .358 → .318 (−40)K% 15.2% → 18.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.21%÷1.000×1.220——18.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.06%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0277.95%
HBP% /PA3.23%—×0.870—×1.0272.88%
Singles /BIP26.97%÷1.000×0.920×1.022×1.02726.04%
Doubles /BIP5.26%÷1.000×0.840×1.022×1.0274.64%
Triples /BIP0.66%÷1.000×0.940×1.022×1.0270.65%
Home runs /BIP2.63%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0272.16%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .358 → .318; ISO .119 → .103; BABIP .336 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 127 PAwOBA .394 → .330 (−64)K% 12.6% → 16.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.60%÷1.000×1.270——16.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.96%÷1.000×0.710—×0.99810.60%
HBP% /PA1.57%—×0.790—×0.9981.24%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.000×0.920×1.021×0.99818.76%
Doubles /BIP12.22%÷1.000×0.810×1.021×0.99810.09%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850×1.021×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP3.33%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9982.66%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .394 → .330; ISO .189 → .156; BABIP .333 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 81 PAwOBA .266 → .225 (−40)K% 24.7% → 29.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.69%÷1.000×1.200——29.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.64%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0506.26%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP24.07%÷1.000×0.930×1.011×1.05023.76%
Doubles /BIP1.85%÷1.000×0.830×1.011×1.0501.63%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×1.011×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP3.70%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0502.72%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .266 → .225; ISO .095 → .069; BABIP .269 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 242 PAwOBA .272 → .211 (−61)K% 15.7% → 20.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.70%÷0.969×1.270——20.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.57%÷1.048×0.710—×1.0127.94%
HBP% /PA0.41%—×0.790—×1.0120.33%
Singles /BIP21.39%÷1.078×0.920×0.983×1.01218.16%
Doubles /BIP4.05%÷1.199×0.810×0.983×1.0122.72%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.850×0.983×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP1.16%÷0.921×0.800—×1.0121.02%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 116, 2B 140, 3B 130, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .272 → .211; ISO .062 → .047; BABIP .254 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AStockton Ports · 190 PAwOBA .340 → .277 (−63)K% 14.7% → 19.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.74%÷1.011×1.360——19.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.26%÷1.029×0.690——10.23%
HBP% /PA3.16%—×0.780——2.46%
Singles /BIP20.16%÷1.003×0.920×0.985—18.21%
Doubles /BIP8.06%÷0.990×0.830×0.985—6.66%
Triples /BIP2.42%÷1.150×0.910×0.985—1.89%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.113×0.800——0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 101, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .340 → .277; ISO .105 → .088; BABIP .299 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AStockton Ports · 68 PAwOBA .327 → .270 (−57)K% 13.2% → 17.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.24%÷1.015×1.360——17.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.76%÷1.021×0.690—×1.0158.07%
HBP% /PA10.29%—×0.780—×1.0158.15%
Singles /BIP20.45%÷1.004×0.920×0.979×1.01518.63%
Doubles /BIP6.82%÷0.979×0.830×0.979×1.0155.74%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.910×0.979×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.164×0.800—×1.0150.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 101, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .327 → .270; ISO .057 → .049; BABIP .273 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .