Gage Ziehl

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 223 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #700MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX3 levels	22	21	107	4.12	2.80	19.8%	4.2%	—	K 14.8% · BB 5.1% · FIP 3.67
2026	23	MIX2 levels	25	25	122	4.28	3.62	24.7%	4.8%	—	K 20.3% · BB 5.0% · FIP 4.35
2027PROJ	24	MLBBOS	14	14	81	4.23	4.23	18.3%	3.3%	0.6
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBBOS	8	8	49	4.13	4.10	19.3%	3.6%	0.4
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBBOS	12	12	74	4.10	4.08	19.8%	3.9%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$4M2033Arb-3$4M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff47Control55Command70FB velo40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 80%

CompsNick Fraze (age 24) · Shumpei Yoshikawa (age 24) · Dustin Crenshaw (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 97

ERA4.23

FIP4.23

K%18.3%

BB%3.3%

K-BB%15.0%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—55

CMD7070

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.1M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$10M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	107	455	90	19	7	95%	4.9	14.8%	5.1%	9.7%	2.1%	4.12	3.67	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	107	455	90	19	7	95%	4.9	14.8%	5.1%	9.7%	2.1%	4.12	3.67	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	21	107	455	90	19	7	95%	4.9	19.8%	4.2%	15.6%	1.5%	4.12	2.80	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	122	522	129	25	19	100%	4.9	20.3%	5.0%	15.3%	4.3%	4.28	4.35	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	122	522	129	25	19	100%	4.9	20.3%	5.0%	15.3%	4.3%	4.28	4.35	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	122	522	129	25	19	100%	4.9	24.7%	4.8%	19.9%	3.6%	4.28	3.62	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BOS	14	14	81	342	63	11	12	100%	5.8	18.3%	3.3%	15.0%	3.4%	4.23	4.23	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	111	470	91	17	16	100%	5.9	19.3%	3.6%	15.7%	3.4%	4.18	4.15	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	111	470	93	18	16	100%	5.9	19.8%	3.9%	15.9%	3.3%	4.15	4.13	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	110	462	92	19	16	100%	6.1	19.9%	4.2%	15.7%	3.4%	4.16	4.17	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	106	448	89	20	15	100%	5.9	19.8%	4.4%	15.4%	3.5%	4.22	4.26	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	101	428	84	20	15	100%	6.0	19.6%	4.6%	15.0%	3.6%	4.32	4.39	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	95	402	77	20	15	100%	6.0	19.2%	4.9%	14.3%	3.8%	4.47	4.57	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	89	375	71	20	15	100%	5.9	18.8%	5.3%	13.6%	4.0%	4.65	4.77	+0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	82	347	64	20	15	100%	5.9	18.4%	5.7%	12.7%	4.3%	4.86	4.99	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	49	207	40	8	7	100%	6.1	19.3%	3.6%	15.7%	3.3%	4.13	4.10	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	74	312	62	12	10	100%	6.2	19.8%	3.9%	15.9%	3.2%	4.10	4.08	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	85	359	71	15	12	100%	6.1	19.9%	4.2%	15.7%	3.3%	4.11	4.12	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	89	376	75	17	13	100%	5.9	19.8%	4.4%	15.4%	3.4%	4.17	4.21	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	89	376	74	17	13	100%	5.9	19.6%	4.6%	15.0%	3.5%	4.27	4.34	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	86	363	70	18	13	100%	6.1	19.2%	4.9%	14.3%	3.7%	4.42	4.52	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	81	342	64	18	13	100%	5.8	18.8%	5.3%	13.6%	3.9%	4.59	4.71	+0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	76	321	59	18	13	100%	5.8	18.4%	5.7%	12.7%	4.2%	4.80	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		105	105	630	2659	515	123	95	100%	6.0	19.4%	4.6%	14.8%	3.6%	4.33	4.01	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	164	39	30	100%	6.0	19.4%	4.6%	14.8%	3.6%	4.33	4.01	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		47	46	229	977	174	49	32	98%	4.9	17.8%	5.1%	12.7%	3.3%	4.21	4.03	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	40	200	853	152	43	28	98%	4.9	17.8%	5.1%	12.7%	3.3%	4.21	4.03	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gage Ziehl (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.23	18.3%	3.3%	3.4%	—	4.15	19.7%	15.8%	332	-0.08	—	—	—
Nick Fraze R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	24	SP	3.86	17.3%	3.5%	3.2%	.261	5.11	17.2%	6.8%	157	+1.25	3.86	278	85
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	81
Dustin Crenshaw R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	27	SP	3.24	16.4%	2.7%	2.2%	.280	3.67	13.9%	11.4%	168	+0.43	3.24	238	79
Boof Bonser R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	20.0%	5.7%	4.3%	.294	4.33	17.8%	10.5%	291	-0.16	3.80	417	79
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	78
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	77
Thomas Harrington R 2024 · 3.31 FIP	23	SP	3.31	20.6%	4.1%	2.6%	.271	5.04	18.2%	10.3%	206	+1.73	3.31	448	77
Brian Van Belle R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	24	SP	4.86	19.1%	4.5%	5.1%	.332	5.12	18.2%	12.0%	372	+0.26	3.08	556	77
Alex Faedo R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.79	3.50	459	76
Raynel Espinal R 2016 · 3.39 FIP	24	SP	3.39	14.6%	3.5%	2.0%	.330	3.01	25.6%	18.2%	216	-0.38	2.48	507	76
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	76
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	76
Nathan Wiles R 2022 · 4.88 FIP	24	SP	4.88	15.6%	3.6%	4.8%	.266	4.44	17.6%	11.5%	311	-0.44	4.17	399	76
Luc Rennie R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	18.7%	5.5%	2.2%	.352	5.56	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.11	3.45	265	75
Jayden Murray R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SP	4.14	20.8%	5.3%	3.9%	.167	4.90	16.9%	6.9%	145	+0.76	3.74	365	75
Andy Sonnanstine R 2007 · 3.95 FIP	24	SP	3.95	17.5%	4.3%	3.2%	.320	4.29	14.4%	8.8%	374	+0.34	3.77	540	75
Juan Nicasio R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	24	SP	3.40	19.4%	5.0%	2.4%	.298	4.18	17.2%	9.3%	309	+0.78	2.46	719	74
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	74
Duncan Robinson R 2018 · 3.41 FIP	24	SP	3.41	16.3%	4.4%	2.1%	.324	4.10	10.2%	0.3%	23	+0.69	3.41	279	74
Mason Adams R 2024 · 3.72 FIP	24	SP	3.72	18.2%	5.9%	2.6%	.290	3.83	22.6%	13.3%	78	+0.11	3.67	307	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	99	19.3%	4.4%	1.39	4.34
Scott Baker ('15)	5.3	133	18.9%	5.5%	1.23	4.26
Kevin Slowey ('14)	3.3	95	17.5%	3.9%	1.35	4.62
Rick Reed ('88-'03, 20 WAR*)	7.7	155	17.8%*	4.3%*	1.39*	4.03*
Matt Shoemaker ('21)	3.3	83	21.0%	6.3%	1.36	4.24
Elmer Ponder ('17-'21, 4 WAR*)	1.9	95	18.2%*	6.0%*	1.14*	4.07*
Johnny Marcum ('33-'39, 13 WAR*)	5.5	157	18.4%*	6.2%*	1.37*	4.18*