Luke Hayden — OGILVIE

Luke Hayden P Dayton Dragons

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs A+ peak 0.5 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 159151vR 143

ERA6.65

FIP6.65

K%11.7%

BB%21.1%

K-BB%-9.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL2525

CMD2525

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	4	0	5	21	6	2	0	0%	1.2	28.6%	9.5%	19.0%	0.0%	3.60	1.89	—
2024	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	4	0	5	21	6	2	0	0%	1.2	28.6%	9.5%	19.0%	0.0%	3.60	1.89	—
2024	21	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	4	0	5	21	6	2	0	0%	1.2	28.6%	9.5%	19.0%	0.0%	3.60	1.90	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	24	24	101	449	79	72	8	100%	4.2	13.5%	18.4%	-4.9%	2.0%	4.09	5.38	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	24	24	101	449	79	72	8	100%	4.2	13.5%	18.4%	-4.9%	2.0%	4.09	5.38	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	24	24	101	449	79	72	8	100%	4.2	17.6%	16.0%	1.6%	1.8%	4.09	4.70	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	19	15	72	321	84	45	10	79%	3.8	20.6%	15.7%	5.0%	4.0%	5.50	5.53	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	19	15	72	321	84	45	10	79%	3.8	20.6%	15.7%	5.0%	4.0%	5.50	5.53	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	CIN	1	1	1	7	1	2	0	100%	0.7	14.3%	28.6%	-14.3%	0.0%	54.00	5.51	—
2026	23	A RAW	CIN	3	2	8	40	11	5	1	67%	2.8	27.5%	12.5%	15.0%	2.5%	4.32	3.73	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	CIN	9	6	38	165	44	23	2	67%	4.2	26.7%	13.9%	12.7%	1.2%	4.03	3.28	—
2026	23	AA RAW	CIN	6	6	25	109	28	15	7	100%	4.2	25.7%	13.8%	11.9%	6.4%	6.84	6.20	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	CIN	1	1	6	27	3	6	1	100%	6.4	11.7%	21.1%	-9.3%	2.7%	6.65	6.65	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	78	348	87	51	11	—	—	25.0%	14.6%	10.5%	3.1%	5.59	5.62	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	94	395	56	72	11	100%	5.5	14.3%	18.2%	-3.9%	2.7%	6.21	6.07	-1.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	95	400	63	65	11	100%	5.9	15.8%	16.3%	-0.6%	2.7%	5.86	5.71	-0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	95	400	66	63	11	100%	5.9	16.6%	15.9%	0.8%	2.7%	5.67	5.59	-0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	93	394	66	62	11	100%	5.8	16.8%	15.7%	1.0%	2.8%	5.61	5.59	-0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	90	382	64	61	11	100%	6.0	16.6%	15.9%	0.7%	2.9%	5.65	5.68	-0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	86	365	60	59	11	100%	6.2	16.4%	16.1%	0.3%	3.0%	5.74	5.81	-0.9
2033	30	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	81	343	55	56	11	100%	5.8	16.0%	16.4%	-0.4%	3.2%	5.89	5.98	-1.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	40	169	24	31	5	100%	5.7	14.3%	18.2%	-3.9%	2.7%	6.21	6.07	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	63	266	42	43	7	100%	5.7	15.8%	16.3%	-0.6%	2.7%	5.86	5.71	-0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	75	317	53	50	9	100%	6.2	16.6%	15.9%	0.8%	2.7%	5.67	5.59	-0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	13	13	80	338	57	53	9	100%	6.2	16.8%	15.7%	1.0%	2.8%	5.61	5.59	-0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	81	342	57	54	10	100%	5.8	16.6%	15.9%	0.7%	2.9%	5.65	5.68	-0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	13	13	79	334	55	54	10	100%	6.1	16.4%	16.1%	0.3%	3.0%	5.74	5.81	-0.8
2033	30	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	75	317	51	52	10	100%	6.2	16.0%	16.4%	-0.4%	3.2%	5.89	5.98	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		83	83	492	2076	337	337	60	100%	5.9	16.2%	16.2%	-0.0%	2.9%	5.77	5.37	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	137	137	24	100%	5.9	16.2%	16.2%	-0.0%	2.9%	5.77	5.37	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		47	39	178	791	133	135	22	83%	3.8	16.8%	17.1%	-0.3%	2.7%	4.64	5.35	-6.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	44	200	887	149	152	24	83%	3.8	16.8%	17.1%	-0.3%	2.7%	4.64	5.35	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Hayden (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.65	11.7%	21.1%	2.7%	—	5.79	15.6%	-1.2%	283	-0.86	—	—	—
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	86
Johnny Hellweg R 2015 · 5.96 FIP	26	SP	5.96	9.9%	19.0%	2.4%	.269	4.06	15.2%	2.0%	48	-1.90	2.98	109	81
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	78
Osman Gutierrez R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	22	SP	5.88	13.9%	16.2%	3.5%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	189	76
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	75
Donal Montas R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	21	SP	5.66	8.4%	13.3%	2.9%	.268	4.87	10.2%	-4.0%	78	-0.79	4.10	156	74
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	3.37	241	74
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	74
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	73
Stiven Cruz R 2023 · 6.36 FIP	21	SP-	6.36	13.6%	14.8%	4.6%	.312	4.91	17.3%	6.4%	192	-1.45	2.84	426	73
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	73
Yoan López R 2016 · 5.84 FIP	23	SP	5.84	10.4%	12.6%	3.7%	.282	3.67	25.5%	17.4%	153	-2.17	2.21	377	73
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	72
Osiris Ramirez R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	21	SP	5.47	12.6%	19.4%	1.8%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	104	72
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	72
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	72
Aaron Davenport R 2023 · 6.16 FIP	23	SP-	6.16	14.3%	14.7%	4.4%	.272	4.44	17.7%	7.9%	276	-1.72	4.04	498	72
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	71
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.6%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	71
Jaison Vilera R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	11.2%	12.8%	3.4%	.311	7.05	13.8%	5.5%	87	+1.43	3.67	256	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	88	15.6%	16.8%	1.10	5.89
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32