Tyson Neighbors

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #1031

Scout OFP48ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ASD	4	5	3.86	1.81	39.1%	17.4%	—	K 39.1% · BB 17.4% · FIP 2.00
2025	22	MIX2 levels	44	59	1.53	2.34	36.4%	10.1%	—	K 28.8% · BB 11.3% · FIP 3.11
2026	23	MIX2 levels	33	34	8.82	4.76	31.5%	19.3%	—	K 25.0% · BB 20.8% · FIP 5.28
2027PROJ	24	MLBBAL	86	90	4.90	4.90	27.3%	16.8%	-0.4
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBBAL	38	40	4.71	4.63	27.1%	14.6%	-0.0
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBBAL	58	61	4.62	4.58	27.0%	14.1%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff57Control45Command41FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsAndrew McInvale (age 24) · Caleb Simpson (age 25) · Craig Schlitter (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%27.3%

BB%16.8%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL4545

CMD3040

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	4	0	5	23	9	4	0	0%	1.2	39.1%	17.4%	21.7%	0.0%	3.86	2.00	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	4	0	5	23	9	4	0	0%	1.2	39.1%	17.4%	21.7%	0.0%	3.86	2.00	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	4	0	5	23	9	4	0	0%	1.2	39.1%	17.4%	21.7%	0.0%	3.86	1.81	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	59	228	83	23	4	0%	1.3	28.8%	11.3%	17.5%	1.8%	1.53	3.11	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	59	228	83	23	4	0%	1.3	28.8%	11.3%	17.5%	1.8%	1.53	3.11	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	59	228	83	23	4	0%	1.3	36.4%	10.1%	26.3%	1.8%	1.53	2.34	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	34	181	57	35	5	0%	1.0	25.0%	20.8%	4.2%	3.0%	8.82	5.28	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	34	181	57	35	5	0%	1.0	25.0%	20.8%	4.2%	3.0%	8.82	5.28	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	34	181	57	35	5	0%	1.0	31.5%	19.3%	12.2%	2.8%	8.82	4.76	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	86	0	90	380	104	64	11	0%	1.0	27.3%	16.8%	10.5%	2.9%	4.90	4.90	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	87	0	91	385	104	56	11	0%	1.0	27.1%	14.6%	12.5%	2.9%	4.71	4.63	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	87	0	91	385	104	54	11	0%	1.0	27.0%	14.1%	12.9%	2.9%	4.62	4.58	-0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	85	0	90	379	101	52	11	0%	1.1	26.7%	13.9%	12.8%	3.0%	4.60	4.60	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	83	0	87	367	97	51	11	0%	1.0	26.5%	13.9%	12.6%	3.1%	4.64	4.68	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	79	0	83	351	92	49	11	0%	1.1	26.2%	14.1%	12.1%	3.2%	4.74	4.81	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	74	0	78	330	92	45	11	0%	1.1	27.9%	13.6%	14.3%	3.4%	4.73	4.72	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	38	0	40	169	46	25	5	0%	1.1	27.1%	14.6%	12.5%	2.9%	4.71	4.63	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	58	0	61	258	69	36	7	0%	1.1	27.0%	14.1%	12.9%	2.9%	4.62	4.58	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	67	0	70	296	79	41	9	0%	1.0	26.7%	13.9%	12.8%	3.0%	4.60	4.60	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	70	0	73	308	82	43	9	0%	1.0	26.5%	13.9%	12.6%	3.1%	4.64	4.68	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	70	0	73	308	81	43	10	0%	1.0	26.2%	14.1%	12.1%	3.2%	4.74	4.81	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	67	0	70	296	82	40	10	0%	1.0	27.9%	13.6%	14.3%	3.4%	4.73	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		368	0	387	1634	439	228	50	0%	1.1	26.9%	14.0%	12.9%	3.1%	4.67	4.30	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	227	118	26	0%	1.1	26.9%	14.0%	12.9%	3.1%	4.67	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		81	0	97	432	120	67	10	0%	1.2	27.7%	15.6%	12.2%	2.2%	4.16	3.96	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		166	0	200	888	246	138	20	0%	1.2	27.7%	15.6%	12.2%	2.2%	4.16	3.96	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyson Neighbors (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	27.3%	16.8%	2.9%	—	4.60	26.9%	12.7%	272	-0.30	—	—	—
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	84
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	83
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	82
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	82
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	81
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	81
Shane Broyles R 2016 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	24.3%	15.3%	1.9%	.328	3.62	26.4%	17.1%	108	-0.41	3.34	218	81
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	81
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	81
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	80
Riley Ferrell R 2018 · 4.38 FIP	24	SU	4.38	24.1%	15.6%	2.5%	.333	4.21	23.1%	7.4%	55	-0.17	2.85	175	80
Justin Yeager R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	29.6%	15.8%	3.6%	.230	3.38	19.6%	9.2%	108	-1.20	3.32	265	80
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	80
Jonathan Sprinkle R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	24	SU	4.18	24.8%	16.3%	2.0%	.331	6.20	17.4%	-5.5%	26	+2.02	3.81	109	79
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	79
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	79
Johnathan Lavallee R 2024 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	26.2%	14.9%	1.7%	.245	4.50	21.2%	8.8%	95	+0.78	3.72	210	79
Isaac Stebens R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	24.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.328	4.14	21.1%	5.6%	50	+0.01	4.13	102	79
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	78
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	26.9%	14.4%	1.17	4.71
Tom Sunkel ('37-'44, -0 WAR*)	1.1	55	24.6%*	13.5%*	0.96*	5.12*
Ferdie Schupp ('13-'22, 4 WAR*)	5.3	132	27.9%*	13.2%*	1.25*	4.83*
Dan Warthen ('75-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.5	102	24.8%*	14.2%*	1.27*	4.86*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Michael Kopech ('25)	2.1	103	25.8%	12.5%	1.45	4.14