Travis Smith — OGILVIE

Travis Smith P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%11.3%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%1.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$7M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	102	420	73	29	1	100%	4.1	13.0%	8.1%	4.9%	0.3%	3.43	3.17	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	102	420	73	29	1	100%	4.1	13.0%	8.1%	4.9%	0.3%	3.43	3.17	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	102	420	73	29	1	100%	4.1	17.4%	6.9%	10.5%	0.2%	3.43	2.65	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	25	7	73	349	54	47	16	28%	2.9	12.1%	15.1%	-3.0%	5.6%	7.49	7.07	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	25	7	73	349	54	47	16	28%	2.9	12.1%	15.1%	-3.0%	5.6%	7.49	7.07	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	MIL	10	3	40	191	34	21	8	30%	4.0	17.8%	11.0%	6.8%	4.2%	8.03	5.29	—
2026	23	AA RAW	MIL	15	4	33	158	20	26	8	27%	2.2	12.7%	16.5%	-3.8%	5.1%	6.82	6.89	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	MIL	6	0	6	25	3	2	1	0%	1.0	11.3%	9.5%	1.8%	2.4%	5.05	5.05	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	79	374	57	49	17	—	—	15.2%	13.2%	2.0%	4.4%	7.31	6.92	-1.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	94	399	55	36	10	100%	5.9	13.9%	9.1%	4.8%	2.4%	4.86	4.79	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	96	404	63	36	10	100%	6.0	15.5%	8.9%	6.7%	2.5%	4.71	4.64	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	96	404	66	35	10	100%	6.0	16.4%	8.8%	7.7%	2.5%	4.62	4.57	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	94	398	66	35	10	100%	5.9	16.6%	8.8%	7.8%	2.6%	4.60	4.60	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	91	386	63	35	10	100%	6.1	16.4%	9.0%	7.5%	2.7%	4.65	4.68	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	87	369	60	34	10	100%	5.8	16.2%	9.2%	7.0%	2.8%	4.75	4.81	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	82	347	55	33	10	100%	5.9	15.8%	9.5%	6.4%	3.0%	4.90	4.99	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	41	173	24	16	4	100%	5.9	13.9%	9.1%	4.8%	2.6%	4.93	4.86	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	63	266	41	24	7	100%	5.7	15.5%	8.9%	6.7%	2.6%	4.78	4.71	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	76	321	53	28	8	100%	5.8	16.4%	8.8%	7.7%	2.6%	4.69	4.64	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	80	338	56	30	9	100%	6.2	16.6%	8.8%	7.8%	2.7%	4.67	4.67	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	81	342	56	31	10	100%	5.8	16.4%	9.0%	7.5%	2.8%	4.72	4.75	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	79	334	54	31	10	100%	6.1	16.2%	9.2%	7.0%	2.9%	4.83	4.89	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	76	321	51	30	10	100%	5.8	15.8%	9.5%	6.4%	3.2%	4.98	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		83	83	497	2097	336	189	58	100%	6.0	16.0%	9.0%	7.0%	2.8%	4.79	4.42	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	135	76	23	100%	6.0	16.0%	9.0%	7.0%	2.8%	4.79	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		50	32	176	769	97	87	21	64%	3.5	12.6%	11.3%	1.3%	2.7%	5.12	4.94	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	36	200	876	110	99	24	64%	3.5	12.6%	11.3%	1.3%	2.7%	5.12	4.94	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Travis Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	11.3%	9.5%	2.4%	—	4.67	15.3%	6.4%	286	-0.38	—	—	—
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	89
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	85
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	84
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	84
Cesar Gomez R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	14.0%	9.0%	1.9%	.364	4.89	16.1%	7.0%	196	+0.78	4.11	345	83
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	83
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	83
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	82
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	82
Alex Eubanks R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	23	SW	3.85	11.1%	8.1%	1.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	219	82
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	82
Kyle Haynes R 2015 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	14.3%	10.3%	1.6%	.302	4.58	15.7%	5.8%	124	+0.50	4.08	240	82
Drew Steckenrider R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	24	SP-	4.04	14.2%	11.7%	1.2%	.318	3.01	29.7%	20.4%	175	-1.03	2.61	392	82
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	81
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	81
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	81
Jason Hursh R 2015 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	12.0%	9.1%	1.5%	.363	3.32	16.2%	5.3%	193	-0.76	3.28	338	81
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	80
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	80
Dane Myers R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	23	SW	5.32	12.2%	11.5%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	125	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	89	15.4%	9.1%	1.01	4.76
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77