Luke Hayden — OGILVIE

Luke Hayden P Dayton Dragons

+0.0 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs A+ peak 1.2 · 2029

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%18.7%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%5.0%

IP101

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.2peak

2029

STUF3030

CTRL2525

CMD2525

K†4045

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	4	0	5	21	6	2	0	—	—	—	3.60	—	—
2025	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	24	24	101	449	79	72	8	13.5%	18.4%	1.9%	4.09	5.35	-0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	1	1	4	20	4	3	0	—	—	—	4.50	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	CIN	18	18	101	428	70	73	12	16.3%	17.0%	2.7%	5.74	5.74	-0.5
2026 Total	23	MLB	CIN	—	—	105	448	74	76	12	16.5%	16.9%	2.6%	5.69	5.52	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	CIN	22	22	120	506	89	77	14	17.6%	15.2%	2.7%	5.47	5.39	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	CIN	24	24	133	563	103	79	15	18.4%	14.0%	2.7%	5.27	5.20	+0.2
2029	26	MLB	CIN	26	26	140	592	111	81	16	18.7%	13.7%	2.7%	5.16	5.13	+0.3
2030	27	MLB	CIN	26	26	143	605	114	82	17	18.9%	13.6%	2.7%	5.12	5.11	+0.3
2031	28	MLB	CIN	26	26	143	604	114	82	17	18.8%	13.6%	2.8%	5.13	5.14	+0.3
2032	29	MLB	CIN	25	25	140	591	110	81	17	18.7%	13.7%	2.8%	5.16	5.19	+0.2
2033	30	MLB	CIN	25	25	136	573	106	79	17	18.5%	13.8%	2.9%	5.21	5.25	+0.1
2034	31	MLB	CIN	24	24	131	553	101	77	16	18.2%	13.9%	3.0%	5.28	5.32	-0.0
2035	32	MLB	CIN	23	23	126	531	95	75	16	17.9%	14.1%	3.0%	5.36	5.41	-0.2
2036	33	MLB	CIN	22	22	120	507	89	72	16	17.6%	14.2%	3.1%	5.45	5.51	-0.3
2037	34	MLB	CIN	21	21	114	482	83	70	16	17.3%	14.4%	3.2%	5.55	5.62	-0.4
2038	35	MLB	CIN	20	20	108	454	77	67	15	16.9%	14.7%	3.3%	5.66	5.74	-0.5
2039	36	MLB	CIN	18	18	100	424	70	63	15	16.5%	14.9%	3.5%	5.79	5.87	-0.6
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			29	25	110	490	71	88	9	14.5%	17.9%	1.8%	4.08	5.12	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—			53	45	200	888	129	160	16	14.5%	17.9%	1.8%	4.08	5.12	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Hayden (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.74	16.3%	17.0%	2.7%	—	5.23	18.3%	4.0%	393	-0.51	—	—	—
Hayden Merda R 2026 · 5.20 FIP	23	SP-	5.20	16.1%	15.3%	2.8%	.325	4.97	21.5%	6.1%	54	-0.23	4.97	150	92
J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	23	SP-	4.96	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.11	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.15	4.70	195	89
Cobi Johnson R 2026 · 5.57 FIP	23	SP-	5.57	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.55	19.9%	1.4%	41	-1.02	4.55	140	89
Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.35 FIP	23	SP-	5.35	15.6%	14.0%	3.3%	.301	6.74	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.35	139	88
Chris Cortez R 2025 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	17.1%	18.8%	1.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	114	87
Mason Pelio R 2026 · 6.36 FIP	23	SP-	6.36	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.82	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.54	5.82	122	86
James McArthur R 2025 · 5.06 FIP	22	SP-	5.06	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.44	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.62	3.54	352	85
Elijah Dale R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	23	SP-	4.57	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.46	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.89	4.57	140	84
Chase Cohen R 2025 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.28	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.41	3.54	263	84
M.D. Johnson R 2027 · 5.29 FIP	24	SP-	5.29	19.1%	17.3%	2.9%	.201	4.63	17.9%	7.9%	293	-0.66	3.52	395	84
Max Bain R 2026 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	84
R.J. Freure R 2025 · 5.14 FIP	22	SP-	5.14	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	5.83	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.69	5.14	196	84
J.P. France R 2027 · 5.33 FIP	24	SP-	5.33	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.26	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.07	4.07	530	83
Adam Hill R 2025 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	15.6%	12.6%	2.9%	.297	6.14	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.15	4.99	213	83
Zach Willeman R 2026 · 5.58 FIP	23	SP-	5.58	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	.296	4.98	21.3%	7.8%	108	-0.60	4.06	264	83
Michael YaSenka R 2026 · 5.99 FIP	23	SP-	5.99	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.04	5.95	154	83
Austin Brice R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP-	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.70	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.91	3.45	542	82
Will Schomberg R 2026 · 4.84 FIP	23	SP-	4.84	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.85	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.85	206	82
Troy Miller R 2025 · 5.12 FIP	22	SP-	5.12	12.0%	12.7%	2.6%	.299	5.30	18.3%	8.3%	45	+0.18	5.12	168	82
Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 6.19 FIP	23	SP-	6.19	14.3%	14.7%	4.5%	.272	4.52	18.0%	7.5%	276	-1.67	4.06	498	82

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.