Keith Jones II

OF Frisco RoughRiders

Age 25 L/L 6'1" / 220 lbs AA HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #852MiLBFA 2034

ETA2029FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	AATEX	201	.244/.335/.381	3	8	63	—	.201/.265/.304
2025	23	A+TEX	294	.270/.408/.451	10	15	81	—	.216/.305/.344
2026	24	AATEX	414	.228/.342/.378	10	16	66	—	.196/.283/.314
2027PROJ2% MLB	25	MLBTEX	6	.204/.284/.327	0	0	73	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	26	MLBTEX	111	.208/.289/.344	3	2	78	-0.2
2029PROJ42% MLB	27	MLBTEX	162	.209/.289/.345	4	3	78	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Chase%84

BB%79

Speed64

Whiff%53

ISO51

wOBA47

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsShayne Fontana (age 25) · Will Robertson (age 25) · Brock Lundquist (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .284 / .327

PA6

HR0

K%33

BB%17

BABIP284

ISO119

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	22	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	23	23	4	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	174	174	174	348		286	39	0	157	-37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	201	176	43	9	3	3	23	51	1	8	2	244	335	381	716	136	325	25	11	322	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	294	237	64	13	0	10	51	79	4	15	5	270	408	451	859	181	362	27	17	385	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	414	347	79	18	2	10	56	111	4	16	5	228	342	378	719	150	300	27	14	322	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	23	23	3	0	0	0	0	12	0	0	0	130	130	130	261		270	52	0	114	-37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	201	184	37	7	3	2	15	64	1	8	2	201	265	304	569	103	298	32	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	294	259	56	12	0	7	29	101	4	15	5	216	305	344	648	127	315	34	10	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	414	363	71	15	2	8	40	135	4	16	5	196	283	314	597	118	274	33	10	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	23	23	3	0	0	0	0	12	0	0	0	130	130	130	261		273	52	0	114	-37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	—	23	23	4	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	174	174	174	348		286	39	0	157	-37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	495	443	94	19	3	10	44	165	5	23	7	212	291	336	627	124	311	33	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	495	413	107	22	3	13	74	130	5	23	7	259	378	421	799	162	346	26	15	359	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	414	363	71	15	2	8	40	135	4	16	5	196	283	314	597	118	281	33	10	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	—	414	347	79	18	2	10	56	111	4	16	5	228	342	378	719	150	300	27	14	322	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	23	23	3	0	0	0	0	12	0	0	0	130	130	130	261		270	52	0	114	-37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	495	443	94	19	3	10	44	165	5	23	7	212	291	336	627	124	308	33	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	414	367	71	15	2	8	40	135	4	16	5	193	283	311	593	117	274	33	10	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	23	23	3	0	0	0	0	12	0	0	0	130	130	130	261		270	52	0	114	-37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	495	443	94	19	3	10	44	165	5	23	7	212	291	336	627	124	308	33	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	414	367	71	15	2	8	40	135	4	16	5	193	283	311	593	117	274	33	10	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TEX	2%	380	339	69	14	2	8	35	119	3	9	3	203	284	323	607	120	285	31	9	275	73	-12	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	TEX	2%	6	5	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	204	284	327	612	124	284	33	17	277	73	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	31%	359	320	67	14	2	8	33	111	3	7	2	207	288	339	627	132	285	31	9	283	78	-9	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	42%	384	343	71	14	2	9	35	118	3	7	2	208	289	340	629	132	285	31	9	284	78	-10	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	31%	111	99	21	4	1	3	10	34	1	2	1	208	289	344	633	136	285	31	9	285	78	-3	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	42%	162	145	31	6	1	4	15	50	1	3	1	209	289	345	635	136	284	31	9	286	78	-4	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	273	244	52	10	2	7	25	84	2	5	2	213	292	357	648	143	290	31	9	286	72	-7	+0	-1	-2	+6	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	125	24	5	17	60	200	5	12	5	215	295	361	656	146	293	31	9	286	72	-17	+0	-2	-4	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	1995	1777	364	74	11	41	181	642	18	61	18	205	285	328	613	123	292	32	9	275	72	-30	+2	-3	-6	+23	-1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	119	24	4	13	59	209	6	20	6	206	286	328	614	123	294	32	9	275	72	-18	+1	-2	-4	+14	-0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#2Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#3Eric Anthony'89-'97 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,243 PA	3.4	2,243	78	24	225*	300*	410*	-22	-22	0.1	0.6
