Travis Smith
P
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.2 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 72 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 116
ERA5.10
FIP5.10
K%11.3%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%1.3%
ROS IP72
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 102 | 420 | 73 | 29 | 1 | 100% | 4.1 | 13.0% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 0.2% | 3.43 | 3.15 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 102 | 420 | 73 | 29 | 1 | 100% | 4.1 | 17.4% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 0.2% | 3.43 | 2.65 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 15 | 5 | 51 | 242 | 41 | 31 | 11 | 33% | 3.4 | 13.2% | 14.5% | -1.4% | 5.6% | 7.76 | 6.91 | -1.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIL | 68 | 0 | 72 | 302 | 34 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.3% | 9.9% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 5.10 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.3% | 9.9% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 5.07 | 5.07 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 123 | 544 | 75 | 61 | 18 | — | — | 13.8% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 6.21 | 5.85 | -0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 11.3% | 9.9% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 5.07 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 73 | 310 | 43 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 14.0% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 4.92 | 4.85 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 74 | 314 | 49 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 15.7% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 4.78 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 74 | 314 | 52 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.6% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 4.68 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 73 | 309 | 52 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 4.67 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 6 | 6 | 32 | 135 | 19 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 5.3 | 14.0% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 4.89 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 32 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.7% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 4.75 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 41 | 24 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.6% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 4.65 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 44 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.8% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 4.64 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 35 | 34 | 203 | 856 | 137 | 81 | 21 | 97% | 5.8 | 16.0% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 4.71 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 135 | 80 | 21 | 99% | 5.8 | 16.0% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 4.71 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 40 | 30 | 153 | 662 | 86 | 69 | 15 | 75% | 3.8 | 13.0% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.87 | 4.52 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 39 | 200 | 863 | 113 | 90 | 19 | 75% | 3.8 | 13.0% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.87 | 4.52 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Travis Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.10 | 11.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | — | 4.73 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 222 | -0.37 | — | — | — |
| Brooks Auger R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .299 | 3.81 | 26.3% | 14.4% | 46 | -1.19 | 3.81 | 138 | 88 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.60 | 13.5% | 8.4% | 2.9% | .312 | 4.38 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 247 | -0.22 | 4.19 | 433 | 86 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 12.7% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .348 | 3.83 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 135 | -1.08 | 3.22 | 218 | 86 |
| Justin Dillon R 2027 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 11.8% | 8.8% | 3.7% | .265 | 4.34 | 15.6% | 9.1% | 124 | -0.89 | 3.63 | 239 | 84 |
| Ben Hansen R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.86 | 12.5% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .372 | 4.29 | 21.5% | 13.2% | 88 | -0.57 | 4.29 | 149 | 83 |
| Cesar Gomez R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.97 | 14.0% | 9.0% | 1.7% | .364 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 196 | +0.94 | 3.97 | 345 | 83 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.59 | 12.9% | 12.5% | 1.8% | .351 | 3.81 | 16.5% | 6.2% | 146 | -0.78 | 3.50 | 219 | 83 |
| Casey Steward R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 191 | 81 |
| Trenton Toplikar R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 14.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .248 | 5.60 | 16.5% | 6.4% | 123 | +1.30 | 4.30 | 232 | 81 |
| Tyler Schlaffer R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.5% | 13.3% | 3.1% | .298 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 154 | -1.01 | 4.01 | 363 | 81 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 81 |
| Nick Belzer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.55 | 12.8% | 4.2% | 63 | +0.32 | 4.23 | 112 | 80 |
| Sam Whiting R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.17 | 14.6% | 12.3% | 1.4% | .320 | 5.68 | 15.0% | -0.1% | 80 | +1.51 | 4.17 | 152 | 80 |
| Drew Steckenrider R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.10 | 14.2% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .318 | 3.05 | 29.7% | 20.4% | 175 | -1.05 | 2.65 | 392 | 80 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 80 |
| Braden Olthoff R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.57 | 12.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 108 | 80 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.25 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .251 | 4.81 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.56 | 3.93 | 268 | 80 |
| Jake Garland R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.06 | 11.3% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 6.3% | 115 | -0.71 | 3.52 | 330 | 80 |
| Bradley Brehmer R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.40 | 14.6% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .349 | 2.88 | 21.3% | 13.7% | 82 | -1.52 | 2.76 | 153 | 80 |
| Michael Ross R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.05 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .275 | 5.83 | 12.5% | 3.6% | 64 | +0.78 | 5.05 | 146 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 73 | 14.9% | 9.6% | 0.95 | 4.83 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |