Travis Smith
P
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
+0.8
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 2.0 · 2030
ERA4.29
FIP4.29
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.3%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%10.5%
IP102
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.0peak
2030
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 25 | 25 | 102 | 420 | 73 | 29 | 1 | 13.0% | 8.1% | 0.3% | 3.43 | 3.17 | +2.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 2 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 5.19 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 83 | 38 | 10 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 111 | 471 | 90 | 40 | 12 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 4.36 | 3.95 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 121 | 510 | 104 | 43 | 12 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 4.21 | 4.17 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 134 | 567 | 119 | 47 | 14 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 4.15 | 4.11 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 26 | 141 | 597 | 127 | 49 | 15 | 21.2% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 4.12 | 4.09 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 26 | 144 | 609 | 129 | 50 | 15 | 21.2% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 4.11 | 4.11 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 26 | 144 | 608 | 129 | 50 | 16 | 21.2% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 4.12 | 4.13 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 26 | 141 | 595 | 125 | 49 | 15 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.16 | 4.18 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 25 | 137 | 577 | 120 | 49 | 15 | 20.9% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.24 | +1.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 132 | 557 | 115 | 48 | 15 | 20.6% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.32 | +1.5 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 23 | 127 | 535 | 109 | 46 | 15 | 20.4% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.40 | +1.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 121 | 510 | 102 | 45 | 15 | 20.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.50 | +1.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 115 | 485 | 96 | 44 | 15 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.61 | +0.9 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 88 | 43 | 14 | 19.3% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 101 | 428 | 81 | 41 | 14 | 18.9% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.87 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 26 | 111 | 459 | 62 | 36 | 3 | 13.4% | 7.8% | 0.7% | 3.57 | 3.33 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 47 | 200 | 827 | 112 | 65 | 5 | 13.4% | 7.8% | 0.7% | 3.57 | 3.33 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Travis Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 2.4% | — | 4.12 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 397 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Logan Martin R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .278 | 4.06 | 15.9% | 4.9% | 91 | +0.11 | 3.95 | 193 | 95 |
| Daniel Blair R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 94 |
| Jordan Jackson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.10 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .323 | 5.51 | 13.1% | 1.7% | 74 | +1.41 | 4.10 | 193 | 93 |
| Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 93 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.73 | 3.99 | 188 | 93 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 92 |
| Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.45 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .323 | 3.96 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 65 | -0.49 | 2.91 | 175 | 92 |
| Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 17.9% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .285 | 4.64 | 14.8% | 4.8% | 153 | +0.30 | 3.44 | 393 | 92 |
| Brandon Birdsell R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.91 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.11 | 19.9% | 13.7% | 154 | +0.20 | 3.91 | 262 | 92 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 92 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 1.8% | .311 | 3.86 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 203 | -0.22 | 3.77 | 295 | 92 |
| Jeff Thompson R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 15.2% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.40 | 15.8% | 1.0% | 202 | -0.11 | 3.67 | 321 | 92 |
| Wil Crowe R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.65 | 15.0% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .278 | 4.65 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 266 | +0.00 | 4.00 | 518 | 91 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .263 | 4.85 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.23 | 3.77 | 350 | 91 |
| Tyler Wehrle R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.08 | 15.8% | 10.5% | 1.8% | .300 | 5.43 | 15.1% | 3.4% | 60 | +1.35 | 4.08 | 141 | 91 |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 91 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .277 | 3.52 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 44 | -0.88 | 3.52 | 128 | 91 |
| Joey Mancini R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .354 | 4.39 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 221 | +0.21 | 3.65 | 316 | 91 |
| Cameron Wagoner R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.09 | 14.8% | 9.6% | 1.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 100 | 91 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .299 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 159 | -0.07 | 3.48 | 383 | 91 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.0 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.9 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.6 | $16M | +$13M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.5 | $15M | +$12M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.3 | $14M | +$9M |
| Totals | $13M | $97M | +$84M | ||