/162	664	23	7	-6.7	-6.6	0.0	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	279	7	5	209	286	341	-2	-4	-0.1	-0.0
/162	664	15	13	-4.0	-9.5	-0.2	pk7: 0
#4Jolbert Cabrera'98-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	18	38	247*	295*	354*	-3	-9	-1.1	-0.7
/162	664	8	16	-1.4	-4.0	-0.5	pk7: -0
#5Seth Brownlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,799 PA	2.7	1,799	74	24	227	293	421	-23	-34	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	27	9	-8.6	-12.4	-0.3	pk7: -1
#6Rip Russell'39-'47 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	29	4	236*	279*	389*	-16	-12	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	13	2	-6.9	-5.1	-1.2	pk7: -3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Keith Jones II (OGILVIE)	25	30→40	50→55	40	50	201/281/320	119	285	6	8	31%	9%	73	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA	25	40	41→45	48→55	46	195/273/300	105	283	8	8	32%	9%	63	-1.3	215/297/319	104	298	10	14	29%	8%	78	-0.3	219/303/314	95	294	10	19	27%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Will Robertson 2023 · AA	25	38→41	46→50	39→45	38	193/255/322	129	283	13	4	35%	6%	63	-1.4	199/261/350	151	283	17	6	34%	7%	71	-0.8	194/259/347	153	271	17	5	34%	7%	68	-0.7
✕Brock Lundquist 2021 · AA	25	43→44	44→50	45	42	213/275/327	114	293	11	7	30%	7%	70	-0.8	208/276/321	113	350	12	8	41%	7%	70	-0.9	153/237/242	90	288	14	0	48%	8%	38	-0.7
✕Justin Toerner 2022 · AAA	25	40	43→40	45→50	44	196/280/303	107	288	12	8	34%	9%	68	-1.0	187/282/293	106	278	11	11	34%	10%	67	-1.1	158/269/254	96	234	10	12	34%	11%	53	-1.0
✕Mitch Walding 2018 · AA	25	39→45	47→50	43→40	41	197/267/332	134	301	15	4	38%	8%	69	-0.9	202/294/355	153	334	18	4	41%	11%	85	+0.2	185/286/336	151	327	19	3	44%	11%	76	-0.2
✕John Whittleman 2012 · AA	25	35→45	48→50	43→45	48	188/265/330	143	245	16	3	30%	10%	68	-1.0	198/284/348	150	285	17	5	34%	11%	80	-0.2	169/278/326	156	244	18	1	36%	13%	72	-0.5
✕Matt Lloyd 2021 · A	25	44→42	45	46→50	41	216/277/345	128	310	13	9	33%	7%	75	-0.5	213/280/359	146	311	17	7	35%	7%	80	-0.1	209/281/333	124	278	14	12	29%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Jacob Heyward 2021 · AA	25	41→40	44→45	44→50	47	199/291/316	117	303	12	11	35%	10%	75	-0.5	189/269/323	134	288	17	6	38%	8%	69	-0.9	161/244/293	131	239	18	2	39%	8%	50	-1.2
✕Anthony Seigler 2024 · AA	25	37→40	42→45	45→55	57	183/289/284	100	237	9	12	25%	12%	68	-1.0	214/304/334	120	266	10	22	22%	11%	84	+0.1	221/312/347	126	270	10	25	21%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Tyler Horan 2016 · A	25	38→42	51→55	44→45	41	203/261/360	157	268	19	8	32%	7%	74	-0.6	215/267/348	133	298	14	7	31%	6%	72	-0.7	232/279/381	149	313	17	6	31%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Orlando Martinez 2023 · AAA	25	46→48	44→50	45→50	40	226/270/347	121	302	11	9	29%	6%	72	-0.7	226/278/339	113	283	10	8	23%	7%	74	-0.6	223/280/330	107	273	9	7	21%	7%	71	-0.5
✕Devin Foyle 2022 · AA	25	41→39	46→45	48→45	44	207/273/338	131	273	14	10	29%	7%	72	-0.7	214/284/324	110	273	10	7	24%	8%	74	-0.6	194/281/260	67	243	5	0	21%	9%	55	-0.7
✕Mike Papi 2018 · AAA	25	44→48	44→45	44→45	49	216/293/330	114	281	12	6	26%	9%	78	-0.3	219/293/330	111	301	10	6	28%	9%	78	-0.3	206/288/313	107	297	8	1	31%	10%	70	-0.3
✕Michael Burgess 2014 · AA	25	38→43	46→50	43→45	43	197/253/327	130	251	14	2	28%	7%	63	-1.4	214/257/360	146	275	14	6	27%	5%	71	-0.8	239/273/427	188	290	18	6	24%	4%	93	+0.5
✕Chantz Mack 2016 · AA	25	43→46	42→45	44→45	44	210/271/316	106	282	9	6	28%	7%	66	-1.1	215/289/323	108	294	11	5	28%	9%	75	-0.5	212/293/317	105	285	12	3	28%	10%	72	-0.4
✕Morgan McCullough 2023 · AA	25	44	43→45	46→50	46	212/294/326	114	295	10	10	30%	8%	78	-0.3	203/284/321	118	290	11	14	31%	9%	73	-0.6	183/271/304	121	262	11	17	32%	9%	64	-0.6
✕Grant Witherspoon 2022 · A	25	40→46	49→50	48→50	40	209/259/352	143	281	18	12	32%	6%	70	-0.8	213/273/350	137	296	16	13	32%	7%	75	-0.5	200/266/329	130	278	14	13	32%	7%	65	-0.7
✕Bligh Madris 2021 · AA	25	45→48	42→50	42→50	42	219/267/325	106	286	10	5	26%	6%	66	-1.1	226/287/348	122	294	11	7	25%	7%	79	-0.2	219/286/346	126	287	12	8	26%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Luis Liberato 2021 · AA	25	44→50	47→50	45→50	42	222/269/351	129	282	15	8	27%	6%	73	-0.6	226/285/365	139	309	14	8	29%	8%	82	+0.0	221/286/368	148	299	15	9	30%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Chad Spanberger 2021 · AA	25	41→42	48→55	47→45	40	214/264/356	143	277	17	8	29%	6%	74	-0.6	196/253/328	132	305	15	7	39%	6%	63	-1.4	157/217/287	130	243	17	3	42%	6%	38	-1.7

Keith Jones II

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps