Luke Hayden
P
Dayton Dragons
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
A+
peak 0.7 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 165156vR 146
ERA6.54
FIP6.54
K%11.7%
BB%20.4%
K-BB%-8.7%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 4 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.6% | 9.5% | 19.0% | 0.0% | 3.60 | 1.89 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 4 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.6% | 9.5% | 19.0% | 0.0% | 3.60 | 1.90 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 24 | 24 | 101 | 449 | 79 | 72 | 8 | 100% | 4.2 | 13.5% | 18.4% | -4.9% | 1.8% | 4.09 | 5.27 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 24 | 24 | 101 | 449 | 79 | 72 | 8 | 100% | 4.2 | 17.6% | 16.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 4.09 | 4.70 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 9 | 6 | 29 | 137 | 34 | 21 | 2 | 67% | 3.2 | 18.8% | 17.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 6.28 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 32 | 56 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 11.7% | 20.4% | -8.7% | 2.7% | 6.54 | 6.54 | -1.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.7% | 20.4% | -8.7% | 2.7% | 6.54 | 6.54 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 93 | 411 | 66 | 77 | 9 | — | — | 16.1% | 18.7% | -2.6% | 2.3% | 6.46 | 5.93 | -0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 11.7% | 20.4% | -8.7% | 2.7% | 6.54 | 6.16 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 44 | 55 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 14.4% | 17.8% | -3.5% | 2.7% | 6.12 | 5.99 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 13 | 13 | 74 | 311 | 50 | 50 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.0% | 16.2% | -0.2% | 2.7% | 5.79 | 5.65 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 74 | 311 | 52 | 49 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 15.8% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.61 | 5.53 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 6 | 6 | 31 | 131 | 19 | 23 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 14.4% | 17.8% | -3.5% | 2.7% | 6.12 | 5.99 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 33 | 33 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.0% | 16.2% | -0.2% | 2.7% | 5.79 | 5.65 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 41 | 39 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.8% | 15.8% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.61 | 5.53 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 24 | 139 | 586 | 93 | 96 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.9% | 16.4% | -0.4% | 2.7% | 5.79 | 5.30 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 134 | 138 | 23 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.9% | 16.4% | -0.4% | 2.7% | 5.79 | 5.30 | +0.2 | ||
| Career | — | 37 | 30 | 135 | 607 | 93 | 109 | 10 | 81% | 3.6 | 15.3% | 18.0% | -2.7% | 1.6% | 4.53 | 4.99 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 44 | 200 | 899 | 137 | 162 | 15 | 81% | 3.6 | 15.3% | 18.0% | -2.7% | 1.6% | 4.53 | 4.99 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Hayden (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.54 | 11.7% | 20.4% | 2.7% | — | 5.72 | 15.7% | -0.9% | 220 | -0.82 | — | — | — |
| Mason Pelio R 2026 · 6.26 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.26 | 13.3% | 17.4% | 3.8% | .255 | 5.74 | 9.0% | -12.8% | 26 | -0.52 | 5.74 | 122 | 86 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.39 | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 137 | 85 |
| Johnny Hellweg R 2029 · 5.98 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.98 | 9.9% | 19.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 4.11 | 15.2% | 2.0% | 48 | -1.87 | 2.98 | 109 | 80 |
| Osman Gutierrez R 2025 · 6.14 FIP | 22 | SP | 6.14 | 13.9% | 16.2% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 189 | 74 |
| Drue Hackenberg R 2026 · 6.27 FIP | 23 | SP | 6.27 | 14.0% | 17.7% | 3.9% | .306 | 3.92 | 23.7% | 10.6% | 24 | -2.35 | 3.29 | 219 | 73 |
| Ronny Lopez R 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.49 | 10.3% | 17.6% | 1.9% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 121 | 73 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 6.75 FIP | 23 | SP | 6.75 | 17.9% | 19.5% | 4.9% | .296 | 4.76 | 18.4% | 0.8% | 147 | -1.99 | 4.13 | 217 | 73 |
| Michael YaSenka R 2026 · 5.84 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.84 | 18.1% | 15.0% | 4.3% | .288 | 5.74 | 18.8% | 6.1% | 58 | -0.10 | 5.74 | 154 | 73 |
| Osiris Ramirez R 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.47 | 12.6% | 19.4% | 1.8% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 104 | 72 |
| Zander Mueth R 2024 · 6.97 FIP | 21 | SP | 6.97 | 11.9% | 20.3% | 4.2% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 114 | 72 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.93 | 17.4% | 15.3% | 4.3% | .228 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 101 | 72 |
| Yoan López R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.60 | 10.4% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .282 | 3.58 | 25.5% | 17.4% | 153 | -2.02 | 2.16 | 377 | 72 |
| Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 6.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.03 | 14.3% | 14.7% | 4.2% | .272 | 4.53 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 276 | -1.50 | 4.09 | 498 | 71 |
| Drew Gagnon R 2028 · 5.78 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.6% | 12.6% | 3.8% | .313 | 4.01 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 311 | -1.77 | 3.74 | 534 | 71 |
| Sam Wolff R 2028 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.61 | 13.9% | 15.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 3.15 | 25.1% | 15.5% | 106 | -2.46 | 2.74 | 178 | 71 |
| Victor Mederos R 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.56 | 13.4% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .322 | 4.32 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 163 | -1.24 | 4.19 | 360 | 71 |
| J.P. France R 2027 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 71 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 6.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.58 | 18.6% | 18.8% | 4.9% | .322 | 4.51 | 26.9% | 7.8% | 94 | -2.07 | 3.43 | 129 | 70 |
| Adam Maier R 2026 · 5.75 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.75 | 13.1% | 11.7% | 4.2% | .280 | 4.71 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 60 | -1.04 | 3.63 | 239 | 70 |
| Yorman Galindez R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.60 | 15.9% | 17.0% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 176 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 73 | 14.7% | 17.5% | 1.03 | 6.01 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |